Kenny Dillingham

Head coach · Arizona State
4th season · since 2023

At school26-21since 2023 · 4-4 this seasonHot seatCool4% · 63rd of 132 jobsLast gameL 20-27at BYU · Oct 31Nextvs ColoradoSat Nov 7 · 7:30 pm ET · ESPN2
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

4-4, on track for 6-6 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianArizona StateArizonaArizonaPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelArizona State when he took over: 34.6 (National Program II), its final 2022 readingtook overArizona State, 2023: 3-9, National Program IIArizona State, 2023: 3-9, National Program II20233-9Arizona State, 2024: 11-3, National Program II202411-3Arizona State, 2025: 8-5, National Program I20258-5Arizona State, 2026: 4-4, National Program IArizona State, 2026: 4-4, National Program I20264-4+5.2best: 2025gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 0-2

2024 QFPeach BowlL 31-392025Sun BowlL 39-42

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 20-27 at BYU Sat Oct 31
  • This season4-4
  • On track for6-6 regular season
  • Nextvs. Colorado Sat Nov 7
  • Stature38th of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • Playoff odds 0.2% → <0.1% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Saturday: vs. Colorado

Sat Nov 7, 7:30 pm ET ESPN2 · Colorado is 3-5 · Dillingham vs. Deion Sanders: 1-1 · Arizona State’s chance to win: 70% (the site’s model)

His week

Let's Go Play Our Best Game”

Kenny Dillingham Talks About Colorado, New Energy for Sun Devils in Monday Presser

Sports Illustrated headline · Mon Nov 2
I'm trying to find a way to beat Colorado”

Kenny Dillingham on Florida State opening

On3 headline · Mon Nov 2
Sun Devil Athletics · 1,022 views by Wednesday

Many stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from several outlets

On the podcasts

Fans are frustrated with Arizona State

We may have lost but Fette Wap in his first start as a true freshman threw for more TDs and score more points against BYU than “Heisman Contender” Noah Fajita Also Sam Leavitt is a bitch

the kick return Arizona State just did needs to be studied in a lab

You think BYU of all schools would pride themselves on not booing an injured player lol

Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more negative than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases

Offense: 108th of 138 per play. Defense: 71st.

Offense, per play108thPassing offense112thDefense, per play71stDefense, opponents' starting field position133rdWorstBest
Offense, per play108th of 138Passing offense112th of 138Defense, per play71st of 138Defense, opponents' starting field position133rd of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Arizona State. The other two rows are where Arizona State stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7vs. Colorado (3-5)ESPN270%
  2. Sat Nov 14at UCF (4-4)53%
  3. Sat Nov 21vs. Oklahoma State (5-3)52%
  4. Sat Nov 28at Arizona (6-2)14%

Percent: Arizona State’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Arizona State stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

31st37th43rdPreseason36thMorgan State W 70-7Morgan State W 70-7W 70-7Morgan State36thTexas A&M L 20-48Texas A&M L 20-48L 20-48Texas A&M36thKansas W 24-17Kansas W 24-17W 24-17Kansas36thBaylor L 19-55Baylor L 19-55L 19-55Baylor36thHawai'i W 30-12Hawai'i W 30-12W 30-12Hawai'i38thTexas Tech L 25-53Texas Tech L 25-53L 25-53Texas Tech37thKansas State W 28-17Kansas State W 28-17W 28-17Kansas State38thBYU L 20-27BYU L 20-27L 20-27BYU38thBye38th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1L 20-27 at BYU17 headlines · 32nd of 138Everything Kenny Dillingham Said After Arizona State's 27-20 Loss vs. No. 8 BYU Sports Illustrated
  2. Oct 19–25W 28-17 vs. Kansas State13 headlines · 35th of 138Everything Kenny Dillingham Said After Arizona State's 28-17 Victory Over Kansas State Sports Illustrated
  3. Oct 12–18L 25-53 at Texas Tech13 headlines · 27th of 138Arizona State's Kenny Dillingham jokes about 'getting hit by tortillas' Yahoo Sports
  4. Oct 5–11W 30-12 vs. Hawai'i15 headlines · 30th of 138Kenny Dillingham responds to cleared-out home stadium during ASU's 'most embarrassing game' Arizona Sports
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 19-55 vs. Baylor6 headlines · 59th of 138Exclusive | Kenny Dillingham on ASU football finding its rhythm ahead of Big 12 home opener vs. Baylor Arizona Sports
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltNo game10 headlines · 39th of 138Kenny Dillingham Talks About Offensive Struggles, London Recaps and Injury Updates in BYE Week Press Conference Yahoo Sports

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Arizona State’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Above the median on both sides of the ball — 52nd percentile offense, 59th percentile defense.

Arizona State, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

B-
of which —52nd
efficiency — 52nd percentile success rate, 2023–25
B-57th
Standard-downs success
C+47th
Passing-downs success
B+74th
Trench push (line yards)
B-52nd
Red-zone scoring rate
C+49th
Power-success (short yardage)
C+45th
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

B-
of which —59th
59th percentile SP+ defense, 2023–25
B+73rd
Front-7 havoc
A88th
Secondary havoc
C+46th
Stuff rate (run defense)
C-38th
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.

Hot seat

See every job →

This season

4%chance he’s out by the end of this seasonCool63rd-hottest of 132 FBS jobs
0%50%+

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

All three of his finished seasons here ended Cool. Now right where 2025 was at this point.

How his seat has moved, and why

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool20232024202520262023, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 97th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2023, week 4 (4 games in): 2%, 94th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 5 (5 games in): 2%, 85th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 6 (6 games in): 2%, 81st-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 7 (6 games in): 2%, 80th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 8 (7 games in): 2%, 80th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 9 (8 games in): 2%, 82nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 10 (9 games in): 2%, 82nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 11 (10 games in): 2%, 86th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 12 (11 games in): 1%, 83rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 13 (12 games in): 2%, 75th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 14 (12 games in): 2%, 75th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 15 (12 games in): 2%, 76th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2024, week 3 (3 games in): 3%, 64th-hottest of 111 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (4 games in): 3%, 82nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (4 games in): 3%, 79th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (5 games in): 2%, 85th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (6 games in): 2%, 89th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): 2%, 89th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (7 games in): 2%, 87th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (8 games in): 1%, 96th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (9 games in): 1%, 98th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): <1%, 102nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): <1%, 108th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 114th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 114th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): <1%, 114th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 3 (3 games in): 6%, 51st-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 4%, 68th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (5 games in): 4%, 68th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 4%, 67th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 4%, 67th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 3%, 71st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 4%, 64th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (9 games in): 3%, 72nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): 3%, 72nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 2%, 76th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 1%, 79th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 2%, 68th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 2%, 68th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 2%, 68th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 3%, 72nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (3 games in): 4%, 65th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (4 games in): 7%, 54th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (5 games in): 7%, 57th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): 8%, 50th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 5%, 64th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 4%, 67th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 4%, 63rd-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnow

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    Year 4 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

  • ▼ Cooler
    19-8 over his previous two seasons here
  • ▲ Hotter
    4-4, even on points

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 4-4 after 8 games
8% pushed out over results · of 504 coaches
Were in years 3-4, after 8 games
13% pushed out over results · of 754 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$24,683,333 USA Today estimate (Oct. 2025) — not a disclosed figure · 3.3× total pay · a large buyout, which lowers his chance of being let go

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

Poach watch

This winter

4%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled51st-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▲ Higher
    His 4th season at Arizona State
  • ▲ Higher
    A Power Four program · 74th percentile of FBS in program stature last season
  • ▼ Lower
    Age 46 · coaching at his alma mater
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.