Vernon Adams Jr.

QB · Oregon 2015 · #3

Last confirmed: Oregon, 2015. No 2026 box-score games on record.

5′11″ · Pasadena, CA

Vernon Adams Jr.: QB · Oregon · #3.

Players he’s like

Closest statistical matches, adjusted for opponent strength.

McKenzie MiltonUCF · 2017 · 64% season match
Blake SimsAlabama · 2014 · 57% season match
Baker MayfieldOklahoma · 2015 · 52% season match
Nick MarshallAuburn · 2014 · 38% season match
Kenny HillTexas A&M · 2014 · 38% season match

Vernon Adams Jr.

QB · Oregon · #3

Picks you apart underneath and protects the ball. One game to point at: 407 passing yards and 6 passing TD against USC — Week 12, 2015.

How he plays

Play style

High-percentage passer who protects the ball. Loses the matchup on improvisation.

Q4 transformation · one-season descriptive

Fourth-quarter fade

2Real games backing it up

0.564Q1-3 EPA/dropback

0.092Q4 EPA/dropback

2 times this season the team led entering the fourth quarter and lost — and it shows in the tape: 0.564 → 0.092 EPA/dropback into the fourth.

t=-2.02 (n=219/50), one season of descriptive data — never a predictive trait. Across ~200 QB-seasons screened at this threshold, expected false positives run near 5%.

Checkdown vs gunslinger · 3rd-and-long

Where the completions actually land

75.0%Completion %

44.1%Conversion/dropback

28.6%Land short of sticks

0INTs

75.0% completion on 3rd-and-8+, but only 44.1% conversion-per-dropback — 28.6% of completions land short of the sticks.

Where completions land is fact — whether incompletions were aimed deep is intent, not recorded here, so this card counts completions only. checkdown by design

Short-yardage / goal-line · enumeration

Who gets the tough yard

4/37Inside-5 share

4 of the team's 37 inside-the-5 carries (10.8%).

News and fans

No outlet on our list has written about him by name this season.

Oregon in the news

Oregon players charged with traffic offensesOct 19
Aaron Flowers out for seasonOct 15
CFP nearing deal to expand to 24 teamsOct 15
Lanning defends Alexander's hitOct 13

Where to follow him

Career stats

Swipe the table sideways for more columns.

Season	Team
2015	Oregon	168	259	64.9%	2,643	10.2	26	6	179.1	79
Career		168	259	64.9%	2,643	10.2	26	6	179.1	79

Season	Team
2015	Oregon	83	147	1.8	2
Career		83	147	1.8	2

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2015 season · 10 games

Box score · CFBD

Swipe the table sideways for more columns.

Wk	Opp	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA	QBR	Note
Wk 1	W 61-42vs Eastern Washington	19/25	246	2	0	9.8	69.2
Wk 2	L 28-31@ No. 5 Michigan State	22/39	309	1	2	7.9	32.5
Wk 4	L 20-62vs No. 18 Utah	2/7	26	1	0	3.7	8.8
Wk 7	W 26-20@ Washington	14/25	272	2	0	10.9	87.1	Clean 2-TD game
Wk 9	W 61-55@ Arizona State	23/40	315	4	1	7.9	77.5	4 TD passes
Wk 10	W 44-28vs California	17/29	300	4	2	10.3	92.5	4 TD passes
Wk 11	W 38-36@ No. 7 Stanford	10/12	205	2	0	17.1	74.0
Wk 12	W 48-28vs No. 22 USC	20/25	407	6	1	16.3	98.8	Season-high 407 yds
Wk 13	W 52-42vs Oregon State	28/38	366	3	0	9.6	73.9	3 TD passes
Bowl	L 41-47@ No. 11 TCU	13/19	197	1	0	10.4	91.5
Total		168/259	2643	26	6	10.2	—

Signature game

Week 12 · 2015

W 48-28

vs USC

407 yds · 6 TD · 1 INT · QBR 98.8

Edged out USC at home in a shootout.

With R. Freeman — 147 rush yds (20 car) · 2 rec · 50 yds · C. Nelson — 1 rec · 26 yds · 1 TD

Signature plays

The plays that mattered most

Week 9 · Arizona State · 4th and 1 · Q2 · EPA +4.85Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Darren Carrington for 39 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)
Week 12 · USC · 2nd and 24 · Q2 · EPA +4.71Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Kani Benoit for 30 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)
Week 7 · Washington · 3rd and 10 · Q1 · EPA +4.67Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Darren Carrington for 36 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
Week 11 · Stanford · 2nd and 9 · Q2 · EPA +4.52Adams Jr. to Carrington: a 47-yard touchdown pass.
Week 10 · California · 3rd and 15 · Q2 · EPA +4.34Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Darren Carrington for 46 yds to the Cal 13 for a
Week 10 · California · 3rd and 8 · Q3 · EPA +4.19Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Darren Carrington for 43 yds to the Cal 32 for a

4 more plays

Week 7 · Washington · 3rd and 7 · Q1 · EPA +4.16Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 48 yds to the Wash 36 for a
Week 7 · Washington · 3rd and 13 · Q2 · EPA +4.06Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Bralon Addison for 44 yds to the Wash 11 for a
Week 1 · TCU · 3rd and 10 · Q1 · EPA +4.06Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Darren Carrington for 44 yds to the TCU 40 for a
Week 10 · California · 2nd and 10 · Q4 · EPA −4.03Vernon Adams Jr. pass intercepted, touchback. Darius White return for no gain

Passing profile

Pass Profile · Completions by yards gained (PBP)

Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from

168/259 (64.9%) · 26 TD · 6 INT

252 of 259 attempts matched to play-by-play

Totals here are the box score's. Play-by-play lists 252 passing plays (162 completions) against the box score's 259 attempts (168 completions), and the depth buckets use play-by-play.

Adjusted ANY/A

9.655 of 198 QBs

Sack rate

8.8%172 of 198 QBs

Sacked on 8.8% of dropbacks (172 of 198) — and still 5 of 198 in Adjusted ANY/A.

Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.

Short

0–9 yds

40%of completions

64 comp5.1 yds avg3 TD

Middle

10–19 yds

32%of completions

52 comp13.6 yds avg3 TD

Deep

20+ yds

28%of completions

46 comp31.1 yds avg14 TD

Overall 64.9% completion on 259 attempts · 46 deep completions averaging 31.1 yds.

Situational

Is he a different quarterback when it matters

Each situation vs his own 2015 baseline

No situation moves him more than 62 percentile points from his baseline.

BaselineThis situation

Down 1

-35 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 6/110 (5.5%) · league sack rate 4.8%

Down 2

-7 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 7/89 (7.9%) · league sack rate 5.0%

Down 3+

+62 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 11/72 (15.3%) · league sack rate 8.3%

Deltas are vs. this player’s own season baseline, never a league average. League sack rate by down is shown as context because sack attribution isn’t incompletion-denominated.

Teams and coaches

2015Oregon9-4HC: Mark Helfrich · Run-heavy, fast tempo

Our ratings

Show the ratings

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

12 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: epa / dropback (98th percentile). Strength: explosive rate (98th percentile). Concern: sack rate (11th percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

EPA / dropback#4 / 176 · 98th pct

0.47

Explosive rate#4 / 176 · 98th pct

18.3%

Success rate#14 / 176 · 92nd pct

48.6%

Interception rate#50 / 176 · 72nd pct

2.0%

Sack rate#157 / 176 · 11th pct

9.0%

Box-score rates (7)

Yards / att#5 / 167 · 97th pct

10.2

Pass TDs#23 / 167 · 86th pct

Completion %#24 / 167 · 86th pct

64.9%

Pass yards#52 / 167 · 69th pct

2643

Interceptions#49 / 167 · 65th pct

Rush yards#72 / 167 · 57th pct

147

Rush TDs#70 / 167 · 50th pct

Season trend

EPA / dropback— first qualifying season

Success rate— first qualifying season

Explosive rate— first qualifying season

Sack rate— first qualifying season

Interception rate— first qualifying season

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Zeitgeist Passer Rating

2015 · our own passing-efficiency number, shown next to the 1979 formula it does not replace.

High confidence: 271 dropbacks

79Zeitgeist Passer Rating9th of 137 FBS QBs

NCAA passer rating 179.1 2nd of 137 FBS QBs

Positive-play rate weight 24%

51.6%91th pct of FBS QBs

share of dropbacks that gained expected points · -1.5% schedule adj.

Yards per attempt weight 56%

9.2898th pct of FBS QBs

sacks excluded · -0.7 schedule adj.

Sack rate weight 21% (penalty)

8.4%18th pct of FBS QBs

the input passer rating cannot see · -0.4% schedule adj.

Opponent-adjusted; garbage time excluded (3 of 274 dropbacks dropped). 50 = FBS average; the number is pulled toward 50 when the sample is thin. How ZPR is built.

Splits

Home and road splits, scheme and staff

Splits · Per-game

2015 season · 10 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Home5g	269	3.2	9.9	0.6
Road4g	275	2.2	11.0	0.8

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Weeks 1-75g	210	1.4	8.5	0.4
Weeks 8+5g	319	3.8	12.2	0.8

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2015 season

Head Coach

Mark Helfrich

Pass share

38.3%

375 pass / 604 run

Plays / game

75.3

13 games

Scheme: Run-heavy, fast tempo.

Awards

Player standing · 2015

Heisman model top 25

Our Heisman model had this player inside its top 25 in 2015.

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex