Mississippi State: a football coaching history

Big movers show how many stature points they built or lost against what they inherited; steadier tenures show the tier they reached instead. A small blue arrow marks a real System Shift at that changeover — how hard the offense’s run/pass identity flipped.

2024–now

Jeff Lebby Steady

Jeff Lebby slid Mississippi State from National Program I to National Program II in 3 seasons.

No outlier style signal this stint

vs. Ole Miss

−7.7 pts over 3 seasons · bottom 22% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Bob Toledo’s Tulane run (2007–2011)

8th-best Mississippi State tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed Zach Arnett (2022–2023).

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2024	2025	2026
Record & result
Record	2-10	5-8	4-4
Postseason	—	L bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#28	#28	#23
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	46.8	41.5	45.2
Coordinators
OC	—	—	—
DC	Coleman Hutzler / Matt Barnes	Coleman Hutzler / Matt Barnes	Zach Arnett
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	43	37	27
Defense	10	14	19
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	46.1	40.4	51.3
Red-zone pass%	33.0	33.6	57.6
4th-down go%opp. territory	60.0	39.4	40.9

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

-18.9 pts

#175 of 208 · bottom quarter

Defense vs. talent

-46.3 pts

#209 of 208 · bottom quarter

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Roster construction · portal era

A portal-built roster.

Portal arrivals

3.1★ avg rating

Portal departures

102

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-24

#19 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.

Avg. size (raw)

6′3″, 252 lbs

across 68 of 78 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+11.6 lbs

#3 of 255 · top quarter

Avg. class year

#240 of 255 · bottom quarter

Top states: TX (12), FL (11), MS (8), GA (7), OH (5)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

60.0

position-weighted

Talent lost

60.1

position-weighted

Net

-0.1

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Luke Kromenhoek (QB) from Florida State

Biggest loss: Will Rogers (QB) to Washington

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

DC: Coleman Hutzler / Matt Barnes (co) → Zach Arnett · 2026

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

209 lbs

6′1″ avg · #512 of 767 · middle half

Running back

210 lbs

5′10″ avg · #284 of 791 · middle half

Wide receiver

185 lbs

6′0″ avg · #714 of 791 · bottom quarter

Tight end

242 lbs

6′4″ avg · #500 of 731 · middle half

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

323 lbs

6′5″ avg · #30 of 779 · top quarter

D-line

300 lbs

6′3″ avg · #91 of 753 · top quarter

Linebacker

234 lbs

6′3″ avg · #127 of 772 · top quarter

Cornerback

188 lbs

6′1″ avg · #489 of 771 · middle half

Safety

202 lbs

6′1″ avg · #67 of 346 · top quarter

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Buys Interior line via the portal

82%

#9 of 224 stints

Buys Linebacker via the portal

62%

#38 of 225 stints

Postseason detail2025: Lost to Wake Forest 29-43 Duke's Mayo Bowl

2 NFL Draft picks: Brenen Thompson (2026), Seydou Traore (2026)

−7.7

11-22

2017, 2023

Greg Knox Short tenure

2017 defense ranked in the 96th percentile nationally — elite

vs. Ole Miss

2-1

2022–2023

Zach Arnett Short tenure

No outlier style signal this stint

vs. Ole Miss

5-6

2020–2022

Mike Leach Steady

Mike Leach held Mississippi State at Power Program III for 3 seasons.

Averaged a 71% pass rate — among the most pass-heavy stretches in FBS since 2004

vs. Ole Miss

−0.8 pts over 3 seasons · top 36% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Brad Scott’s South Carolina run (1994–1998)

1st-best Mississippi State tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed Joe Moorhead (2018–2019) · succeeded by Zach Arnett (2022–2023).

System Shift, on arrival

System Shift, on departure

Season	2020	2021	2022
Record & result
Record	4-7	7-6	8-4
Postseason	W bowl	L bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#27	#25	#27
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	73.3	72.3	68.2
Coordinators
OC	—	—	—
DC	Zach Arnett	Zach Arnett	Zach Arnett
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	15	77	50
Defense	72	44	90
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	75.9	73.2	65.2
Red-zone pass%	65.8	73.4	69.4
4th-down go%opp. territory	41.9	27.8	45.2

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

-11.8 pts

#156 of 208 · middle half

Defense vs. talent

+10.6 pts

#62 of 208 · middle half

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals

3.1★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-28

#135 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)

6′1″, 213 lbs

across 14 of 18 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+3.6 lbs

#141 of 255 · middle half

Avg. class year

#1 of 255 · top quarter

Top states: TX (3), AL (2), MS (1), CA (1), FL (1)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

50.3

position-weighted

Talent lost

53.9

position-weighted

Net

-3.6

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Chance Lovertich (QB) from South Alabama

Biggest loss: Allan Walters (QB) to Arkansas State

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

212 lbs

6′2″ avg · #406 of 767 · middle half

Running back

213 lbs

5′11″ avg · #189 of 791 · top quarter

Wide receiver

195 lbs

6′1″ avg · #316 of 791 · middle half

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

312 lbs

6′5″ avg · #280 of 779 · middle half

D-line

286 lbs

6′3″ avg · #346 of 753 · middle half

Linebacker

238 lbs

6′2″ avg · #61 of 772 · top quarter

Cornerback

185 lbs

6′0″ avg · #610 of 771 · bottom quarter

Safety

202 lbs

6′1″ avg · #50 of 346 · top quarter

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Grows Tackle from high school

100%

#198 of 223 stints

Postseason detail2020: Beat Tulsa 28-26 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl2021: Lost to Texas Tech 7-34 AutoZone Liberty Bowl

6 NFL Draft picks: Marquiss Spencer (2021), Kylin Hill (2021), Charles Cross (2022), Martin Emerson (2022), Emmanuel Forbes (2023), Cameron Young (2023)

2 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Charles Cross (2021), Emmanuel Forbes (2022)

−0.8

19-17

2018–2019

Joe Moorhead Short tenure

2018 defense ranked in the 99th percentile nationally — elite

vs. Ole Miss

14-12

2009–2017

Dan Mullen Builder

Dan Mullen raised the Bulldogs from Regional Program II to National Program I.

Swung 22.2 points of pass rate — #11 of 449 FBS coaching stints since 2004

vs. Ole Miss

+22.2 pts over 9 seasons · top 2% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Gary Barnett’s Northwestern run (1992–1998)

3rd-best Mississippi State tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed Sylvester Croom (2004–2008) · succeeded by Joe Moorhead (2018–2019).

System Shift, on arrival

System Shift, on departure

Season	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Record & result
Record	5-7	9-4	7-6	8-5	7-6	10-3	9-4	6-7	8-4
Postseason	—	W bowl	W bowl	L bowl	W bowl	L bowl	W bowl	W bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#18	#30	#41	#22	#24	#36	#18	#28	#24
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	32.4	31.8	40.5	50.0	44.9	42.3	53.9	43.6	35.8
Coordinators
OC	—	—	—	—	—	Billy Gonzales / John Hevesy	Billy Gonzales / John Hevesy	Billy Gonzales / John Hevesy	Billy Gonzales / John Hevesy
DC	—	—	—	—	—	Geoff Collins	Manny Diaz	Peter Sirmon	Todd Grantham
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	37	70	9	30	64	90	86	84	50
Defense	85	85	61	39	59	52	43	18	96
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	27.5	30.2	41.6	48.9	41.6	46.1	61.2	39.9	32.0
Red-zone pass%	30.6	21.2	37.8	44.3	32.2	41.7	52.8	40.0	25.8
4th-down go%opp. territory	33.3	27.3	12.5	33.3	33.3	37.8	35.6	36.2	35.7

