Bryce Perkins

QB · Virginia 2019 · #3

Last confirmed: Virginia, 2019. No 2026 box-score games on record.

6′3″ · 215 lb · Queen Creek, AZ

Bryce Perkins: QB · Virginia · #3.

Players he’s like

Closest statistical matches, adjusted for opponent strength.

Kellen MondTexas A&M · 2019 · 84% season match
Joshua DobbsTennessee · 2014 · 81% season match
Alex McGoughFlorida International · 2017 · 78% season match
Adrian MartinezNebraska · 2018 · 78% season match
Desmond RidderCincinnati · 2020 · 71% season match

Bryce Perkins

QB · Virginia · Sr · #3

Extends plays with his feet until something opens up. This is his second year in the same quarterback room at Virginia. On tape: 378 passing yards and 112 rushing yards against North Carolina, Week 10, 2019.

How he plays

Play style

Makes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise.

Checkdown vs gunslinger · 3rd-and-long

Where the completions actually land

49.1%Completion %

28.8%Conversion/dropback

32.1%Land short of sticks

4INTs

49.1% completion on 3rd-and-8+, but only 28.8% conversion-per-dropback — 32.1% of completions land short of the sticks.

Where completions land is fact — whether incompletions were aimed deep is intent, not recorded here, so this card counts completions only. checkdown by design

Short-yardage / goal-line · enumeration

Who gets the tough yard

11/123rd/4th & short

13/29Inside-5 share

11 of 12 on 3rd/4th-and-2-or-less (91.7%). 13 of the team's 29 inside-the-5 carries (44.8%).

News and fans

No outlet on our list has written about him by name this season.

Virginia in the news

Ethan Minter out for Duke gameWww2 Dailyprogress Oct 21
Kam Courtney out for gameThe Daily Progress Oct 16

Where to follow him

Career stats

Swipe the table sideways for more columns.

Season	Team
2019	Virginia	320	496	64.5%	3,538	7.1	22	12	134.2	67
2018	Virginia	225	349	64.5%	2,679	7.7	25	9	147.4	57
Career		545	845	64.5%	6,217	7.4	47	21	139.7	63

Season	Team
2019	Virginia	227	769	3.4	11
2018	Virginia	211	924	4.4	9
Career		438	1,693	3.9	20

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2019 season · 14 games

Box score · CFBD

Swipe the table sideways for more columns.

Wk	Opp	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA	QBR	Note
Wk 1	W 30-14@ Pittsburgh	20/34	181	2	0	5.3	50.0	4 TD passes
Wk 2	W 52-17vs William & Mary	16/26	192	2	2	7.4	95.9
Wk 3	W 31-24vs Florida State	30/40	295	1	2	7.4	70.9
Wk 4	W 28-17vs Old Dominion	15/24	175	1	0	7.3	55.9
Wk 5	L 20-35@ No. 10 Notre Dame	30/43	334	2	2	7.8	32.7
Wk 7	L 9-17@ Miami	25/42	252	0	0	6.0	59.6
Wk 8	W 48-14vs Duke	13/26	141	0	1	5.4	46.4
Wk 9	L 21-28@ Louisville	24/41	233	1	1	5.7	39.8
Wk 10	W 38-31@ North Carolina	30/39	378	3	0	9.7	—	Season-high 378 yds
Wk 11	W 33-28vs Georgia Tech	24/35	258	1	0	7.4	—
Wk 13	W 55-27vs Liberty	18/30	199	2	0	6.6	—
Wk 14	W 39-30vs No. 23 Virginia Tech	20/33	311	1	1	9.4	—
Wk 15	L 17-62@ No. 3 Clemson	27/43	266	2	2	6.2	—
Bowl	L 28-36vs No. 6 Florida	28/40	323	4	1	8.1	—
Total		320/496	3538	22	12	7.1	—

Signature game

Week 10 · 2019

W 38-31

at North Carolina

378 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT · 112 rush yds (24 car) · 2 TD

Edged out North Carolina on the road in a shootout.

With N. Griffin — 38.5 yards per punt · 4 punts · 1 inside the 20 · T. Jana — 13 rec · 146 yds

Signature plays

The plays that mattered most

Week 14 · Virginia Tech · 3rd and 2 · Q1 · EPA +6.30Bryce Perkins run for 67 yds for a TD, (Brian Delaney KICK)
Week 10 · North Carolina · 1st and 10 · Q3 · EPA +5.24Bryce Perkins run for 65 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)
Week 7 · Miami · 3rd and 14 · Q2 · EPA +4.43Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 49 yds to the MiaFl 8 for a
Week 9 · Louisville · 2nd and 6 · Q2 · EPA −4.29Bryce Perkins pass intercepted Chandler Jones return for no gain to the Lvile 8
Week 2 · William & Mary · 3rd and 1 · Q2 · EPA −4.12Bryce Perkins pass intercepted Miles Hayes return for 10 yds to the WmMry 20
Week 8 · Duke · 3rd and 8 · Q1 · EPA −3.99Bryce Perkins pass intercepted, touchback. Leonard Johnson return for no gain

