6-2, on track for 9-3 in the regular season.
Now
Career arc
Bowls and playoffs: 2-0
2023Las Vegas BowlW 14-7
2025GameAbove Sports BowlW 34-7
This week Wed Nov 4
- Last gameL 26-34 at Oregon Sat Oct 31
- This season6-2
- On track for9-3 regular season
- Nextvs. Iowa Sat Nov 7
- Stature49th of 138 FBS programs
What the result changed
- AP poll #20 → unranked out of the poll
- Playoff odds 14% → 6% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after
Saturday: vs. Iowa
Sat Nov 7, 7:30 pm ET 
· No. 21 Iowa is 6-2 · Braun vs. Kirk Ferentz: 0-2 · Northwestern’s chance to win: 61% (the site’s model)
Several stories this week →
The headlines, Nov 1–4
Inside NUIowa game week: David Braun presser notesTue Nov 3
Offense: 7th of 138 per play. Defense: 36th.
4 games left
- Sat Nov 7vs. Iowa (6-2)61%
- Sat Nov 14at Ohio State (6-2)32%
- Sat Nov 21at Minnesota (5-3)74%
- Sat Nov 28vs. Illinois (5-3)89%
Percent: Northwestern’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.
How the season got here
Where Northwestern stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).
- Oct 26–Nov 1L 26-34 at Oregon6 headlines · 62nd of 138Northwestern Coach David Braun Names Frustrations With Oregon Loss
Sports Illustrated - Oct 19–25W 42-14 vs. Rutgers5 headlines · 61st of 138Previewing No. 24 Northwestern before matchup with Rutgers football, what David Braun has in store
The Daily Targum - Oct 12–18W 24-21 at Michigan State4 headlines · 55th of 138
- Oct 5–11W 45-14 vs. Ball State1 headline · 83rd of 138
- Sep 28–Oct 4W 34-13 vs. Penn State6 headlines · 59th of 138David Braun praises Northwestern crowd at new stadium, makes callback to James Franklin jab
On3 - Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 23-29 at Indiana8 headlines · 44th of 138"Poise In The Noise" David Braun Previews Northwestern's Road Opener vs. #5 Indiana
FOX 32 Chicago
Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.
Watch the biggest plays from Northwestern’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.
Report card
Defense carries it: 75th percentile defense, below the median offense at 40th.
Northwestern, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.
Offense
Defense
Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.
Poach watch
This winter
Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.
What drives his number
The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.
- ▲ HigherHis 4th season at Northwestern
- ▼ Lower11-14 over his previous two seasons here
- ▲ HigherHis age is not on file · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do
Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.
- The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
- Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
- It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
- A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.
Fans
Fan chatter
- Oct 31L 26-34 at Oregon
i really like Braun's hat the N looks nice and embroidered
Northwestern fan - Oct 17W 24-21 at Michigan State
First true fumble by braun
Northwestern fan - Sep 25L 23-29 at Indiana
Braun earns his extension if we come out and score first possession of next half
Northwestern fan
Earlier weeks
- Sep 19W 41-7 vs. Colorado
Braun not trusting the punter on 4th down paying dividends for NU
Northwestern fan
Several stories about him this week
Sat Nov 7: Iowa
70th of 104 FBS head coaches · from a few outlets and r/CFB
Northwestern Coach David Braun Names Frustrations With Oregon Loss
Sports Illustrated +1 Oct 31 · a few outlets
All 2 articles
Dozens of stories about him this season
from dozens of outlets and r/CFB
Northwestern University and Football Coach David Braun Agree to Extend Contract Through 2031
10TV +13 Sep 17 · many outlets
All 14 articles
What they’re talking about
The headlines for each topic are on the News tab.
Could another school hire him? What has he said?
Stories are headlines grouped by what they are about, counted through Nov 4.
Stats
Big games
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
1-2 against his rivals. Just 1-2 against Bret Bielema.
ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.
Signature games
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
How he plays
Run/pass mix, by field position
Called about what the situation called for under every play-caller.
2,369 run and pass snaps at Northwestern, 2023–2025, his own games, one row per offensive coordinator. Each cell is how much more often he passed than the rest of FBS did in the same situation (field zone, down, distance, score, quarter, same season), in percentage points.
Pass rate, stint by stint
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 449 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2004–2025.
