This week · as of Wed Nov 4

6-2, on track for 9-3 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerOhio StateMichiganMichiganPenn StatePenn StateDynastythe sport's summitBlue Bloodpermanent top tierPower Programperennial contenderOhio State when he took over: 78.5 (Blue Blood), its final 2018 readingtook overOhio State, 2019: 13-1, Blue BloodOhio State, 2019: 13-1, Blue Blood201913-1Ohio State, 2020: 7-1, Blue Blood20207-1Ohio State, 2021: 11-2, Blue Blood202111-2Ohio State, 2022: 11-2, Blue Blood202211-2Ohio State, 2023: 11-2, Blue Blood202311-2Ohio State, 2024: 14-2, Blue Blood, national champion202414-2◆Ohio State, 2025: 12-2, Blue Blood202512-2Ohio State, 2026: 6-2, Blue BloodOhio State, 2026: 6-2, Blue Blood20266-2+5.0best: 2024bracket: consecutive-win streak · ◆ national title · gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes16-game win streak (2024-25)

Bowls and playoffs: 6-5 · won 1 of 2 national title games

’19L’20W’20L’21W’22L’23L’24W’24W’24W’24W★’25L

Show all 11 games
2019 semiFiesta BowlL 23-292020 semiSugar BowlW 49-282020CFP title gameL 24-522021Rose BowlW 48-452022 semiPeach BowlL 41-422023Cotton Bowl ClassicL 3-142024CFP first roundW 42-172024 QFRose BowlW 41-212024 semiCotton Bowl ClassicW 28-142024 ★CFP title gameW 34-232025 QFCotton Bowl ClassicL 14-24

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 18-30 at USC Sat Oct 31
  • This season6-2
  • On track for9-3 regular season
  • Nextvs. Oregon Sat Nov 7
  • Stature2nd of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • AP poll #2 → #11 down nine
  • Playoff odds 84% → 80% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Saturday: vs. Oregon

Sat Nov 7, 3:30 pm ET CBS · Oregon is 5-3 · Day vs. Dan Lanning: 1-1 · Ohio State’s chance to win: 72% (the site’s model)

Dozens of stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from many outlets

On the podcasts

Fans are frustrated with Ohio State

10-3 is different from 9-3 though. I have a very hard time imagining a situation in which the committee would leave out the Big10 runner up, especially if it’s a brand as big as Ohio State.

I would think with sayin for Ohio state , they not only win last game, but they would be sitting at top 8 at the very least if they did lose. Because of the loss of sayin and the second game, they drop.

Never had a doubt; The @rooster.info was forged in the darkest of fires (the Ohio State football beat)

Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more negative than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases

Offense: 20th of 138 per play. Defense: 7th.

Offense, per play20thOffense, points per trip inside the 406thDefense, per play7thDefense, knocking offenses off schedule4thWorstBest
Offense, per play20th of 138Offense, points per trip inside the 406th of 138Defense, per play7th of 138Defense, knocking offenses off schedule4th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Ohio State. The other two rows are where Ohio State stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7vs. Oregon (5-3)CBS72%
  2. Sat Nov 14vs. Northwestern (6-2)68%
  3. Sat Nov 21at Nebraska (5-3)72%
  4. Sat Nov 28vs. Michigan (5-3)FOX83%

Percent: Ohio State’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Ohio State has held at 2nd of 138 FBS programs by stature after every game this season.

  1. Oct 26–Nov 1L 18-30 at USC56 headlines · 6th of 138WATCH: Ohio State coach Ryan Day reacts to loss at USC Saturday Yahoo Sports
  2. Oct 19–25No game40 headlines · 8th of 138Ryan Day: Ohio State planning to be without QB Julian Sayin through postseason ESPN
  3. Oct 12–18W 19-15 at Indiana38 headlines · 4th of 138Ryan Day built his name on QB excellence. With no Julian Sayin, he faces his toughest test The New York Times
  4. Oct 5–11W 45-16 vs. Maryland39 headlines · 5th of 138Ohio State head coach Ryan Day watches son lead team to win on senior night USA Today
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4W 31-14 at Iowa37 headlines · 11th of 138Ohio State coach Ryan Day pens special letter to kids at Iowa Hospital Yahoo Sports
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 42-19 vs. Illinois45 headlines · 8th of 138WATCH: Ohio State coach Ryan Day discusses the win over Illinois Yahoo Sports

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Ohio State’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Elite on both sides of the ball — 95th percentile offense, 94th percentile defense.

Ohio State, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

A+
of which —95th
efficiency — 95th percentile success rate, 2019–25
A+94th
Standard-downs success
A84th
Passing-downs success
A88th
Trench push (line yards)
B+72nd
Red-zone scoring rate
B67th
Power-success (short yardage)
A85th
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

A+
of which —94th
94th percentile SP+ defense, 2019–25
A82nd
Front-7 havoc
A81st
Secondary havoc
B69th
Stuff rate (run defense)
C+49th
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.

Poach watch

This winter

7%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled34th-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▲ Higher
    Age 47 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
  • ▼ Lower
    Paid $12.6 million in 2025, the 99th percentile of published FBS head-coach pay · up 25% on the season before
  • ▲ Higher
    26-4 over his previous two seasons here
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.