Nathan Elliott

QB · North Carolina 2018 · #11

Last confirmed: North Carolina, 2018. No 2026 box-score games on record.

6′1″ · 215 lb · Celina, TX

Nathan Elliott: QB · North Carolina · #11.

Players he’s like

Closest statistical matches, adjusted for opponent strength.

Nick MullensSouthern Miss · 2014 · 83% season match
Michael BrewerVirginia Tech · 2014 · 80% season match
Sam B. RichardsonIowa State · 2015 · 79% season match
Zion TurnerMarshall · 2026 · 74% season match
Kaleb ElebyWestern Michigan · 2018 · 66% season match

Nathan Elliott

QB · North Carolina · Jr · #11

Operates within the system without forcing anything. He has spent three seasons in the North Carolina quarterback room. A game that shows it: 321 passing yards and 3 rushing yards against Syracuse — Week 8, 2018.

How he plays

Play style

Balanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile.

Checkdown vs gunslinger · 3rd-and-long

Where the completions actually land

50.0%Completion %

20.9%Conversion/dropback

55.0%Land short of sticks

3INTs

50.0% completion on 3rd-and-8+, but only 20.9% conversion-per-dropback — 55.0% of completions land short of the sticks.

Where completions land is fact — whether incompletions were aimed deep is intent, not recorded here, so this card counts completions only. checkdown by design

Short-yardage / goal-line · enumeration

Who gets the tough yard

1/18Inside-5 share

1 of the team's 18 inside-the-5 carries (5.6%).

News and fans

No outlet on our list has written about him by name this season.

North Carolina in the news

Fran Brown names UNC QB1Syracuse.com Oct 22
Belichick admits UNC coaching shortcomingsYahoo Sports Oct 18

Where to follow him

Career stats

Swipe the table sideways for more columns.

Season	Team
2018	North Carolina	200	324	61.7%	2,178	6.7	11	9	123.8	57
2017	North Carolina	75	146	51.4%	926	6.3	9	5	118.1	47
2016	North Carolina	8	9	88.9%	55	6.1	0	0	140.2	--
Career		283	479	59.1%	3,159	6.6	20	14	122.4	54

Season	Team
2018	North Carolina	39	35	0.9
2017	North Carolina	47	134	2.9
2016	North Carolina	1	2	2.0
Career		87	171	2.0

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2018 season · 10 games

Box score · CFBD

Swipe the table sideways for more columns.

Wk	Opp	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA	QBR	Note
Wk 1	L 17-24@ California	15/35	144	1	4	4.1	—	4 INTs — rough day
Wk 2	L 19-41@ East Carolina	22/38	219	0	0	5.8	—
Wk 4	W 38-35vs Pittsburgh	22/31	313	2	0	10.1	—	Clean 2-TD game
Wk 5	L 10-47@ No. 16 Miami	16/25	104	0	0	4.2	—
Wk 7	L 19-22vs Virginia Tech	10/14	149	1	0	10.6	—
Wk 8	L 37-40@ Syracuse	34/52	321	2	0	6.2	—	Season-high 321 yds
Wk 9	L 21-31@ Virginia	22/38	271	2	0	7.1	—	Clean 2-TD game
Wk 10	L 28-38vs Georgia Tech	14/26	128	0	3	4.9	—	3 INTs — rough day
Wk 11	L 35-42@ Duke	27/41	221	1	0	5.4	—
Wk 12	W 49-26vs Western Carolina	18/24	308	2	2	12.8	—
Total		200/324	2178	11	9	6.7	—

Signature game

Week 8 · 2018

L 37-40

at Syracuse

321 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT

With D. Newsome — 7 rec · 90 yds · 1 TD · H. Lent — 37.7 yards per punt · 6 punts · 1 inside the 20

Signature plays

The plays that mattered most

Week 1 · California · 3rd and 7 · Q2 · EPA −7.48Nathan Elliott pass intercepted for a TD Cameron Goode return for 38 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)
Week 7 · Virginia Tech · 3rd and 15 · Q4 · EPA +4.82Nathan Elliott pass complete to Carl Tucker for 80 yds to the VTech 13 for a
Week 5 · Miami · 2nd and 8 · Q4 · EPA −4.06Nathan Elliott run for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 27 Nathan Elliott fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Bradley Jennings Jr.
Week 12 · Western Carolina · 3rd and 8 · Q1 · EPA −4.03Nathan Elliott pass intercepted Michael Murphy return for 70 yds to the NCaro 25
Week 12 · Western Carolina · 2nd and 2 · Q2 · EPA +3.92Nathan Elliott pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 54 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK)
Week 5 · Miami · 4th and 12 · Q3 · EPA +3.81Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 20 yds to the MiaFl 24 for a

4 more plays

Week 10 · Georgia Tech · 2nd and 12 · Q3 · EPA +3.73Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 35 yds to the GTech 39 for a
Week 9 · Virginia · 3rd and 8 · Q4 · EPA +3.65Nathan Elliott pass complete to Antonio Williams for 43 yds to the Virg 47 for a
Week 8 · Syracuse · 4th and 1 · Q2 · EPA −3.59Nathan Elliott run for a loss of 1 yard to the Syrac 22
Week 2 · East Carolina · 3rd and 8 · Q2 · EPA +3.55Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 28 yds to the ECaro 30 for a

Passing profile

Pass Profile · Completions by yards gained (PBP)

Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from

200/324 (61.7%) · 11 TD · 9 INT

324 of 324 attempts matched to play-by-play

Adjusted ANY/A

5.93120 of 207 QBs

Sack rate

1.5%3 of 207 QBs

Rarely sacked (3 of 207), but Adjusted ANY/A hasn't followed (120 of 207).

Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.

Short

0–9 yds

60%of completions

121 comp4.2 yds avg2 TD

Middle

10–19 yds

26%of completions

51 comp13.9 yds avg5 TD

Deep

20+ yds

14%of completions

28 comp33.9 yds avg3 TD

Overall 61.7% completion on 324 attempts · 28 deep completions averaging 33.9 yds.

Situational

Is he a different quarterback when it matters

Each situation vs his own 2018 baseline

No situation moves him more than 12 percentile points from his baseline.

BaselineThis situation

Down 1

-12 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 1/121 (0.8%) · league sack rate 4.9%

Down 2

+5 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 0/92 (0.0%) · league sack rate 5.4%

Down 3+

+10 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 4/92 (4.3%) · league sack rate 8.7%

Deltas are vs. this player’s own season baseline, never a league average. League sack rate by down is shown as context because sack attribution isn’t incompletion-denominated.

Teams and coaches

3 seasons under Larry Fedora, all balanced offenses — 13-23 over that span.

2016North Carolina8-5HC: Larry Fedora · Balanced

2017North Carolina3-9HC: Larry Fedora · Balanced

2018North Carolina2-9HC: Larry Fedora · Balanced

Our ratings

Show the ratings

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

13 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: sack rate (100th percentile). Concern: explosive rate (28th percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

Sack rate#1 / 179 · 100th pct

1.5%

Success rate#85 / 179 · 53rd pct

40.9%

EPA / dropback#105 / 179 · 42nd pct

0.18

Interception rate#109 / 179 · 39th pct

2.8%

Explosive rate#128 / 179 · 28th pct

8.6%

Box-score rates (8)

Completion %#63 / 169 · 63rd pct

61.7%

Pass yards#74 / 169 · 57th pct

2178

Pass TDs#97 / 169 · 41st pct

Rush yards#120 / 169 · 29th pct

Interceptions#112 / 169 · 29th pct

Yards / att#126 / 169 · 25th pct

6.7

Rush TDs#138 / 169 · 9th pct

Fumbles lost#141 / 159 · 8th pct

Season trend

Last seasonThis season

EPA / dropback

53rd → 42nd percentile

Success rate

44th → 53rd percentile

Explosive rate

13th → 28th percentile

Sack rate

41st → 100th percentile

Interception rate

29th → 39th percentile

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Zeitgeist Passer Rating

2018 · our own passing-efficiency number, shown next to the 1979 formula it does not replace.

High confidence: 305 dropbacks

57Zeitgeist Passer Rating52nd of 140 FBS QBs

NCAA passer rating 123.8 99th of 140 FBS QBs

ZPR ranks him 47 places higher than passer rating does: passer rating cannot see sacks, and he takes one on only 1.6% of dropbacks.

Positive-play rate weight 24%

44.6%47th pct of FBS QBs

share of dropbacks that gained expected points · +1.0% schedule adj.

Yards per attempt weight 56%

6.9238th pct of FBS QBs

sacks excluded · +0.2 schedule adj.

Sack rate weight 21% (penalty)

1.3%99th pct of FBS QBs

the input passer rating cannot see · -0.4% schedule adj.

Opponent-adjusted; garbage time excluded (23 of 328 dropbacks dropped). 50 = FBS average; the number is pulled toward 50 when the sample is thin. How ZPR is built.

Splits

Home and road splits, scheme and staff

Splits · Per-game

2018 season · 10 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Home4g	224	1.2	9.6	1.2
Road6g	213	1.0	5.5	0.7

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Weeks 1-75g	186	0.8	7.0	0.8
Weeks 8+5g	250	1.4	7.3	1.0

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2018 season

Head Coach

Larry Fedora

Pass share

51.1%

414 pass / 396 run

Plays / game

73.6

11 games

Scheme: Balanced.

Awards

Player standing · 2018

Starter

324 pass attempts and 39 carries in 10 games, about as many passes and runs a game as a typical FBS quarterback who plays every week.

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex