cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Dorrian Smith /Georgia Southern

Dorrian Smith

DB · Georgia Southern · Sr · #23

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

45 TACKLES · 0 SACKS

2026 RETURNINGReturning to Georgia Southern for 2026

2026 Outlook

Returning to Georgia Southern for 2026

2026 Depth chart

Projected starter

Defensive back · Georgia Southern

Returning around him

  • 92% of 2024 offensive production back (Strong continuity)
  • Transfer portal: -1 net (17 in / 18 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

Georgia Southern · Last season: 7-6 · Talent rank #93 · 2026 recruiting class #80

DB · GEORGIA SOUTHERN · SUN BELT

Dorrian Smith

  • 4
  • #23
  • 5-10 | 185 lb
  • Fort Valley, GA

CFB Zeitgeist Score

62

Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by tackles for loss at the 87th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#14049

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP DB AWARD

Jim Thorpe

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R05 · Part-time starter

Part-time starter. Splitting first-team reps.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★
#2298 national
CFB
College
Georgia Southern
2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Heisman futures · live sportsbook odds

#8 in market ▼ from #6 · 4 books

+10009.1% implied

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionDB
Class4
Jersey23
Measurements5-10 | 185 lb
HometownFort Valley, GA
Primary teamGeorgia Southern

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 2-star No. 2298 recruit
Composite rating 0.7894 HighSchool
Signed with Georgia Southern 2023
Origin ProKick Australia Australia, AUST, USA
Class Profile Context
2023 2-star | 0.7894 No. 2298 recruit | HighSchool | Georgia Southern

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 0 No portal entry on file
Latest destination -- --
Transfer stars -- CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility -- Transfer date TBD
Season Move Context
No transfer portal moves on file for this player.

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#14049Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#13951Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★☆☆☆

to Georgia Southern

Composite

0.7894

#2298 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Dorrian Smith

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Dorrian Smith

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the defensive totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 12g
45Tackles
6.5Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Per game
4Tackles
0.5Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Projected (13g)
49Tackles
7Tackles for loss
0Sacks

To hit 80-tackle season (currently 45): needs 35/game over remaining 1.

To hit 100-tackle season (currently 45): needs 55/game over remaining 1.

To hit 6-sack season (currently 0): needs 6/game over remaining 1.

To hit 10-sack season (currently 0): needs 10/game over remaining 1.

Why this is a rare defensive case

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Dorrian Smith is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Georgia Southern's defense, with 0.0 sacks, 6.5 tackles for loss, and 2 interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.

Current place #14049 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load -- Role share still loading
Profile quirk Defensive rarity 0.0 sacks | 6.5 TFL

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

DEF season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Total tackles 45 30 solo | #729/4942 (85th pct)
TFL 6.5 Backfield disruption | #340/4972 (93rd pct)
Sacks 0.0 Pass-rush finish | #1762/4972 (65th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

High-disruption defender | Coverage splash | High-volume tackler against FBS defenders.

High-disruption defenderCoverage splashHigh-volume tackler

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Tackling & Disruption

TOT
45 85th
SOLO
30 89th
TFL
6.5 93rd
SACK
0.0 65th

Coverage & Takeaways

PD
3 76th
INT
2 87th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 12 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppTKLSOLOTFLSACKINTPDNote
Wk 1L 14-42@ Fresno State000.00.01
Wk 3W 41-34vs Jacksonville State431.00.01
Wk 4W 45-17vs Maine321.00.00
Wk 5L 10-35@ James Madison110.00.00
Wk 7L 35-38vs Southern Miss751.00.00Season-high 7 tackles
Wk 8W 41-24vs Georgia State630.00.00
Wk 9L 24-34@ Arkansas State541.00.00
Wk 11W 25-23@ App State210.00.01
Wk 12W 45-40vs Coastal Carolina640.00.00
Wk 13L 10-45vs Old Dominion420.00.00
Wk 14W 24-19@ Marshall431.50.00
BowlW 29-10@ App State321.00.020
Total45306.50.023
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2025Georgia Southern7-6HC: Clay Helton · Balanced
SeasonTeam
2025Georgia Southern45306.50.032--
Career1 loaded season45306.50.032--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Disruption stats

TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.

