Dane Evans

QB · Tulsa 2016 · #9

Last confirmed: Tulsa, 2016. No 2026 box-score games on record.

6′1″ · Sanger, TX

Dane Evans: QB · Tulsa · #9.

Players he’s like

Closest statistical matches, adjusted for opponent strength.

Conner ManningGeorgia State · 2016 · 82% season match
Deondre FrancoisFlorida State · 2016 · 81% season match
Thomas WoodsonAkron · 2016 · 80% season match
Nick MullensSouthern Miss · 2016 · 79% season match
Michael BrewerVirginia Tech · 2015 · 76% season match

Dane Evans

QB · Tulsa · #9

Operates within the system without forcing anything. Three seasons at Tulsa, two different head coaches: Bill Blankenship and Philip Montgomery. A game that shows it: 369 passing yards and 7 rushing yards against Navy — Week 11, 2016.

How he plays

Play style

Balanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile.

Q4 transformation · one-season descriptive

Fourth-quarter surge

2Real games backing it up

0.236Q1-3 EPA/dropback

0.705Q4 EPA/dropback

2 times this season the team trailed entering the fourth quarter and won — and it shows in the tape: 0.236 → 0.705 EPA/dropback into the fourth.

t=2.12 (n=344/47), one season of descriptive data — never a predictive trait. Across ~200 QB-seasons screened at this threshold, expected false positives run near 5%.

Checkdown vs gunslinger · 3rd-and-long

Where the completions actually land

48.1%Completion %

30.5%Conversion/dropback

28.0%Land short of sticks

3INTs

48.1% completion on 3rd-and-8+, but only 30.5% conversion-per-dropback — 28.0% of completions land short of the sticks.

Where completions land is fact — whether incompletions were aimed deep is intent, not recorded here, so this card counts completions only. checkdown by design

Short-yardage / goal-line · enumeration

Who gets the tough yard

2/37Inside-5 share

2 of the team's 37 inside-the-5 carries (5.4%).

News and fans

No outlet on our list has written about him by name this season.

Where to follow him

Career stats

Swipe the table sideways for more columns.

Season	Team
2016	Tulsa	259	435	59.5%	3,348	7.7	32	12	142.9	64
2015	Tulsa	305	485	62.9%	4,332	8.9	25	8	151.6	60
2014	Tulsa	256	462	55.4%	3,102	6.7	23	17	120.9	54
Career		820	1,382	59.3%	10,782	7.8	80	37	138.6	59

Season	Team
2016	Tulsa	47	−29	−0.6	4
2015	Tulsa	96	−9	−0.1	2
2014	Tulsa	77	58	0.8	3
Career		220	20	0.1	9

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2016 season · 13 games

Box score · CFBD

Swipe the table sideways for more columns.

Wk	Opp	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA	QBR	Note
Wk 1	W 45-10vs San José State	12/23	198	1	0	8.6	43.6	5 TD passes
Wk 2	L 3-48@ No. 4 Ohio State	15/32	127	0	4	4.0	5.2	4 INTs — rough day
Wk 3	W 58-21vs North Carolina A&T	19/29	282	3	1	9.7	76.6	3 TD passes
Wk 4	W 48-41@ Fresno State	24/34	281	4	1	8.3	94.7	4 TD passes
Wk 6	W 43-40vs SMU	25/44	247	1	1	5.6	51.4
Wk 7	L 31-38@ No. 13 Houston	27/51	365	1	1	7.2	50.1
Wk 8	W 50-27vs Tulane	14/23	236	3	0	10.3	93.2	3 TD passes
Wk 9	W 59-30@ Memphis	20/33	234	2	0	7.1	87.0
Wk 10	W 45-24vs East Carolina	22/38	274	3	0	7.2	74.2	3 TD passes
Wk 11	L 40-42@ Navy	16/27	369	4	1	13.7	97.5	Season-high 369 yds
Wk 12	W 35-20@ UCF	12/25	126	2	1	5.0	36.4
Wk 13	W 40-37vs Cincinnati	25/38	305	3	2	8.0	82.4	3 TD passes
Bowl	W 55-10vs Central Michigan	28/38	304	5	0	8.0	89.9
Total		259/435	3348	32	12	7.7	—

Signature game

Week 11 · 2016

L 40-42

at Navy

369 yds · 4 TD · 1 INT · QBR 97.5

With K. Lucas — 2 rec · 75 yds · 1 TD · 30 rush yds (2 car) · J. Hobbs — 5 rec · 123 yds

Signature plays

The plays that mattered most

Week 2 · Ohio State · 1st and 10 · Q2 · EPA −7.46Dane Evans pass intercepted for a TD Malik Hooker return for 26 yds for a TD, (Tyler Durbin KICK)
Week 2 · Ohio State · 3rd and 6 · Q2 · EPA −7.01Dane Evans pass intercepted for a TD Marshon Lattimore return for 40 yds for a TD, (Tyler Durbin KICK)
Week 12 · UCF · 3rd and 15 · Q1 · EPA −6.68Dane Evans pass intercepted for a TD D.J. Killings return for 28 yds for a TD, (Nick Patti pass to Cal Bloom for Two-Point Conversion)
Week 11 · Navy · 1st and 10 · Q1 · EPA +6.01Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 74 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
Week 4 · Fresno State · 4th and 6 · Q2 · EPA +5.61Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 40 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
Week 11 · Navy · 4th and 8 · Q4 · EPA +5.29Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 44 yds to the Navy 1 for a

4 more plays

Week 10 · East Carolina · 1st and 10 · Q3 · EPA +5.15Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 64 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
Week 11 · Navy · 2nd and 6 · Q2 · EPA +4.92Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 56 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
Week 2 · Ohio State · 1st and 10 · Q4 · EPA −4.40Dane Evans run for a loss of 14 yards to the OhSt 35 Dane Evans fumbled, recovered by OhSt Tyquan Lewis , return for no gain to the OhSt 35
Week 7 · Houston · 1st and 10 · Q2 · EPA −4.35Dane Evans pass intercepted Howard Wilson return for 4 yds to the Houst 26

Passing profile

Pass Profile · Completions by yards gained (PBP)

Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from

259/435 (59.5%) · 32 TD · 12 INT

425 of 435 attempts matched to play-by-play

Totals here are the box score's. Play-by-play lists 425 passing plays (250 completions) against the box score's 435 attempts (259 completions), and the depth buckets use play-by-play.

Adjusted ANY/A

7.2947 of 193 QBs

Sack rate

4.4%51 of 193 QBs

Rarely sacked (51 of 193 QBs) and still 47 of 193 in Adjusted ANY/A.

Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.

Short

0–9 yds

47%of completions

117 comp5.8 yds avg5 TD

Middle

10–19 yds

39%of completions

97 comp13.4 yds avg6 TD

Deep

20+ yds

14%of completions

36 comp35.1 yds avg14 TD

Overall 59.5% completion on 435 attempts · 36 deep completions averaging 35.1 yds.

Situational

Is he a different quarterback when it matters

Each situation vs his own 2016 baseline

No situation moves him more than 24 percentile points from his baseline.

BaselineThis situation

Down 1

-24 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 5/143 (3.5%) · league sack rate 4.9%

Down 2

+7 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 1/141 (0.7%) · league sack rate 5.1%

Down 3+

+23 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 12/109 (11.0%) · league sack rate 8.5%

Deltas are vs. this player’s own season baseline, never a league average. League sack rate by down is shown as context because sack attribution isn’t incompletion-denominated.

Teams and coaches

2014Tulsa2-10HC: Bill Blankenship · Balanced, fast tempo

2015Tulsa6-7HC: Philip Montgomery · Run-leaning, fast tempo

2016Tulsa10-3HC: Philip Montgomery · Run-leaning, fast tempo

Our ratings

Show the ratings

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

13 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: success rate (88th percentile). Strength: epa / dropback (82nd percentile). Concern: interceptions (11th percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

Success rate#20 / 172 · 88th pct

46.5%

EPA / dropback#32 / 172 · 82nd pct

0.30

Sack rate#46 / 172 · 74th pct

4.5%

Interception rate#101 / 172 · 42nd pct

2.6%

Explosive rate#118 / 172 · 32nd pct

8.5%

Box-score rates (8)

Pass TDs#11 / 167 · 93rd pct

Pass yards#26 / 167 · 85th pct

3348

Yards / att#53 / 167 · 67th pct

7.7

Rush TDs#52 / 167 · 65th pct

Completion %#72 / 167 · 57th pct

59.5%

Rush yards#137 / 167 · 18th pct

-29

Fumbles lost#132 / 163 · 14th pct

Interceptions#146 / 167 · 11th pct

Season trend

Last seasonThis season

EPA / dropback

82nd → 82nd percentile

Success rate

55th → 88th percentile

Explosive rate

90th → 32nd percentile

Sack rate

25th → 74th percentile

Interception rate

84th → 42nd percentile

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Zeitgeist Passer Rating

2016 · our own passing-efficiency number, shown next to the 1979 formula it does not replace.

High confidence: 393 dropbacks

64Zeitgeist Passer Rating29th of 131 FBS QBs

NCAA passer rating 142.9 40th of 131 FBS QBs

ZPR ranks him 11 places higher than passer rating does: he produces positive plays and yards per attempt at a higher rate than his box line suggests.

Positive-play rate weight 24%

48.3%76th pct of FBS QBs

share of dropbacks that gained expected points · -0.5% schedule adj.

Yards per attempt weight 56%

7.7266th pct of FBS QBs

sacks excluded

Sack rate weight 21% (penalty)

5.3%64th pct of FBS QBs

the input passer rating cannot see · +0.7% schedule adj.

Opponent-adjusted; garbage time excluded (52 of 445 dropbacks dropped). 50 = FBS average; the number is pulled toward 50 when the sample is thin. How ZPR is built.

Splits

Home and road splits, scheme and staff

Splits · Per-game

2016 season · 13 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Home6g	257	2.3	8.2	0.7
Road6g	250	2.2	7.5	1.3

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Weeks 1-77g	258	2.1	7.3	1.1
Weeks 8+6g	257	2.8	8.5	0.7

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2016 season

Head Coach

Philip Montgomery

Pass share

40.5%

448 pass / 658 run

Plays / game

85.1

13 games

Scheme: Run-leaning, fast tempo.

Awards

Player standing · 2016

Impact starter

435 pass attempts and 47 carries in 13 games, about as many passes and runs a game as a typical FBS quarterback who plays every week.

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex