Emmanuel Michel

Senior fullback for Air Force. 2023: 935 rushing yards, 11 rushing TD.

FB · Air Force · Sr. · #4

5′10″ · 210 lb · Lawrenceville, GA

CFB Index 50 · #117 of 310 RBsHigh confidenceAll-ConferenceAir Force 2023 alumnus

The story

4 fullback for Air Force. 2023: 935 rushing yards, 11 rushing TD.

Signed as a 2-star recruit to Archer in 2019.

His career, year by year

Recruiting

2★

RB recruit

No. 3231 nationally · Signed with Archer

No college snaps yet.

His full recruiting profile

How it ended

Three seasons at Air Force, 1,614 rushing yards — his college career is complete.

His career

Nobody recruited him. He earned the honors anyway.

2019

Recruited2-star out of Archer

202310 games

All-Mountain Westsecond

Career arc

Recruit

★★

#3231 national

CFB

College

Air Force

2021–2023

NFL

NFL Draft

—

Not drafted

Trophy case · Confirmed honors

What the selectors said

3 honors · 1 category

🎖

ALL-MOUNTAIN WEST · 2ND TEAM

All-Mountain West 2nd team (2023)

Coaching lineage · 2021–2023

1 coach

2021–2023

Troy Calhoun

Air Force

Played his entire career under Troy Calhoun.

2023 snapshot

Season context · Team result + system

3 seasons under Troy Calhoun — 29-10 over that span.

2021Air Force10-3HC: Troy Calhoun · Run-heavy, fast tempo

2022Air Force10-3HC: Troy Calhoun · Run-heavy

2023Air Force9-4HC: Troy Calhoun · Run-heavy, slow tempo

Where this profile ranks vs the FB cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

50Rotational starter #117 of 310?

High confidence11 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: carries (92nd percentile). Strength: rush tds (89th percentile). Concern: explosive rate (11th percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

TD rate#118 / 426 · 72nd pct

6.3%

Success rate#209 / 426 · 51st pct

44.4%

EPA / carry#249 / 426 · 42nd pct

0.13

Yards / carry#336 / 426 · 21st pct

4.5

Explosive rate#381 / 426 · 11th pct

2.8%

Box-score rates (6)

Carries#28 / 333 · 92nd pct

200

Rush TDs#34 / 333 · 89th pct

Rush yards#47 / 333 · 86th pct

935

Long run#114 / 333 · 65th pct

Yards / carry#191 / 333 · 41st pct

4.7

Fumbles lost#195 / 207 · 4th pct

Season trend

EPA / carry— first qualifying season

Success rate— first qualifying season

Explosive rate— first qualifying season

Yards / carry— first qualifying season

TD rate— first qualifying season

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Splits & context

Splits · Per-game

2023 season · 10 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	YPC	TD/g
Home5g	104	4.6	1.4
Road5g	82.8	4.6	0.8

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	YPC	TD/g
Weeks 1-76g	114	4.9	1.7
Weeks 8+4g	62.5	4.1	0.2

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2026 season

Head Coach

Troy Calhoun

Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.

Awards

Player standing · 2023

All-Conference

Picked for an all-conference team by at least one selector.

Recognition

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Production · CFB Index Score

50 · #117 of 310 RBs

Two-star recruit. Now #117 at the position.

Signature game

SIGNATURE GAME · Week 17 · 2023

W 31–21

vs James Madison

203 rush yds (35 car) · 2 TD

With L. Freer — 47 AVG · 1 IN 20 · 53 LONG · Z. Larrier — 45 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT · QBR 52.9 · 26 rush yds (9 car) · 1 TD

Signature plays

Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|

The plays that mattered most

fact

Week 9 · Colorado State · 3&5 · Q3 · EPA +4.26Emmanuel Michel run for 53 yds to the CSU 22 for a 1ST down
Week 1 · James Madison · 1&10 · Q1 · EPA +3.79Emmanuel Michel run for 54 yds to the JMU 32 for a 1ST down
Week 4 · San José State · 4&1 · Q4 · EPA +2.79Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd for a TD (Reagan Tubbs KICK)
Week 4 · San José State · 3&3 · Q2 · EPA +2.64Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds for a TD (Reagan Tubbs KICK)
Week 3 · Utah State · 3&2 · Q3 · EPA +2.54Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)
Week 1 · James Madison · 3&1 · Q1 · EPA +2.45Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)
Week 9 · Colorado State · 2&5 · Q4 · EPA +2.44Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)
Week 4 · San José State · 3&5 · Q2 · EPA +2.43Emmanuel Michel run for 11 yds to the SJSU 46 for a 1ST down
Week 4 · San José State · 2&3 · Q2 · EPA +2.36Emmanuel Michel run for 17 yds for a TD (Reagan Tubbs KICK)
Week 2 · Sam Houston · 1&10 · Q3 · EPA -2.24Emmanuel Michel run for 22 yds to the SHSU 38 Emmanuel Michel fumbled, recovered by SHSU Dakerric Hobbs

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2023 season · 10 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG	Note
Wk 2	W 13-3@ Sam Houston	8	53	6.6	0	22
Wk 3	W 39-21vs Utah State	28	106	3.8	3	8	3 rushing TDs
Wk 4	W 45-20@ San José State	33	148	4.5	3	17	3 rushing TDs
Wk 5	W 49-10vs San Diego State	18	78	4.3	2	8
Wk 7	W 34-27vs Wyoming	22	97	4.4	0	12
Wk 8	W 17-6@ Navy	22	69	3.1	0	7
Wk 9	W 30-13@ Colorado State	20	130	6.5	1	53
Wk 10	L 3-23vs Army	8	37	4.6	0	13
Wk 13	L 19-27@ Boise State	6	14	2.3	0	4
Bowl	W 31-21vs James Madison	35	203	5.8	2	54
Total		200	935	4.6	11	54

How he plays

Play style

Plays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension.

CFB Index positional classification

Boom vs consistent · carry-yardage shape

Steady, not spectacular

~ our read

177Carries

841Yards

21.0%Top-5 share

5.1%Stuffed rate

Just 21.0% of his season rushing yards came on his 5 best carries — remarkably even — and he's stuffed on 5.1% of his carries. 6 carries for 14 yds vs Boise State; 35 for 203 vs James Madison.

Closer · Q4-with-lead carry share

The closer

~ our read

25.5%Carry share

26.8%Q4-lead share

70.6%In competitive games

25.5% of carries overall (175/685) → 26.8% of Q4-with-lead carries (34/127) — 70.6% of those in competitive (≤16-pt) games.

Short-yardage / goal-line · enumeration

Who gets the tough yard

fact

10/173rd/4th & short

17/40Inside-5 share