Coverage splash

Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

INT 2 0 pick-six TD | #114/869 (87th pct)
Pass breakups 3 Coverage disruption | #521/2184 (76th pct)
QB pressures 0 Quarterback hurries
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Defense Total tackles 45 #729/4942 85th pct Volumevs FBS DEF
Defense TFL 6.5 #340/4972 93rd pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Sacks 0.0 #1762/4972 65th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Interceptions 2 #114/869 87th pct Takeawaysvs FBS DEF
Defense Pass breakups 3 #521/2184 76th pct Coveragevs FBS DEF
Defense Solo tackles 30 #515/4584 89th pct Volumevs FBS DEF

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

The Thorpe award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 12 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Home6g5.00.50.00.2
Road6g2.50.60.00.3

Win vs Loss

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Wins7g4.00.60.00.3
Losses5g3.40.40.00.2

First half vs Second half

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Weeks 1-76g3.00.70.00.3
Weeks 8+6g4.50.40.00.2

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the DB cohort

62Solid starter
7 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: tackles for loss (87th). Strength: solo tackles (81st). Concern: qb hurries (22nd).

Tackles for loss#340 / 2975 · 87th pct
6.5defe
Solo tackles#515 / 2975 · 82nd pct
30defe
Passes defended#517 / 2975 · 78th pct
3defe
Tackles#729 / 2975 · 75th pct
45defe
Interceptions#114 / 817 · 75th pct
2inte
Sacks#1575 / 2975 · 24th pct
0.0defe
QB hurries#1662 / 2975 · 22nd pct
0defe

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · DB · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 7 metrics
Dorrian SmithGeorgia SouthernTy BenefieldBoise State· 83% simTahj Ra-ElPurdue· 81% simAhmaad MosesSMU· 79% sim
Tackles for loss
87
Smith
94
Benefield
56
Ra-El
83
Moses
Solo tackles
82
Smith
100
Benefield
100
Ra-El
98
Moses
Passes defended
78
Smith
78
Benefield
91
Ra-El
78
Moses
Tackles
75
Smith
99
Benefield
99
Ra-El
99
Moses
Interceptions
75
Smith
75
Benefield
98
Moses
Sacks
24
Smith
24
Benefield
24
Ra-El
63
Moses
QB hurries
22
Smith
55
Benefield
22
Ra-El
22
Moses

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Hybrid Nickel

Moves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB.

S

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Jonathan Jean’s 2025 season.

Jonathan Jean

87%match

East Carolina · 2025

#2

Jordan Wright

UConn · 2024

86%
#3

O.J. Burroughs

Kansas · 2022

86%
#4

Jordan Clark

Arizona State · 2022

83%
#5

T.J. Peavy

Eastern Michigan · 2022

81%

Matches Jonathan on

Class year
Height
PD rate

Not enough data yet for this comparison.

As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Syrus Dumas's sophomore season at New Mexico State (2022).

Syrus Dumas

96%match

New Mexico State · 2022

#2

Jarren Hampton

Ohio · 2021

93%
#3

O.J. Burroughs

Kansas · 2022

91%
#4

Jordan Wright

UConn · 2024

88%
#5

Cedric Stone

Liberty · 2021

88%

Matches Syrus on

Class year
Height
PD rate

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Clay Helton

Pass share

48.9%

429 pass / 448 run

Plays / game

67.5

13 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

8.6%

325 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Balanced.

Coaching Lineage · 2025

1 coach
2025
Clay Helton
Georgia Southern

Played his entire career under Clay Helton.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownFort Valley, GA
Height5'10"
Weight185 lb
Class4
PositionDB
Jersey23

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Georgia Southern DB4 #14049 #13951 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | Sun Belt

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Georgia Southern Sun Belt DB 4 No. 23 | 5-10 | 185 lb | Fort Valley, GA
2024 Georgia Southern Sun Belt DB 4 No. 23 | 5-10 | 185 lb | Fort Valley, GA