4 more plays

Week 15 · Clemson · 3rd and 9 · Q1 · EPA −3.91Bryce Perkins pass intercepted, touchback. Nolan Turner return for no gain
Week 3 · Florida State · 3rd and 5 · Q1 · EPA −3.89Bryce Perkins pass intercepted Asante Samuel Jr. return for no gain to the FlaSt 13
Week 1 · Florida · 3rd and 7 · Q4 · EPA −3.86Bryce Perkins pass intercepted Kaiir Elam return for no gain to the Fla 3
Week 2 · William & Mary · 3rd and 18 · Q1 · EPA +3.85Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 19 yds to the WmMry 34 for a

Passing profile

Pass Profile · Completions by yards gained (PBP)

Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from

320/496 (64.5%) · 22 TD · 12 INT

All 496 box-score attempts covered (play-by-play lists 498 passing plays)

Totals here are the box score's. Play-by-play lists 498 passing plays (320 completions) against the box score's 496 attempts (320 completions), and the depth buckets use play-by-play.

Adjusted ANY/A

6.01115 of 205 QBs

Sack rate

7.5%143 of 205 QBs

Sacked on 7.5% of dropbacks (143 of 205) and Adjusted ANY/A trails the field (115 of 205).

Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.

Short

0–9 yds

57%of completions

183 comp5.2 yds avg13 TD

Middle

10–19 yds

30%of completions

95 comp13.1 yds avg4 TD

Deep

20+ yds

13%of completions

42 comp32.0 yds avg5 TD

Overall 64.5% completion on 496 attempts · 42 deep completions averaging 32.0 yds.

Situational

Is he a different quarterback when it matters

Each situation vs his own 2019 baseline

No situation moves him more than 39 percentile points from his baseline.

BaselineThis situation

Down 1

-24 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 14/211 (6.6%) · league sack rate 4.8%

Down 2

-1 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 10/157 (6.4%) · league sack rate 5.5%

Down 3+

+39 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 15/135 (11.1%) · league sack rate 9.0%

Deltas are vs. this player’s own season baseline, never a league average. League sack rate by down is shown as context because sack attribution isn’t incompletion-denominated.

Teams and coaches

2 seasons under Bronco Mendenhall — 17-10 over that span.

2018Virginia8-5HC: Bronco Mendenhall · Run-leaning

2019Virginia9-5HC: Bronco Mendenhall · Balanced

Our ratings

Show the ratings

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

13 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: rush yards (96th percentile). Strength: rush tds (95th percentile). Concern: explosive rate (27th percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

Success rate#50 / 189 · 74th pct

44.3%

Interception rate#93 / 189 · 51st pct

2.4%

EPA / dropback#111 / 189 · 42nd pct

0.20

Sack rate#128 / 189 · 33rd pct

7.4%

Explosive rate#138 / 189 · 27th pct

8.4%

Box-score rates (8)

Rush yards#7 / 177 · 96th pct

769

Rush TDs#8 / 177 · 95th pct

Pass yards#16 / 177 · 91st pct

3538

Pass TDs#35 / 177 · 79th pct

Completion %#38 / 177 · 78th pct

64.5%

Yards / att#107 / 177 · 39th pct

7.1

Fumbles lost#113 / 166 · 24th pct

Interceptions#167 / 177 · 5th pct

Season trend

Last seasonThis season

EPA / dropback

62nd → 42nd percentile

Success rate

72nd → 74th percentile

Explosive rate

28th → 27th percentile

Sack rate

30th → 33rd percentile

Interception rate

46th → 51st percentile

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Zeitgeist Passer Rating

2019 · our own passing-efficiency number, shown next to the 1979 formula it does not replace.

High confidence: 503 dropbacks

67Zeitgeist Passer Rating29th of 140 FBS QBs

NCAA passer rating 134.2 78th of 140 FBS QBs

ZPR ranks him 49 places higher than passer rating does: the schedule adjustment credits him for the defenses he faced.

Positive-play rate weight 24%

52.3%90th pct of FBS QBs

share of dropbacks that gained expected points · +3.0% schedule adj.

Yards per attempt weight 56%

7.7863th pct of FBS QBs

sacks excluded · +0.5 schedule adj.

Sack rate weight 21% (penalty)

6.2%53th pct of FBS QBs

the input passer rating cannot see · -1.5% schedule adj.

Opponent-adjusted; garbage time excluded (34 of 537 dropbacks dropped). 50 = FBS average; the number is pulled toward 50 when the sample is thin. How ZPR is built.

Splits

Home and road splits, scheme and staff

Splits · Per-game

2019 season · 14 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Home7g	224	1.1	7.3	0.9
Road5g	276	1.6	6.9	0.6

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Weeks 1-77g	250	1.7	7.0	1.0
Weeks 8+7g	255	1.4	7.2	0.7

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2019 season

Head Coach

Bronco Mendenhall

Pass share

54.4%

519 pass / 435 run

Plays / game

68.1

14 games

Scheme: Balanced.

Awards

Player standing · 2019

Heisman model top 25

Our Heisman model had this player inside its top 25 in 2019.

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex