Kyle Flood

Head coach, Rutgers, 2012 to 2015

College career27-24

Program liftNo. 631tied · of 1,290 tenures since 1937

Now

Career arc

Bowls and playoffs: 1-2

2012Russell Athletic BowlL 10-13

2013Pinstripe BowlL 16-29

2014Quick Lane BowlW 40-21

Poach watch

Every coordinator →

Texas offensive coordinator, 2026

This winter

10%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job or a bigger coordinator job — including going with his head coach if he’s hired awayNoticed68th-highest of 329 FBS coordinators

0%50%+

Our poach model, on his team’s results so far, how his unit compares with the FBS average this season and last, his program’s standing and his role. Ranked against the 329 FBS coordinators with 3+ games this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS coordinator today.

▲ Higher
An offensive coordinator
▼ Lower
A Power Four program · 94th percentile of FBS in program stature last season
▲ Higher
His offense scores 2.3 points a game more than the FBS average · last season his offense scored 1.9 more
▲ Higher
His team is 6-2, outscoring opponents by 13.6 points a game · AP-ranked

How good is this number? It ranks a coordinator who moves up ahead of one who stays 71 to 73% of the time, and its average matches the share who actually move. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS coordinator from 2018 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it: from three games on, given one coordinator who moved up and one who didn’t, it ranked the one who moved ahead 71 to 73% of the time, and its average chance came within a tenth of a point of the share who actually moved.

Counting a coordinator who follows his hired-away head coach as moving up was decided after the model’s first results were seen.
Much of the signal comes through his head coach: coordinators often move because their boss is hired away. This site’s number for head coaches is now live, on each head coach’s page, but this number doesn’t use it.
Moves to NFL coordinator jobs are undercounted in the history it learned from; they were found mainly for coordinators with Wikipedia pages.
On its own it is weak at picking which coordinator lands a head-coaching job (about 60% on the same test). The number is about moving up by any route.
It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.

Report card

Offense carries it: 53rd percentile offense, bottom-quarter defense at 18th.

Rutgers, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

B-

of which —53rd

efficiency — 53rd percentile success rate, 2012–15

B-53rd

Standard-downs success

C+49th

Passing-downs success

C+45th

Trench push (line yards)

B-58th

Red-zone scoring rate

B-51st

Power-success (short yardage)

C43rd

Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

of which —18th

18th percentile SP+ defense, 2014–15 (SP+ starts 2014)

F0th

Front-7 havoc

C-39th

Secondary havoc

B+79th

Stuff rate (run defense)

C-38th

Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.

Stats

Big games

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

1-1 against his rivals.

Rivalry record

1-1

50.0% · 1 rival

One-score games

10-7

58.8% · margin ≤8

Against Blue Bloods or better

0-2

0.0%

Against the spread

17-19-1

−4.2 pts a game vs. the line

37 of 51 had a line

Rivalry ledger

Maryland1-150%ATS —

Performance by opponent class

Blue Blood

0-2 0.0%ATS —

Power Program

3-12 20.0%ATS 6-7 13 of 15

National Program

7-8 46.7%ATS 4-5 9 of 15

Regional Program

13-2 86.7%ATS 6-4-1 11 of 15

ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.

Signature games

0-8 vs. AP top 25 · 0-4 vs. the top 10

Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year

win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10

Signature wins

Maryland · 2014

41-38

RivalUpsetQuality opponent

North Carolina · 2014

40-21

UpsetQuality opponentBowl/CFP stakes

Arkansas · 2012

35-26

Quality opponent

Signature losses

Notre Dame · 2013

16-29

Bowl/CFP stakes

Maryland · 2015

41-46

Rival

Houston · 2013

14-49

Upset

Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.

How he plays

more run-heavy than 72% of FBS coaches →

Run/pass mix, by field position

Ran more than the situation called for under McDaniels.

2,716 run and pass snaps at Rutgers, 2012–2015, his own games, one row per offensive coordinator. Each cell is how much more often he passed than the rest of FBS did in the same situation (field zone, down, distance, score, quarter, same season), in percentage points.

backed upown territorymidfieldopp. territoryred zoneOC unrecorded2012–13−1+10+3+11Friedgen2014−30−6−1−1McDaniels2015−10−3−6−3−2All years2012–15−40−30+4

passed moreran morewithin noise (95% range includes 0)

Pass rate, stint by stint

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 449 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2004–2025.

Typical stint7.010.3 median14.8middle half of all stints

Rutgers7.5pt#320 of 449 · a typical amount

Building the roster

Four numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.

1Roster ownership
2Size up front
3Where he recruits
4The NFL pipeline

Roster ownership

97%His own players

of his 2015 roster arrived on his watch — 115 of 119 players. The other 4 are holdovers from before he was hired.

Arrived under him 115Inherited 4

This coach's entire tenure (2012-2015) predates 2021, when transfer-portal tracking begins in this database. Portal usage cannot be measured for this tenure at all -- this is not the same as '0% portal'.

