CFB Zeitgeist Score
52
Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by completion % at the 87th percentile.
Garrett Nussmeier
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
1,927 PASS YDS · 12 PASS TD · -57 RUSH YDS
Where He Ended Up · NFL
Kansas City2026 NFL rookie season
#249Rd 7 · Pick 33
Kansas City2026 NFL rookie season
QB · LSU · SEC
Garrett Nussmeier
- 4
- #18
- 6-1 | 205 lb
- Lake Charles, LA
Heisman Heat
#20
1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
1%
TOP QB AWARD
Davey O'Brien
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 3 · RecognizedR11 · National watch / fringe AA
National watch / fringe All-America. Knocking on the All-America door.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
In Their Words
119 windows · 2025 fan posts
garrett×1176.2lsu×35.9brian×196.0kelly×112.0injury×27.0better×18.2passing×15.4
“Here's the latest on LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier:”
bluesky_curated · fan post, verbatim
Career arc · Season-by-season Standing
5 seasons on the ladder
2021
LSU · QB
—
2022
LSU · QB
—
2023
LSU · QB
—
2024
LSU · QB
R08 · Watch-list name
Recognized
★
2025
LSU · QB
R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team
Recognized
NFL Draft 2026 · Rd 7, Pick 33 · #249 overall · Kansas City
Development Trajectory · passing yards
2021–2025+486%
Up 486% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
LSU
NFL
NFL Draft
R7 · #249
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 4-star | 0.9624 | No. 84 recruit | HighSchool | LSU |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in passing yards (1927).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★★☆
to LSU
Composite
0.9624
#84 national
NFL Draft
2026 · Rd 7, Pick 33
#249 overall · Kansas City
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Garrett Nussmeier
Fan sentiment · Season 2025 conversation window
Belief Meter
57
Quietly Bullish
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=78
- Rivals · n=4
- National · n=52
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Garrett Nussmeier
Obsession score 3
Rival mentions 4
Weeks on radar 2
Peak moment Week 0 · 2 mentions
Grudging respect 0% Neutral 100% Mockery 0%
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Completion %
0.7%
pct
P4 + Notre Dame QBs, min 150 attempts
National rank #12 of 72
Percentile vs P4 + Notre Dame QBs, min 150 attempts 84th
Why it matters
#12 of 72 P4 + Notre Dame QBs at 0.7% completion rate (288 attempts).
Vs cohort
This player 0.7% (84th)
HIGH · n=288 cohort 72
- Also strong
- WEPA per dropback#44 / 58
- TD : INT ratio#34 / 72
- Yards per attempt#61 / 72
Signature Moment
Week 4 vs SE Louisiana — 273 completion_pct
Result W 56-10
The week the volume broke through — put up 273 yds vs SE Louisiana.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the passing totals stand
Through 9g
1,927Pass yards
12Pass TDs
5INT
Per game
214.1Pass yards
1Pass TDs
1INT
Projected (13g)
2,783Pass yards
17Pass TDs
7INT
To hit 3,000-yard season (currently 1,927): needs 268.2/game over remaining 4.
To hit 4,000-yard season (currently 1,927): needs 518.2/game over remaining 4.
To hit 25 passing TDs (currently 12): needs 3.2/game over remaining 4.
To hit 30 passing TDs (currently 12): needs 4.5/game over remaining 4.
To hit 35 passing TDs (currently 12): needs 5.8/game over remaining 4.
Why the pedigree actually matters here
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Garrett Nussmeier was a real recruiting acquisition, not an out-of-nowhere name, and that matters when a Heisman case starts to form. The card shows a 4-star profile with a No. 84 recruit national ranking lane, which helps explain why voters and media were ready to notice fast once the production showed up.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
QB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Steady volume | Efficient | Pocket-leaning against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Passing Efficiency
CMP
194 80th
ATT
288 79th
CMP%
67.4% 78th
Y/A
6.7 45th
Passing Production
YDS
1,927 75th
TD
12 79th
INT
5 32nd
Rushing
CAR
29 55th
YDS
-57 3rd
YPC
-2.0 7th
TD
1 63rd
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 9 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 17-10@ Clemson | 28/38 | 232 | 1 | 0 | 6.1 | -1.0 | |
| Wk 2 | W 23-7vs Louisiana Tech | 26/41 | 237 | 1 | 1 | 5.8 | 64.6 | |
| Wk 3 | W 20-10vs Florida | 15/27 | 220 | 1 | 1 | 8.1 | 73.3 | |
| Wk 4 | W 56-10vs SE Louisiana | 25/31 | 273 | 3 | 0 | 8.8 | 71.8 | Season-high 273 yds |
| Wk 5 | L 19-24@ Ole Miss | 21/34 | 197 | 1 | 1 | 5.8 | 75.3 | |
| Wk 7 | W 20-10vs South Carolina | 20/33 | 254 | 2 | 2 | 7.7 | 75.0 | |
| Wk 8 | L 24-31@ Vanderbilt | 19/28 | 225 | 2 | 0 | 8.0 | 67.5 | |
| Wk 9 | L 25-49vs Texas A&M | 22/35 | 168 | 1 | 0 | 4.8 | 53.3 | |
| Wk 11 | L 9-20@ Alabama | 18/21 | 121 | 0 | 0 | 5.8 | 79.5 | |
| Total | 194/288 | 1927 | 12 | 5 | 6.8 | 62.1 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2021LSU6-6HC: Ed Orgeron · Balanced
2022LSU10-4HC: Brian Kelly · Balanced
2023LSU10-3HC: Brian Kelly · Balanced
2024LSU9-4HC: Brian Kelly · Pass-leaning, fast tempo
2025LSU7-6HC: Brian Kelly · Balanced, slow tempo
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.
How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Passing yards | 1,927 | #96/382 | 75th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Pass TD | 12 | #88/407 | 79th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completions | 194 | #76/383 | 80th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completion % | 67.4% | #87/383 | 78th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Yards / attempt | 6.7 | #210/382 | 45th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | -57 | #397/408 | 3rd pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Value | Passing WEPA | +0.27 | #99/200 | 51st pct | Opponent-adjusted passing value | 274 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Role share | 55.0% | #42/428 | 90th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Attempts | 288 | #88/407 | 79th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Interceptions | 5 | #276/407 | 32nd pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Carries | 29 | #183/408 | 55th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 26 | #127/391 | 68th pct | Metricvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 1 | #151/408 | 63rd pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | -2.0 | #379/407 | 7th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Pass share | 90.3% | #56/428 | 87th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 67.3% | #61/428 | 86th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 66.1% | #63/428 | 86th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 56.6% | #35/428 | 92nd pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 48.6% | #44/428 | 90th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 48.5% | #43/428 | 90th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | Rush share | 6.0% | #250/428 | 42nd pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 0 | #1/258 | 100th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
ALL-CONF HM
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
ALL-CONF HM · Rung 9 of 16
Why he’s here
All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started.
What moves him up
A best-at-position run lifts to 1st team.
What moves him down
A back-end conference finish drops out of the honor list.
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 9 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home5g | 230 | 1.6 | 7.0 | 0.8 |
| Road4g | 194 | 1.0 | 6.4 | 0.2 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins5g | 243 | 1.6 | 7.3 | 0.8 |
| Losses4g | 178 | 1.0 | 6.1 | 0.2 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 236 | 1.5 | 7.0 | 0.8 |
| Weeks 8+3g | 171 | 1.0 | 6.2 | 0.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
52Mid-pack
Elite: fumbles lost (91st). Strength: completion % (87th). Concern: rush yards (6th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Pass Profile · Completion depth (PBP)
Where the throws are landing
Short
0–9 yds54%of completions
88 comp5.4 yds avg5 TD
Middle
10–19 yds34%of completions
56 comp13.7 yds avg1 TD
Deep
20+ yds12%of completions
19 comp32.4 yds avg4 TD
Overall 64.2% completion on 254 attempts · 19 deep completions averaging 32.4 yds.
Advanced Savant · QB · 2024
Percentile Card
Reads as a mid-tier profile across the board..
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_passing0.27Low (p25–p50) (n=94)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Garrett NussmeierLSUDrake LindseyMinnesota· 80% simNick VattiatoMiddle Tennessee· 76% simJalen KitnaUAB· 76% sim
Fumbles lost
Completion %
Interceptions
Pass TDs
Pass yards
Yards / att
Rush TDs
Rush yards
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Pocket Surgeon
High-percentage passer who protects the ball. Loses the matchup on improvisation.
QB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Miller Moss’s 2024 season.
Miller Moss
76%match
All-Big Ten
#2
Dylan Lonergan
All-ACC
73%
#3
Miller Moss
72%
#4
Jarret Doege
67%
#5
Tommy DeVito
67%
Matches Miller on
Rush yards / carry
Total pass EPA (college ability)
Completion %
Through 5 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Miller Moss’s path through Louisville.
Miller Moss
85%match
All-Big Ten
#2
Anthony Brown
84%
#3
Zac Thomas
All-Sun Belt
84%
#4
Brady Cook
83%
#5
Sean Clifford
NFL Rd 5
82%
Matches Miller on
Recruiting rating
Completion %
Yards per attempt
As a graduate, his production profile tracks closest to Miller Moss's graduate season at Louisville (2025).
Miller Moss
71%match
All-Big Ten
#2
Preston Stone
All-Big Ten
50%
#3
Cade McNamara
All-Big Ten
49%
#4
Blake Shapen
47%
#5
Hudson Card
45%
Matches Miller on
Total pass EPA (college ability)
Weight
Height
Differs from Miller on
EPA / dropback (adj) (higher)
Completion % (higher)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Brian Kelly
Pass share
55.0%
443 pass / 363 run
Plays / game
62.0
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
6.8%
365 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced, slow tempo.
Coaching Lineage · 2021–2025
2 coaches2021
Ed Orgeron
LSU
2022era →
Brian Kelly
LSU
2023
Brian Kelly
LSU
2024
Brian Kelly
LSU
2025
Brian Kelly
LSU
Coaching transition mid-career: Ed Orgeron → Brian Kelly. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownLake Charles, LA
Height6'1"
Weight205 lb
Class4
PositionQB
Jersey18
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamLSU
ConferenceSEC
Joined2025
Career arc5 season(s)
Trophy Case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
🎖
ALL-CONFERENCE
All-Conf mention (2025)
All-SEC
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
1 all-conference honor
Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | All-SEC | all_conference | LSU | SEC | QB |
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | LSU | QB4 | #20 | #21 | 1.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | SEC |
| 2023 | LSU | QB4 | #80 | #48 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | SEC |
| 2022 | LSU | QB4 | #225 | #201 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | SEC |
| 2021 | LSU | QB4 | #778 | #709 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | SEC |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | LSU | SEC | QB | 4 | No. 18 | 6-1 | 205 lb | Lake Charles, LA |
| 2024 | LSU | SEC | QB | 4 | No. 18 | 6-1 | 205 lb | Lake Charles, LA |
| 2023 | LSU | SEC | QB | 4 | No. 18 | 6-1 | 205 lb | Lake Charles, LA |
| 2022 | LSU | SEC | QB | 4 | No. 18 | 6-1 | 205 lb | Lake Charles, LA |
| 2021 | LSU | SEC | QB | 4 | No. 18 | 6-1 | 205 lb | Lake Charles, LA |