cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Stacy Sneed /Houston

Stacy Sneed

RB · Houston · Sr · #21

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

130 RUSH YDS · 0 RUSH TD · 37 CARRIES

2026 RETURNINGReturning to Houston for 2026

2026 Outlook

Returning to Houston for 2026

2026 Depth chart

Projected starter

Running back · Houston

Returning around him

  • 105% of 2024 offensive production back (Strong continuity)
  • 1 Houston player drafted to NFL
  • Transfer portal: +2 net (18 in / 16 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

Houston · Last season: 10-3 (AP #25) · Talent rank #66 · 2026 recruiting class #52

RB · HOUSTON · BIG 12

Stacy Sneed

  • 4
  • #21
  • 5-11 | 185 lb
  • Arlington, TX

CFB Zeitgeist Score

9

Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by rec yards at the 39th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#425

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP RB AWARD

Doak Walker

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R05 · Part-time starter

Part-time starter. Splitting first-team reps.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Development Trajectory · rushing yards

2022–2025
5012022
2822023
3082024
1302025

-74%

Sharp dropoff (-74%) — career inflection point.

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★
#995 national
CFB
College
Houston
2022–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionRB
Class4
Jersey21
Measurements5-11 | 185 lb
HometownArlington, TX
Primary teamHouston

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 995 recruit
Composite rating 0.8574 HighSchool
Signed with -- 2020
Origin Mansfield Timberview Arlington, TX, USA
Class Profile Context
2020 3-star | 0.8574 No. 995 recruit | HighSchool

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 0 No portal entry on file
Latest destination -- --
Transfer stars -- CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility -- Transfer date TBD
Season Move Context
No transfer portal moves on file for this player.

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#425Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#612Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to —

Composite

0.8574

#995 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Stacy Sneed

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Stacy Sneed

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the rushing totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 10g
130Rush yards
37Carries
0Rush TDs
Per game
13Rush yards
4Carries
0Rush TDs
Projected (13g)
169Rush yards
48Carries
0Rush TDs

To hit 750-yard season (currently 130): needs 206.7/game over remaining 3.

To hit 1,000-yard season (currently 130): needs 290/game over remaining 3.

To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 130): needs 456.7/game over remaining 3.

To hit 10 rushing TDs (currently 0): needs 3.3/game over remaining 3.

To hit 15 rushing TDs (currently 0): needs 5/game over remaining 3.

To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 0): needs 6.7/game over remaining 3.

What made this player interesting

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Stacy Sneed's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Houston, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.

Current place #425 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load 7.9% Overall usage share
Profile quirk Development arc The card should explain why this profile stands out

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

RB season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Scrimmage yards 198 130 rush | 68 rec | #398/735 (46th pct)
Rush TD 0 37 carries | #447/739 (40th pct)
Yards/carry 3.5 Per-rush efficiency | #577/735 (22nd pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Backfield contributor against FBS RB peers.

Balanced profile

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Rushing

CAR
37 52nd
YDS
130 46th
YPC
3.5 22nd
TD
0 40th

Receiving

REC
8 55th
YDS
68 58th
YPR
8.5 67th
TD
0 70th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 10 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppCARYDSAVGTDLONGNote
Wk 1W 27-0vs Stephen F. Austin7304.3016
Wk 2W 35-9@ Rice9364.0013Season-high 36 yds
Wk 3W 36-20vs Colorado9353.9014
Wk 5W 27-24@ Oregon State2126.0014
Wk 6L 11-35vs Texas Tech273.506
Wk 7W 39-17@ Oklahoma State4102.504
Wk 11W 30-27@ UCF1-4-4.000
Wk 13L 14-17vs TCU111.001
Wk 14W 31-24@ Baylor
BowlW 38-35vs LSU231.505
Total371302.5016
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2022Houston8-5HC: Dana Holgorsen · Pass-leaning
2023Houston4-8HC: Dana Holgorsen · Balanced
2024Houston4-8HC: Dana Holgorsen · Run-heavy, slow tempo
2025Houston10-3HC: Willie Fritz · Run-leaning
SeasonTeam
2025Houston371303.50--
2024Houston603085.11--
2023Houston482825.91--
2022Houston765016.65--
Career4 loaded seasons2211,2215.57--
SeasonTeam
2025Houston8688.50--
2024Houston16996.21--
2023Houston13957.31--
2022Houston221336.00--
Career4 loaded seasons593956.72--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Rushing WEPA

Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.

Role share

How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Receiving work 8 68 rec yds | #248/552 (55th pct)
Usage 7.9% 10.8% rush share | #388/738 (48th pct)
Rushing WEPA +0.24 Opponent-adjusted rush value | #26/362 (93rd pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Rushing Rushing yards 130 #398/735 46th pct Volumevs FBS RB
Rushing Rush TD 0 #447/739 40th pct Scoringvs FBS RB
Rushing Yards / carry 3.5 #577/735 22nd pct Efficiencyvs FBS RB
Receiving Receptions 8 #248/552 55th pct Volumevs FBS RB
Receiving Receiving yards 68 #232/548 58th pct Volumevs FBS RB
Value Rushing WEPA +0.24 #26/362 93rd pct Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 61 weighted playsvs FBS RB
Usage Role share 7.9% #388/738 48th pct Share of team offensevs FBS RB
Rushing Carries 37 #355/739 52nd pct Volumevs FBS RB
Rushing Rushing LONG 16 #448/733 39th pct Metricvs FBS RB
Receiving Receiving LONG 24 #174/540 68th pct Metricvs FBS RB
Receiving Yards / catch 8.5 #183/548 67th pct Efficiencyvs FBS RB
Receiving Receiving TD 0 #169/552 70th pct Scoringvs FBS RB
Usage Rush share 10.8% #459/738 38th pct Ground-game usagevs FBS RB
Usage 1st-down usage 9.5% #369/738 50th pct Early-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage 2nd-down usage 8.5% #411/738 44th pct Middle-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage Standard-down usage 8.3% #415/738 44th pct Base-situation sharevs FBS RB
Usage Passing-down usage 7.0% #345/738 53rd pct Known-passing sharevs FBS RB
Usage 3rd-down usage 5.3% #427/738 42nd pct Money-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage Pass share 4.2% #215/738 71st pct Air-game usagevs FBS RB

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 10 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

YDS/gYPCTD/g
Home5g15.22.80.0
Road5g10.82.10.0

Win vs Loss

YDS/gYPCTD/g
Wins8g15.22.60.0
Losses2g4.02.20.0

First half vs Second half

YDS/gYPCTD/g
Weeks 1-77g19.03.70.0
Weeks 8+3g-1.0-1.50.0

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort

9Below cohort
7 metrics · season cumulative

Concern: carries (0th).

Rec yards#205 / 338 · 39th pct
68rece
Receptions#225 / 338 · 32nd pct
8rece
Long run#328 / 349 · 6th pct
16rush
Yards / carry#332 / 349 · 5th pct
3.5rush
Rush TDs#326 / 349 · 3rd pct
0rush
Rush yards#347 / 349 · 1st pct
130rush
Carries#350 / 349 · 0th pct
37rush

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · RB · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 7 metrics
Stacy SneedHoustonTae MeadowsTroy· 46% simChavon WrightNorthern Illinois· 44% simKamari MoultonIowa· 43% sim
Rec yards
39
Sneed
38
Meadows
10
Wright
53
Moulton
Receptions
32
Sneed
45
Meadows
32
Wright
63
Moulton
Long run
6
Sneed
53
Meadows
49
Wright
33
Moulton
Yards / carry
5
Sneed
29
Meadows
33
Wright
62
Moulton
Rush TDs
3
Sneed
72
Meadows
62
Wright
62
Moulton
Rush yards
1
Sneed
74
Meadows
84
Wright
84
Moulton
Carries
0
Sneed
84
Meadows
92
Wright
86
Moulton

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

DNA Match awaiting data — similarity scores compute once season stats clear the volume gate for this position cohort.

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Willie Fritz

Pass share

41.4%

377 pass / 534 run

Plays / game

70.1

13 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

6.5%

262 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Run-leaning.

Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025

2 coaches
2022
Dana Holgorsen
Houston
2023
Dana Holgorsen
Houston
2024
Dana Holgorsen
Houston
2025
Willie Fritz
Houston
era →

Coaching transition mid-career: Dana Holgorsen → Willie Fritz. Worth noting in scheme + development context.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownArlington, TX
Height5'11"
Weight185 lb
Class4
PositionRB
Jersey21

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Houston RB4 #425 #612 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | Big 12
2023 Houston RB4 #998 #1330 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | Big 12
2022 Houston RB4 #560 #630 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | American Athletic
2021 Houston RB4 #3090 #2862 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | American Athletic

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Houston Big 12 RB 4 No. 21 | 5-11 | 185 lb | Arlington, TX
2024 Houston Big 12 RB 4 No. 21 | 5-11 | 185 lb | Arlington, TX
2023 Houston Big 12 RB 4 No. 21 | 5-11 | 185 lb | Arlington, TX
2022 Houston American Athletic RB 4 No. 21 | 5-11 | 185 lb | Arlington, TX
2021 Houston American Athletic RB 4 No. 21 | 5-11 | 185 lb | Arlington, TX