Darren Grainger

Senior quarterback for Georgia State. 2023: 2,625 passing yards, 20 TD, 7 INT.

QB · Georgia State · Sr. · #3

6′4″ · 225 lb · Conway, SC

CFB Index 61 · #40 of 140 QBsHigh confidenceGeorgia State 2023 alumnus

The story

4 quarterback for Georgia State. 2023: 2,625 passing yards, 20 TD, 7 INT.

Transferred from Furman to Georgia State in 2021.

His career, year by year

How it ended

Three seasons at Georgia State, 6,771 passing yards — his college career is complete.

His career

Nobody recruited him. He earned the honors anyway.

202112 games

Entered the portal

Career arc

Recruit

—

No recruit profile

CFB

College

Georgia State

2021–2023

NFL

NFL Draft

—

Not drafted

Coaching lineage · 2021–2023

1 coach

2021–2023

Shawn Elliott

Georgia State

Played his entire career under Shawn Elliott.

2023 snapshot

Season context · Team result + system

3 seasons under Shawn Elliott — 19-19 over that span.

2021Georgia State8-5HC: Shawn Elliott · Run-heavy

2022Georgia State4-8HC: Shawn Elliott · Run-heavy

2023Georgia State7-6HC: Shawn Elliott · Run-leaning

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

61Quality starter #40 of 140?

High confidence13 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: sack rate (85th percentile). Strength: rush yards (95th percentile). Concern: explosive rate (16th percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

Sack rate#27 / 177 · 85th pct

3.2%

Success rate#71 / 177 · 60th pct

43.4%

EPA / dropback#80 / 177 · 55th pct

0.28

Interception rate#98 / 177 · 45th pct

0.6%

Explosive rate#149 / 177 · 16th pct

7.3%

Box-score rates (8)

Rush yards#10 / 179 · 95th pct

736

Rush TDs#9 / 179 · 94th pct

Completion %#16 / 179 · 91st pct

68.2%

Pass TDs#47 / 179 · 72nd pct

Pass yards#56 / 179 · 69th pct

2625

Yards / att#83 / 179 · 53rd pct

7.3

Interceptions#98 / 179 · 42nd pct

Fumbles lost#125 / 167 · 20th pct

Season trend

Last seasonThis season

EPA / dropback

62nd → 55th percentile

Success rate

15th → 60th percentile

Explosive rate

61st → 16th percentile

Sack rate

10th → 85th percentile

Interception rate

67th → 45th percentile

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Passing profile

Pass Profile · Completions by yards gained (PBP)

Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from

238/348 (68.4%) · 20 TD · 7 INT

348 of 358 attempts matched to play-by-play

Adjusted ANY/A

7.0075 of 212 QBs

Sack rate

4.3%65 of 212 QBs

Rarely sacked (65 of 212 QBs) and still 75 of 212 in Adjusted ANY/A.

Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.

Short

0–9 yds

63%of completions

151 comp4.5 yds avg6 TD

Middle

10–19 yds

25%of completions

60 comp13.5 yds avg3 TD

Deep

20+ yds

11%of completions

27 comp38.6 yds avg8 TD

Overall 68.4% completion on 348 attempts · 27 deep completions averaging 38.6 yds.

Situational

Is he a different quarterback when it matters

Each situation vs his own 2023 baseline

No situation moves him more than 42 percentile points from his baseline.

BaselineThis situation

Down 1

-23 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 1/127 (0.8%) · league sack rate 4.9% · ~our read

Down 2

-11 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 7/91 (7.7%) · league sack rate 5.2% · ~our read

Down 3+

+42 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 6/93 (6.5%) · league sack rate 9.1% · ~our read

Deltas are vs. this player’s own season baseline, never a league average. League sack rate by down is shown as context because sack attribution isn’t incompletion-denominated.

Splits & context

Splits · Per-game

2023 season · 13 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Home6g	160	1.0	6.3	0.5
Road7g	238	2.0	8.4	0.6

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Weeks 1-77g	240	1.6	8.9	0.3
Weeks 8+6g	158	1.5	5.7	0.8

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2026 season

Head Coach

Dell McGee

Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.

Awards

Player standing · 2023

Impact starter

Producing measurably more than a replacement-level starter.

Recognition

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Production · CFB Index Score

61 · #40 of 140 QBs

Career stats

Season	Team
2023	Georgia State	244	358	68.2%	2,625	7.3	20	7	144.3	46	--	--
2022	Georgia State	173	296	58.4%	2,431	8.2	18	7	142.8	38	--	--
2021	Georgia State	136	228	59.6%	1,715	7.5	19	4	146.8	42	--	--
Career		553	882	62.7%	6,771	7.7	57	18	144.4	42	--	--

Season	Team
2023	Georgia State	159	736	4.6	10	--
2022	Georgia State	165	752	4.6	7	--
2021	Georgia State	134	646	4.8	3	--
Career		458	2,134	4.7	20	--

Signature game

SIGNATURE GAME · Week 1 · 2023

W 42–35

vs Rhode Island

193 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT · QBR 40.4 · 51 rush yds (12 car)

Edged out Rhode Island at home in a shootout.

With K. Loggins — 47 AVG · 2 IN 20 · 52 LONG · R. Lewis — 7 rec · 97 yds · 1 TD

Signature plays

Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|

The plays that mattered most

fact

Week 3 · Charlotte · 1&10 · Q2 · EPA +6.96Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 97 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)
Week 10 · James Madison · 3&10 · Q3 · EPA +6.53Darren Grainger run for 58 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)
Week 3 · Charlotte · 1&10 · Q3 · EPA +6.27Darren Grainger pass complete to Tailique Williams for 78 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)
Week 7 · Marshall · 2&3 · Q2 · EPA +5.93Darren Grainger pass complete to Tailique Williams for 74 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)
Week 3 · Charlotte · 3&6 · Q3 · EPA +5.37Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 59 yds to the CLT 1 for a 1ST down
Week 2 · UConn · 1&10 · Q1 · EPA +5.24Darren Grainger run for 65 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)
Week 8 · Louisiana · 3&24 · Q2 · EPA +5.13Darren Grainger pass complete to Ahmon Green for 24 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman PAT MISSED)
Week 3 · Charlotte · 3&12 · Q4 · EPA +5.11Robert Lewis 38 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Liam Rickman Kick)
Week 5 · Troy · 2&1 · Q4 · EPA -5.10Darren Grainger run for a loss of 4 yards to the TROY 32 Darren Grainger fumbled, recovered by TROY Jayden McDonald
Week 11 · App State · 2&4 · Q1 · EPA -4.67Darren Grainger run for a loss of 4 yards to the APP 8 Darren Grainger fumbled, recovered by APP Andrew Parker Jr. [NHSG] QB Keeper GRAINGER, Darren rush to the left for a loss of 4 yards, GRAINGER, Darren fumbled at APP7 forced by MOFFITT, Trevor, recovered by APP PARKER JR., Andrew at the APP8, returned 0 yards to the APP8, End of Play, clock 03:03.

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2023 season · 13 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA	QBR	Note
Wk 1	W 42-35vs Rhode Island	16/20	193	2	0	9.7	40.4	3 TD passes
Wk 2	W 35-14vs UConn	15/26	144	1	0	5.5	74.2
Wk 3	W 41-25@ Charlotte	27/33	466	3	0	14.1	93.7	Season-high 466 yds
Wk 4	W 30-17@ Coastal Carolina	15/26	191	1	0	7.3	67.3
Wk 5	L 7-28vs Troy	19/29	193	0	2	6.7	7.4
Wk 7	W 41-24vs Marshall	21/31	234	1	0	7.5	65.1
Wk 8	W 20-17@ Louisiana	17/22	211	2	0	9.6	68.5
Wk 9	L 27-44@ Georgia Southern	21/37	157	2	2	4.2	32.5
Wk 10	L 14-42vs James Madison	10/19	82	0	0	4.3	90.4
Wk 11	L 14-42vs App State	15/28	115	2	1	4.1	2.1
Wk 12	L 14-56@ LSU	23/29	179	1	0	6.2	82.1
Wk 13	L 24-25@ Old Dominion	26/36	203	2	2	5.6	53.0
Bowl	W 45-22@ Utah State	19/22	257	3	0	11.7	92.8
Total		244/358	2625	20	7	7.4	59.2

How he plays

Play style

Makes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise.

CFB Index positional classification

Checkdown vs gunslinger · 3rd-and-long

Where the completions actually land

fact

68.6%Completion %

32.1%Conversion/dropback

51.4%Land short of sticks

0INTs

68.6% completion on 3rd-and-8+, but only 32.1% conversion-per-dropback — 51.4% of completions land short of the sticks.

Where completions land is fact — whether incompletions were aimed deep is intent, not recorded here, so this card counts completions only. ~ our read: checkdown by design

Short-yardage / goal-line · enumeration

Who gets the tough yard

fact

3/24Inside-5 share

3 of the team's 24 inside-the-5 carries (12.5%).