Building the roster
Five numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.
His recruiting, really
His 3 ranked Northwestern classes of his own have averaged #66 nationally — best #52, worst #80.
His class — he had the full signing cycleInherited — signed before he arrived
Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his; inherited and mid-transition classes still show here, faded, but stay out of the average.
Roster ownership
Roster ownership
of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 123 of 144 players. The other 21 are holdovers from before he was hired.
Of his own players on this roster, 20% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).
20% of his 147 new players since 2023 came through the portal (FBS programs, same seasons: 26%) — the 9th-lowest share of the 68 Power 4 programs. His share was 7% in 2023 and 30% in 2026.
Graded on the players who arrived and the players who left together, his portal seasons came out better than most FBS programs’ in 2 and worse than most in 1 of the 4 seasons graded. our read
Each player counts once, in the season he arrived. 2021, the first season of portal tracking here, is left off because its arrival records look incomplete (about 31 new players per FBS team, against 52 in 2022). Portal grade: the site’s position-value-weighted scoring (the same engine as the Portal Heat feed and the “Who won the portal” grade): the value of the players who came in minus the value of the ones who left, ranked against every FBS program’s grade that same season. A season with fewer than 4 transfers in and out is not graded.
“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.
Size up front
Size up front
Offensive linemen on his Northwestern rosters have averaged within a few pounds of the FBS average (2023–2026). In the three seasons before he arrived, Northwestern’s line averaged within a few pounds of the FBS average.
Average listed weight of every offensive lineman on each season’s roster, holdovers included, against every FBS roster that season (2010 on; a program needs 3+ seasons under him to appear). Weights are the ones programs publish, and programs list differently. This describes size only — not scheme, and not quality.
Where he recruits
is his biggest recruiting state: 18 of 81 signees (22%) across his 2023–2026 tenure, drawn from 23 states in all. Next: OH (13).
32% of his signees come from IL and its 5 border states (MO 5, IN 1, KY 1, WI 1).
Off this map: 7 signees to the west (CA 4, AZ 3).
- median hometown distance
- 311 mi
- within 100 mi
- 28%
- within 500 mi
- 64%
- beyond 1,000 mi
- 12%
The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.
The NFL pipeline
The NFL pipeline
players drafted into the NFL off his teams here. He brought in 1 of them himself; 1 arrived under Pat Fitzgerald.
| Year | Pick | Player | Pos | NFL team | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R3.33 | Caleb Tiernan | Offensive Tackle |  Minnesota Vikings | recruited under Pat Fitzgerald |
| 2026 | R7.37 | Evan Beerntsen | Offensive Guard |  Baltimore Ravens |
A pick counts toward his tenure when the player’s final college season was one he coached, a checkable rule rather than a claim about who developed the player. A blank note means the player is on a verified roster and arrived on his watch. “Estimated” means no roster record, so the final season is assumed to be the year before the draft.
News
Stories about him
Headlines, grouped by what they are about. Each is the outlet’s own.
This season
Press conference and quotes
Roundtable +1Northwestern Has "Best Stadium in Football," Coach David Braun SaysAug 22- Roundtable +1David Braun Provides Update on Northwestern’s Offensive LineAug 25
All 2 articles
- Inside NU +1David Braun Game Week Presser: ColoradoSep 15
All 3 articles
Northwestern WildcatsDavid Braun Game Week Presser: ColoradoInside NUDavid Braun’s Colorado game week press conference notesInside NUDavid Braun’s Colorado game week press conference notes 
Heavy +1Northwestern’s David Braun Sounds Alarm on Sports Betting Industry With Predatory ClaimsOct 27- Inside NU +1Oregon game week: David Braun presser notesOct 27
All 3 articles
Contract and pay
- 10TV +13Northwestern University and Football Coach David Braun Agree to Extend Contract Through 2031Sep 17
All 14 articles
Northwestern WildcatsNorthwestern University and Football Coach David Braun Agree to Extend Contract Through 2031Chicago Sun-TimesNorthwestern football coach David Braun gets contract extension through 2031 season - chicago.suntimes.comChicago TribuneNorthwestern extends football coach David Braun’s contract through 2031Capitol City NowNorthwestern extends football coach David Braun’s contract through the 2031 seasonToronto StarNorthwestern extends football coach David Braun’s contract through the 2031 seasonOskaloosa HeraldNorthwestern extends football coach David Braun's contract through the 2031 seasonThe Daily GazetteNorthwestern extends football coach David Braun's contract through the 2031 seasonHerald BulletinNorthwestern extends football coach David Braun's contract through the 2031 seasonYahoo SportsNorthwestern extends football coach David Braun's contract through the 2031 season10TVNorthwestern extends football coach David Braun's contract through the 2031 season - 10tv.comWTVBNorthwestern extends coach David Braun through 2031ReutersNorthwestern extends coach David Braun through 2031 - College Sports Wire +2Northwestern inks David Braun to a new contract and extensionSep 17
All 4 articles
FootballScoopNorthwestern inks David Braun to a new contract and extensionFootballScoopNorthwestern inks David Braun to a new contract and extension - FootballScoop.comYahoo SportsDavid Braun Signs Contract Extension With Northwestern Through 2031College Sports WireNorthwestern signs David Braun to contract extension - FOX 32 Chicago +1Northwestern football extends head coach David Braun's contract through the next decadeSep 17
Yahoo SportsNorthwestern football news: David Braun gets contract extension just in time for grand openingSep 17
The Daily NorthwesternFootball: Northwestern announces extension for coach David BraunSep 17
Game preview
- Sports Illustrated +1Indiana Football Previewed by Northwestern HC David Braun Ahead of Week 4Sep 21
All 2 articles
- Yahoo SportsNorthwestern football news: Braun scores big win vs. ColoradoSep 20
- Yahoo SportsDavid Braun Hyped Up by Deion Sanders Ahead of Indiana GameSep 23
- Chicago TribuneDavid Braun makes a ‘horrible decision’ vs. Michigan State and Pat Fitzgerald — but Northwestern wins anywayOct 17
- Yahoo SportsDavid Braun Sends Message to Northwestern Fans Ahead of RutgersOct 20
Profile and feature
- Roundtable +1Northwestern's David Braun Proclaims Bold New Era of Parity in College FootballOct 22
- The Daily NorthwesternFootball: Entering new era for Northwestern, Braun asks ‘Why not us?’Aug 10
- Yahoo SportsNorthwestern’s New Era Gets a Major Endorsement From David BraunSep 28
- Northwestern WildcatsNew Ryan Field, David Braun Usher in Transformative Era of Northwestern FootballSep 29
Loss
- Sports Illustrated +1Northwestern Coach David Braun Names Frustrations With Oregon LossOct 31
All 2 articles
- Sports IllustratedNorthwestern Coach David Braun Drops Honest Thoughts on Buffaloes' OffenseSep 14
- Yahoo SportsColorado football news: David Braun drops the mic after Buffaloes disrespectSep 22
In his own words
Every quote, back to September 2026
In his own words
I am so honored to have the opportunity to lead a storied football program at an institution that demands and expects excellence, instills character, and provides a transformative experience for its student-athletes on and off the field
We were out of sync a little bit
Career
Coaching career
The arc of his career is on Now.
Steady no large move in either direction on our stature ladder
6th-best Northwestern tenure of 13 by the numbers.
Followed Pat Fitzgerald (2006–2022).
| Season | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | |||||
| Record | 8-5 | 4-8 | 7-6 | 6-2 | |
| Postseason | W bowl | — | W bowl | — | |
| Coordinators | |||||
| OC | Mike Bajakian | Zach Lujan | Zach Lujan | Chip Kelly | |
| DC | — | Tim McGarigle | Tim McGarigle | Tim McGarigle | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | |||||
| Offense | 21 | 5 | 38 | 97 | |
| Defense | 82 | 53 | 42 | 64 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script | |||||
| 1st-down pass% | 44.5 | 47.2 | 45.1 | 51.6 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 38.8 | 45.2 | 35.8 | 37.9 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 18.9 | 22.9 | 36.6 | 26.1 | |
Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.
Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.
Coach of the Year: Big Ten Dave McClain Coach of the Year/Big Ten Hayes–Schembechler Coach of the Year (2023)
Was he good?
The data leans negative, where the data can separate from zero: every conclusive reading points the same way.
+4.5 pts at Northwestern · #405 of 1290 · middle halfModel fit as of 2026-09-04.