cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Caden Jenkins /Baylor

Caden Jenkins

CB · Baylor · Jr · #8

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

10 TACKLES · 0 SACKS

2026 TRANSFERTransferred Baylor → North Texas for 2026

Where He Ended Up · Transfer

Transferred to North Texas

2025Baylor
2026North Texas

CB · BAYLOR · BIG 12

Caden Jenkins

  • 3
  • #8
  • 6-1 | 178 lb
  • Lewisville, TX

CFB Zeitgeist Score

31

Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by passes defended at the 78th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#10592

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP DB AWARD

Jim Thorpe

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R05 · Part-time starter

Part-time starter. Splitting first-team reps.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★
#1104 national
CFB
College
Baylor
2023–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionCB
Class3
Jersey8
Measurements6-1 | 178 lb
HometownLewisville, TX
Primary teamBaylor

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 1104 recruit
Composite rating 0.8606 HighSchool
Signed with -- 2023
Origin Lewisville Lewisville, TX, USA
Class Profile Context
2023 3-star | 0.8606 No. 1104 recruit | HighSchool

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 1 Programs changed on file
Latest destination North Texas 2026
Transfer stars 3-star CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility Immediate Jan 8, 2026
Season Move Context
2026 Baylor -> North Texas 3-star | Immediate

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#10592Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#10849Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to —

Composite

0.8606

#1104 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Caden Jenkins

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Caden Jenkins

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the defensive totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 6g
10Tackles
1Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Per game
2Tackles
0.2Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Projected (13g)
22Tackles
2.2Tackles for loss
0Sacks

To hit 80-tackle season (currently 10): needs 10/game over remaining 7.

To hit 100-tackle season (currently 10): needs 12.9/game over remaining 7.

To hit 6-sack season (currently 0): needs 0.9/game over remaining 7.

To hit 10-sack season (currently 0): needs 1.4/game over remaining 7.

Why this is a rare defensive case

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Caden Jenkins is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Baylor's defense, with 0.0 sacks, 1.0 tackles for loss, and -- interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.

Current place #10592 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load -- Role share still loading
Profile quirk Defensive rarity 0.0 sacks | 1.0 TFL

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

DEF season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Total tackles 10 9 solo | #2859/4942 (42nd pct)
TFL 1.0 Backfield disruption | #2051/4972 (59th pct)
Sacks 0.0 Pass-rush finish | #1762/4972 (65th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Defensive contributor against FBS defenders.

Balanced profile

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Tackling & Disruption

TOT
10 42nd
SOLO
9 54th
TFL
1.0 59th
SACK
0.0 65th

Coverage & Takeaways

PD
3 76th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 6 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppTKLSOLOTFLSACKINTPDNote
Wk 1L 24-38vs Auburn110.00.01
Wk 3W 42-7vs Samford330.00.00Season-high 3 tackles
Wk 4L 24-27vs Arizona State221.00.01
Wk 5W 45-27@ Oklahoma State220.00.01
Wk 8L 36-42@ TCU110.00.00
Wk 9L 20-41@ Cincinnati100.00.00
Total1091.00.03
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2023Baylor3-9HC: Dave Aranda · Balanced
2024Baylor8-5HC: Dave Aranda · Run-leaning
2025Baylor5-7HC: Dave Aranda · Pass-leaning, fast tempo
SeasonTeam
2025Baylor1091.00.03----
2024Baylor25210.00.041--
2023Baylor37261.00.033--
Career3 loaded seasons72562.00.0104--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Disruption stats

TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.

Coverage splash

Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

INT -- -- pick-six TD
Pass breakups 3 Coverage disruption | #521/2184 (76th pct)
QB pressures 0 Quarterback hurries
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Defense Total tackles 10 #2859/4942 42nd pct Volumevs FBS DEF
Defense TFL 1.0 #2051/4972 59th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Sacks 0.0 #1762/4972 65th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Pass breakups 3 #521/2184 76th pct Coveragevs FBS DEF
Defense Solo tackles 9 #2127/4584 54th pct Volumevs FBS DEF

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

The Thorpe award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 6 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Home3g2.00.30.00.7
Road3g1.30.00.00.3

Win vs Loss

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Wins2g2.50.00.00.5
Losses4g1.20.20.00.5

First half vs Second half

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Weeks 1-74g2.00.20.00.8
Weeks 8+2g1.00.00.00.0

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the CB cohort

31Below cohort
6 metrics · season cumulative

Concern: tackles (1st).

Passes defended#517 / 2975 · 78th pct
3defe
Tackles for loss#1936 / 2975 · 28th pct
1.0defe
Solo tackles#2127 / 2975 · 26th pct
9defe
Sacks#1575 / 2975 · 24th pct
0.0defe
QB hurries#1662 / 2975 · 22nd pct
0defe
Tackles#2859 / 2975 · 2nd pct
10defe

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · CB · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 6 metrics
Caden JenkinsBaylorTyler MartinMassachusetts· 51% simTahj Ra-ElPurdue· 49% simDalton JohnsonArizona· 48% sim
Passes defended
78
Jenkins
67
Martin
91
Ra-El
96
Johnson
Tackles for loss
28
Jenkins
63
Martin
56
Ra-El
47
Johnson
Solo tackles
26
Jenkins
87
Martin
100
Ra-El
97
Johnson
Sacks
24
Jenkins
24
Martin
24
Ra-El
63
Johnson
QB hurries
22
Jenkins
22
Martin
22
Ra-El
22
Johnson
Tackles
2
Jenkins
98
Martin
99
Ra-El
98
Johnson

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Ball Hawk

Reads the quarterback's eyes and takes the ball away.

CB

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Jamar Richardson’s 2022 season.

Jamar Richardson

85%match

South Alabama · 2022

#2

Jevon McIver Jr.

TCU · 2024

82%
#3

Ira Oniha

Navy · 2025

81%
#4

Stilton McKelvey

New Mexico State · 2025

76%
#5

Dorian Strong

Virginia Tech · 2023

NFL Rd 6
76%

Matches Jamar on

Weight
PD rate
Tackle volume

Not enough data yet for this comparison.

As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Jayden Bellamy's junior season at UCF (2025).

Jayden Bellamy

89%match

UCF · 2025

#2

Joey Porter Jr.

Penn State · 2022

All-Big TenNFL Rd 2 · Pk 1
79%
#3

Max Melton

Rutgers · 2022

NFL Rd 2 · Pk 11
78%
#4

Thaddeus Dixon

North Carolina · 2025

73%
#5

Daylen Austin

Oregon · 2025

72%

Matches Jayden on

Class year
Height
PD rate

Differs from Jayden on

Tackle volume (lower)

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Dave Aranda

Pass share

55.5%

510 pass / 409 run

Plays / game

76.6

12 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

5.0%

417 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Pass-leaning, fast tempo.

Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025

1 coach
2023
Dave Aranda
Baylor
2024
Dave Aranda
Baylor
2025
Dave Aranda
Baylor

Played his entire career under Dave Aranda.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownLewisville, TX
Height6'1"
Weight178 lb
Class3
PositionCB
Jersey8

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Baylor CB3 #10592 #10849 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | Big 12
2023 Baylor CB3 #12262 #12824 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | Big 12

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Baylor Big 12 CB 3 No. 8 | 6-1 | 178 lb | Lewisville, TX
2024 Baylor Big 12 CB 3 No. 8 | 6-1 | 178 lb | Lewisville, TX
2023 Baylor Big 12 CB 3 No. 8 | 6-1 | 178 lb | Lewisville, TX