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

+14.6 pts

#52 of 208 · top quarter

Defense vs. talent

-5.7 pts

#131 of 208 · middle half

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

DC: Geoff Collins → Manny Diaz · 2015

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

DC: Manny Diaz → Peter Sirmon · 2016

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Punter from high school

100%

#29 of 29 stints

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Postseason detail2010: Beat Michigan 52-14 Progressive Gator Bowl2011: Beat Wake Forest 23-17 Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl2012: Lost to Northwestern 20-34 TAXSLAYER.com GATOR BOWL2013: Beat Rice 44-7 AutoZone LIBERTY BOWL2014: Lost to Georgia Tech 34-49 Bowl2015: Beat NC State 51-28 Bowl2016: Beat Miami (OH) 17-16 St. Petersburg Bowl

26 NFL Draft picks: Anthony Dixon (2010), Jamar Chaney (2010), Derek Sherrod (2011), K.J. Wright (2011), Pernell McPhee (2011), Chris White (2011), Fletcher Cox (2012), Vick Ballard (2012) + 18 more

+22.2

69-46

2004–2008

Sylvester Croom Steady

Sylvester Croom slid Mississippi State from National Program III to Regional Program I in 5 seasons.

2006 offense ranked in the 3th percentile nationally — historically bad

vs. Ole Miss

−6.4 pts over 5 seasons · bottom 28% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Walt Bell’s Massachusetts run (2019–2021)

13th-best Mississippi State tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed Jackie Sherrill (1991–2003) · succeeded by Dan Mullen (2009–2017).

System Shift, on departure

Season	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
Record & result
Record	3-8	3-8	3-9	8-5	4-8
Postseason	—	—	—	W bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#56	#28	#40	#34	#53
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	42.0	44.0	47.9	42.3	49.1
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	9	12	3	4	9
Defense	65	32	67	97	45
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	26.4	30.0	34.1	31.7	34.8
Red-zone pass%	26.5	38.9	33.9	30.3	34.8
4th-down go%opp. territory	45.0	22.7	38.7	30.3	32.4

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2007: Beat UCF 10-3 Bowl

4 NFL Draft picks: David Stewart (2005), Ronald Fields (2005), Jerious Norwood (2006), Antonio Johnson (2007)

−6.4

21-38

1991–2003

Jackie Sherrill Steady≈

Jackie Sherrill moved the Bulldogs from Regional Program I to National Program I in 13 seasons.

vs. Ole Miss

+11.6 pts over 13 seasons · bottom 48% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Mark Stoops’s Kentucky run (2013–2025)

5th-best Mississippi State tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed Rockey Felker (1986–1990) · succeeded by Sylvester Croom (2004–2008).

Season	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003
Record & result
Record	7-5	7-5	3-6-2	8-4	3-8	5-6	7-4	8-5	10-2	8-4	3-8	3-9	2-10
Postseason	L bowl	L bowl	—	L bowl	—	—	—	L bowl	W bowl	W bowl	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Postseason detail1991: Lost to Air Force 15-38 Bowl1992: Lost to North Carolina 17-21 Bowl1994: Lost to NC State 24-28 Bowl1998: Lost to Tennessee 14-24 Bowl1998: Lost to Texas 11-38 Bowl1999: Beat Clemson 17-7 Bowl2000: Beat Texas A&M 43-41 Bowl

33 NFL Draft picks: Keo Coleman (1992), Kevin Henry (1993), Olanda Truitt (1993), Marc Woodard (1993), Willie Harris (1993), Herman Carroll (1994), Kendell Watkins (1995), Jesse James (1995) + 25 more

+11.6

74-76-2

1986–1990

Rockey Felker Steady

Rockey Felker slid Mississippi State from National Program II to National Program III in 5 seasons.

vs. Ole Miss

−7.0 pts over 5 seasons · bottom 25% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: George Chaump’s Navy run (1990–1994)

11th-best Mississippi State tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed Emory Bellard (1979–1985) · succeeded by Jackie Sherrill (1991–2003).

5 NFL Draft picks: Don Smith (1987), Kirby Jackson (1987), Jesse Anderson (1990), James Williams (1990), Robert Young (1991)

−7.0

21-34

1979–1985

Emory Bellard Steady

Emory Bellard moved the Bulldogs from National Program II to National Program I in 7 seasons.

vs. Ole Miss

+4.9 pts over 7 seasons · top 34% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Larry Smith’s Missouri run (1994–2000)

4th-best Mississippi State tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed Bob Tyler (1973–1978) · succeeded by Rockey Felker (1986–1990).

Season	1979	1980	1981	1982	1983	1984	1985
Record & result
Record	3-8	9-3	8-4	5-6	3-8	4-7	5-6
Postseason	—	L bowl	W bowl	—	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1980: Lost to Nebraska 17-31 Bowl1981: Beat Kansas 10-0 Bowl

9 NFL Draft picks: James Jones (1980), Kenny Johnson (1980), Mardye McDole (1981), Tyrone Keys (1981), Johnie Cooks (1982), Glen Collins (1982), Michael Haddix (1983), Glen Young (1983) + 1 more

+4.9

37-42

1973–1978

Bob Tyler Builder≈

Bob Tyler raised the Bulldogs from Regional Program III to National Program II.

vs. Ole Miss

+13.9 pts over 6 seasons · top 9% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Urban Meyer’s Florida run (2005–2010)

10th-best Mississippi State tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed Charles Shira (1967–1972) · succeeded by Emory Bellard (1979–1985).

Season	1973	1974	1975	1976	1977	1978
Record & result
Record	4-5-2	9-3	6-4-1	9-2	5-6	6-5
Postseason	—	W bowl	—	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1974: Beat North Carolina 26-24 Bowl

9 NFL Draft picks: Wayne Jones (1974), Jimmy Webb (1975), Steve Freeman (1975), Jim Eidson (1976), Larry Buie (1976), Stan Black (1977), Dennis Johnson (1978), Bruce Threadgill (1978) + 1 more

+13.9

39-25-3

1967–1972

Charles Shira Steady≈

Charles Shira slid the Bulldogs from National Program II to Regional Program I in 6 seasons.

vs. Ole Miss

−13.6 pts over 6 seasons · bottom 2% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Butch Davis’s Miami run (1995–2000)

12th-best Mississippi State tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed Paul Davis (1962–1966) · succeeded by Bob Tyler (1973–1978).

2 NFL Draft picks: D.D. Lewis (1968), Ken Phares (1973)

−13.6

16-45-2

1962–1966

Paul Davis Steady

Paul Davis held Mississippi State at National Program II for 5 seasons.

vs. Ole Miss

+2.4 pts over 5 seasons · top 23% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Jeff Brohm’s Louisville run (2023–now)

7th-best Mississippi State tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed Wade Walker (1956–1961) · succeeded by Charles Shira (1967–1972).

+2.4

20-28-2

1956–1961

Wade Walker Steady

Wade Walker held Mississippi State at National Program II for 6 seasons.

vs. Ole Miss

−5.1 pts over 6 seasons · bottom 21% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Bryan Harsin’s Boise State run (2014–2020)

6th-best Mississippi State tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed Darrell Royal (1954–1955) · succeeded by Paul Davis (1962–1966).

−5.1

22-32-2

1954–1955

Darrell Royal Short tenure

vs. Ole Miss

12-8

1952–1953

Murray Warmath Short tenure

vs. Ole Miss

10-6-3

1949–1951

Slick Morton Steady

Slick Morton slid the Bulldogs from National Program I to National Program II in 3 seasons.

vs. Ole Miss

−9.7 pts over 3 seasons · bottom 14% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Brent Venables’s Oklahoma run (2022–now)

9th-best Mississippi State tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed Allyn McKeen (1944–1948) · succeeded by Murray Warmath (1952–1953).

−9.7

8-18-1

1939–1942, 1944–1948

Allyn McKeen Builder

Allyn McKeen raised the Bulldogs from Regional Program II to National Program I.

vs. Ole Miss

+20.2 pts over 9 seasons · top 3% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Gary Barnett’s Northwestern run (1992–1998)

2nd-best Mississippi State tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed Spike Nelson (1938) · succeeded by Slick Morton (1949–1951).

+20.2

65-19-3

1938

Spike Nelson Short tenure

vs. Ole Miss

4-6

1936–1937

Ralph Sasse Short tenure

vs. Ole Miss

12-7-2