CFB Zeitgeist Score
2
Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by rec tds at the 7th percentile.
Ashton Nickelberry
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
13 REC YDS · 2 REC · 0 REC TD
2026 Outlook
Returning to UTEP for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Wide receiver · UTEP
Returning around him
- 100% of 2024 offensive production back (Strong continuity)
- Transfer portal: +1 net (21 in / 20 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
UTEP · Last season: 2-10 · Talent rank #101 · 2026 recruiting class #70
WR · UTEP · CONFERENCE USA
Ashton Nickelberry
- 4
- 5-10 | 181 lb
- Brandon, MS
Heisman Heat
#3637
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP WR AWARD
Biletnikoff
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 1 · 2-deepR03 · Backup
Backup. On the two-deep, pushing for snaps.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · receiving yards
2024–2025-77%
Sharp dropoff (-77%) — career inflection point.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
—
CFB
College
UTEP
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No recruiting profile is on file for this player. | ||
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Austin Peay -> UTEP | 3-star | 0.8000 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Ashton Nickelberry
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Ashton Nickelberry
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the receiving totals stand
Through 2g
13Rec yards
2Receptions
0Rec TDs
Per game
6.5Rec yards
1Receptions
0Rec TDs
Projected (13g)
84.5Rec yards
13Receptions
0Rec TDs
To hit 700-yard receiver (currently 13): needs 62.5/game over remaining 11.
To hit 1,000-yard receiver (currently 13): needs 89.7/game over remaining 11.
To hit 60-catch season (currently 2): needs 5.3/game over remaining 11.
To hit 80-catch season (currently 2): needs 7.1/game over remaining 11.
To hit 8 receiving TDs (currently 0): needs 0.7/game over remaining 11.
To hit 10 receiving TDs (currently 0): needs 0.9/game over remaining 11.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Ashton Nickelberry's story is about how role and output meet each other. For UTEP, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
WR season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Receiving weapon against FBS receiving peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Receiving
REC
2 20th
YDS
13 12th
YPR
6.5 11th
TD
0 45th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 2 games
| Wk | Opp | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 8 | W 35-17@ Sam Houston | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 | 11 | Season-high 13 yds |
| Wk 13 | L 31-34vs New Mexico State | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Total | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 | 11 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2024UTEP3-9HC: Scotty Walden · Run-leaning
2025UTEP2-10HC: Scotty Walden · Balanced
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
The player's share of a team's passing-game involvement. It is the fastest way to see whether the receiver is a true focal point or more of a complementary piece.
A blended workload view that accounts for catches, designed touches, and any return-game involvement that shapes the overall profile.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | Receptions | 2 | #886/1110 | 20th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 13 | #974/1107 | 12th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 0 | #615/1111 | 45th pct | Scoringvs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 6.5 | #983/1106 | 11th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Pass share | 3.6% | #988/1137 | 13th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 11 | #938/1105 | 15th pct | Metricvs FBS WR |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 4.3% | #703/1137 | 38th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 2.4% | #829/1137 | 27th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 2.3% | #807/1137 | 29th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | Role share | 2.0% | #950/1137 | 17th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS WR |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 1.4% | #988/1137 | 13th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 0.0% | #993/1137 | 13th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Rush share | 0.0% | #391/1137 | 66th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS WR |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 2 games
Home vs Road
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home1g | — | — | — | — |
| Road1g | 2.0 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins1g | 2.0 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 0.0 |
| Losses1g | — | — | — | — |
First half vs Second half
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 8+2g | 1.0 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 0.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the WR cohort
2Below cohort
Concern: receptions (0th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · WR · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Ashton NickelberryUTEPMichael Jackson IIIPurdue· 47% simJacquon GibsonMassachusetts· 41% simAaron TurnerRice· 39% sim
Rec TDs
Yards / catch
Long catch
Rec yards
Receptions
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Scotty Walden
Pass share
52.4%
410 pass / 372 run
Plays / game
65.2
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
8.2%
342 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2024–2025
1 coach2024
Scotty Walden
UTEP
2025
Scotty Walden
UTEP
Played his entire career under Scotty Walden.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownBrandon, MS
Height5'10"
Weight181 lb
Class4
PositionWR
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamUTEP
ConferenceConference USA
Joined2025
Career arc2 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | UTEP | WR4 | #3637 | #4400 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Conference USA |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.