CFB Zeitgeist Score
33
Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by interceptions at the 74th percentile.
Hunter Watson
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
1,108 PASS YDS · 5 PASS TD · 276 RUSH YDS
2026 Outlook
Returning to Sam Houston for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Quarterback · Sam Houston
Returning around him
- 90% of 2024 offensive production back (Strong continuity)
- Transfer portal: +5 net (20 in / 15 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Sam Houston · Last season: 2-10 · Talent rank #123 · 2026 recruiting class #122
QB · SAM HOUSTON · CONFERENCE USA
Hunter Watson
- 4
- #10
- 6-3 | 210 lb
- Celina, TX
Heisman Heat
#1070
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP QB AWARD
Davey O'Brien
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR05 · Part-time starter
Part-time starter. Splitting first-team reps.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
—
CFB
College
Sam Houston
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No recruiting profile is on file for this player. | ||
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in passing yards (1108).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Hunter Watson
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
50
Mixed Sentiment
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=2
- National · n=1
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Hunter Watson
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the passing totals stand
Through 7g
1,108Pass yards
5Pass TDs
4INT
Per game
158.3Pass yards
1Pass TDs
1INT
Projected (13g)
2,058Pass yards
9Pass TDs
7INT
To hit 3,000-yard season (currently 1,108): needs 315.3/game over remaining 6.
To hit 4,000-yard season (currently 1,108): needs 482/game over remaining 6.
To hit 25 passing TDs (currently 5): needs 3.3/game over remaining 6.
To hit 30 passing TDs (currently 5): needs 4.2/game over remaining 6.
To hit 35 passing TDs (currently 5): needs 5/game over remaining 6.
Why this is a two-channel quarterback case
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
The unusual part of Hunter Watson's case is that the production comes in two channels, not one. For Sam Houston, he has 1,108 passing yards and 5 touchdown passes, but he also adds 276 rushing yards and 2 rushing scores. That kind of dual-threat load tends to create a more resilient Heisman case because the offense can tilt the game in multiple ways.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
QB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Steady volume | Dual-threat against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Passing Efficiency
CMP
104 66th
ATT
182 69th
CMP%
57.1% 33rd
Y/A
6.1 34th
Passing Production
YDS
1,108 64th
TD
5 64th
INT
4 36th
Rushing
CAR
74 80th
YDS
276 84th
YPC
3.7 61st
TD
2 73rd
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 7 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 24-41@ Western Kentucky | 19/30 | 209 | 0 | 1 | 7.0 | 41.3 | |
| Wk 1 | L 21-38vs UNLV | 11/22 | 101 | 0 | 0 | 4.6 | 47.7 | |
| Wk 4 | L 0-55@ Texas | 13/25 | 86 | 0 | 1 | 3.4 | 20.6 | |
| Wk 6 | L 10-37@ New Mexico State | 22/34 | 222 | 1 | 1 | 6.5 | 22.8 | Season-high 222 yds |
| Wk 7 | L 27-29vs Jacksonville State | 12/19 | 136 | 3 | 0 | 7.2 | 44.5 | 3 TD passes |
| Wk 8 | L 17-35vs UTEP | 13/19 | 161 | 1 | 0 | 8.5 | 58.7 | |
| Wk 10 | L 14-55@ Louisiana Tech | 14/33 | 193 | 0 | 1 | 5.8 | 21.9 | |
| Total | 104/182 | 1108 | 5 | 4 | 6.1 | 36.8 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2025Sam Houston2-10HC: Phil Longo · Balanced
| Season | Team | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Sam Houston | 104 | 182 | 57.1% | 1,108 | 6.1 | 5 | 4 | 113.0 | -- | -- |
| Career | 1 loaded season | 104 | 182 | 57.1% | 1,108 | 6.1 | 5 | 4 | 113.0 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Sam Houston | 74 | 276 | 3.7 | 2 | -- |
| Career | 1 loaded season | 74 | 276 | 3.7 | 2 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.