“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.

Size up front

+1 lbAgainst the FBS average

Offensive linemen on his Rutgers rosters have averaged within a few pounds of the FBS average (2012–2015). In the two seasons before he arrived, Rutgers’s line averaged within a few pounds of the FBS average.

Rutgers2012–2015+1 lb

His seasonsSame program, the seasons before he arrivedMiddle half of FBS coaching runs since 2010

Average listed weight of every offensive lineman on each season’s roster, holdovers included, against every FBS roster that season (2010 on; a program needs 3+ seasons under him to appear). Weights are the ones programs publish, and programs list differently. This describes size only — not scheme, and not quality.

Where he recruits

NJTop state

is his biggest recruiting state: 30 of 69 signees (43%) across his 2012–2015 tenure, drawn from 12 states in all. Next: PA (12).

Where his signees came from, 2012–2015 (69 high-school, JUCO and prep signees)

70% of his signees come from NJ and its 3 border states (PA 12, NY 5, DE 1).

Off this map: 2 signees to the west (CA, MN).

By region

Northeast

South

Midwest

West

Roster distance from campus (High Point Solutions Stadium, NJ)

median hometown distance: 44 mi
within 100 mi: 69%
within 500 mi: 84%
beyond 1,000 mi: 5%

116 of 119 roster players with a known hometown (98% coverage)

The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.

The NFL pipeline

10Drafted

players drafted into the NFL off his teams here. Most were someone else’s recruits: 4 arrived under Greg Schiano; 1 he brought in himself. 5 more can’t be traced to who brought them in (no roster record).

His recruits 1Inherited 4Can’t verify 55 roster-verified · 5 estimated

Most recent picks first

Year	Pick	Player	Pos	NFL team	Note
2016	R3.23	Leonte Carroo	Wide Receiver	Miami Dolphins
2015	R3.21	Tyler Kroft	Tight End	Cincinnati Bengals	recruited under Greg Schiano
2015	R5.32	Michael Burton	Fullback	Detroit Lions	recruited under Greg Schiano
2013	R3.21	Logan Ryan	Cornerback	New England Patriots	Estimated
2013	R3.29	Duron Harmon	Safety	New England Patriots	recruited under Greg Schiano
2013	R4.20	Khaseem Greene	Outside Linebacker	Chicago Bears	Estimated
2013	R7.13	D.C. Jefferson	Tight End	Arizona Cardinals	Estimated
2013	R7.22	Jawan Jamison	Running Back	Washington Redskins	Estimated

Year	Pick	Player	Pos	NFL team	Note
2013	R7.29	Steve Beauharnais	Inside Linebacker	New England Patriots	recruited under Greg Schiano
2013	R7.46	Marcus Cooper	Cornerback	San Francisco 49ers	Estimated

A pick counts toward his tenure when the player’s final college season was one he coached, a checkable rule rather than a claim about who developed the player. A blank note means the player is on a verified roster and arrived on his watch. “Estimated” means no roster record, so the final season is assumed to be the year before the draft.

Career

Coaching career

See Rutgers’s full coaching history →

The arc of his career is on Now.

Steady no large move in either direction on our stature ladder

2012–2015

Rutgers Steady

National Program III → National Program II (left at National Program III)

Closest comparable run: Clay Helton’s Georgia Southern run (2022–now)

Kyle Flood moved Rutgers from National Program III to National Program II in 4 seasons.

−1.3 pts over 4 seasons · top 39% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

3rd-best Rutgers tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Greg Schiano (2001–2011) · succeeded by Chris Ash (2016–2019).

System Shift, on departure

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2012	2013	2014	2015
Record & result
Record	9-4	6-7	8-5	4-8
Postseason	L bowl	L bowl	W bowl	—
Coordinators
OC	—	—	Ralph Friedgen	Ben McDaniels
DC	—	—	Joe Rossi	Joe Rossi
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	1	22	63	47
Defense	97	9	11	11
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	36.6	43.8	36.2	34.2
Red-zone pass%	45.8	47.2	33.0	35.6
4th-down go%opp. territory	18.8	39.0	27.3	42.4

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

-6.6 pts

#140 of 208 · middle half

Defense vs. talent

-43.0 pts

#208 of 208 · bottom quarter

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Ralph Friedgen → Ben McDaniels · 2015

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 36.2% → 34.2% (-2.0 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 46% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Grows Running back from high school

100%

#196 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2012: Lost to Virginia Tech 10-13 Russell Athletic Bowl2013: Lost to Notre Dame 16-29 New Era Pinstripe Bowl2014: Beat North Carolina 40-21 Quick Lane Bowl

27-24

Was he good?

The data leans negative, where the data can separate from zero: every conclusive reading points the same way.

Raised the program

+0.8 pts at Rutgers · #631 of 1290 · middle half

Beat his talent