How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Passing yards | 1,108 | #137/382 | 64th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Pass TD | 5 | #149/407 | 64th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completions | 104 | #133/383 | 66th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completion % | 57.1% | #256/383 | 33rd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Yards / attempt | 6.1 | #254/382 | 34th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 276 | #66/408 | 84th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Value | Passing WEPA | +0.13 | #178/200 | 12th pct | Opponent-adjusted passing value | 180 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Role share | 61.0% | #14/428 | 97th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Attempts | 182 | #129/407 | 69th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Interceptions | 4 | #263/407 | 36th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Carries | 74 | #84/408 | 80th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 55 | #39/391 | 90th pct | Metricvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 3.7 | #158/407 | 61st pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 2 | #113/408 | 73rd pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Pass share | 85.0% | #98/428 | 77th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 75.3% | #18/428 | 96th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 73.0% | #24/428 | 95th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 62.9% | #14/428 | 97th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 53.5% | #16/428 | 96th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 52.6% | #19/428 | 96th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Rush share | 30.8% | #15/428 | 97th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.21 | #90/140 | 36th pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 54 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 2 | #163/258 | 37th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 7 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home3g | 133 | 1.3 | 6.8 | 0.0 |
| Road4g | 178 | 0.2 | 5.7 | 1.0 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Losses7g | 158 | 0.7 | 6.1 | 0.6 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-75g | 151 | 0.8 | 5.7 | 0.6 |
| Weeks 8+2g | 177 | 0.5 | 7.2 | 0.5 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
33Below cohort
Concern: yards / att (16th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Pass Profile · Completion depth (PBP)
Where the throws are landing
Short
0–9 yds57%of completions
38 comp5.5 yds avg1 TD
Middle
10–19 yds31%of completions
21 comp14.0 yds avg2 TD
Deep
20+ yds12%of completions
8 comp28.1 yds avg1 TD
Overall 54.9% completion on 122 attempts · 8 deep completions averaging 28.1 yds.
Advanced Savant · QB · 2024
Percentile Card
Concerns: EPA / dropback.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_passing0.13Below (<p25) (n=94)
wepa_rushing0.21Low (p25–p50) (n=72)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Hunter WatsonSam HoustonRyan BrownePurdue· 73% simNick VattiatoMiddle Tennessee· 70% simAvery JohnsonKansas State· 68% sim
Interceptions
Rush yards
Rush TDs
Fumbles lost
Pass yards
Completion %
Pass TDs
Yards / att
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Pocket Passer
Balanced passer who operates within the system. Profile sits near league average across dimensions.
QB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Brendon Lewis’s 2021 season.
Brendon Lewis
74%match
#2
Jeff Sims
74%
#3
Haynes King
72%
#4
Grant Jordan
72%
#5
Taisun Phommachanh
71%
Matches Brendon on
Total pass EPA (college ability)
Yards / attempt
Rush yards / carry
Differs from Brendon on
INT rate (higher)
Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Brayden Schager’s path through Hawai'i.
Brayden Schager
94%match
#2
Grayson James
All-ACC
89%
#3
Peyton Ramsey
All-Big Ten
87%
#4
Ethan Hampton
85%
#5
Lucas Johnson
84%
Matches Brayden on
Height
Completion %
Yards per attempt
As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Cam Fancher's sophomore season at Marshall (2022).
Cam Fancher
69%match
#2
Desmond Trotter
66%
#3
Tyler Vitt
64%
#4
Josh Holst
64%
#5
Matt McDonald
64%
Matches Cam on
INT rate
Height
Differs from Cam on
Completion % (higher)
Weight (higher)
TD rate (lower)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Phil Longo
Pass share
51.3%
388 pass / 368 run
Plays / game
63.0
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
11.1%
324 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2025
1 coach2025
Phil Longo
Sam Houston
Played his entire career under Phil Longo.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownCelina, TX
Height6'3"
Weight210 lb
Class4
PositionQB
Jersey10
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamSam Houston
ConferenceConference USA
Joined2025
Career arc2 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Sam Houston | QB4 | #1070 | #927 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Conference USA |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Sam Houston | Conference USA | QB | 4 | No. 10 | 6-3 | 210 lb | Celina, TX |
| 2024 | Sam Houston | Conference USA | QB | 4 | No. 10 | 6-3 | 210 lb | Celina, TX |