CFB Zeitgeist QB Score
Awaiting
Holton Ahlers
Limited signal — not enough coverage for a story yet.
QB · EAST CAROLINA · AMERICAN ATHLETIC
Holton Ahlers
- 4
- #12
- 6-4 | 230 lb
- Greenville, NC
Heisman Heat
#71
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP QB AWARD
Davey O'Brien
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 0 · Not on teamR01 · Scout team / redshirt
Scout team / redshirt. Developing behind the depth chart.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · passing yards
2021–2022+19%
Modest growth (19%) across the multi-season window.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
East Carolina
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 3-star | 0.8755 | No. 543 recruit | HighSchool | East Carolina |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2022 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 20Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to East Carolina
Composite
0.8755
#543 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Holton Ahlers
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Holton Ahlers
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Scenario Explorer
Available for players with a qualifying signature metric (passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, sacks, etc.). The slider projects how a season finishes if the current pace holds.
Why this is a two-channel quarterback case
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
The unusual part of Holton Ahlers's case is that the production comes in two channels, not one. For East Carolina, he has 3,708 passing yards and 28 touchdown passes, but he also adds 182 rushing yards and 6 rushing scores. That kind of dual-threat load tends to create a more resilient Heisman case because the offense can tilt the game in multiple ways.
2022 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
QB season snapshot
2022 season snapshot | final
2022 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
High-volume passer | Efficient | Dual-threat against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.
2022 Season · Final
2022 season snapshot | final
Passing Efficiency
CMP
315 98th
ATT
469 98th
CMP%
67.2% 76th
Y/A
7.9 74th
Passing Production
YDS
3,708 99th
TD
28 97th
INT
5 32nd
Rushing
CAR
72 79th
YDS
182 77th
YPC
2.5 46th
TD
6 88th
Game Log
Week-by-week box
No per-game rows for this season yet — the table fills in as box scores arrive.
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2021East Carolina7-5HC: Mike Houston · Balanced, fast tempo
2022East Carolina8-5HC: Mike Houston · Balanced
| Season | Team | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | East Carolina | 315 | 469 | 67.2% | 3,708 | 7.9 | 28 | 5 | 151.1 | -- | -- |
| 2021 | East Carolina | 256 | 414 | 61.8% | 3,126 | 7.6 | 18 | 10 | 134.8 | -- | -- |
| Career | 2 loaded seasons | 571 | 883 | 64.7% | 6,834 | 7.7 | 46 | 15 | 143.5 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | East Carolina | 72 | 182 | 2.5 | 6 | -- |
| 2021 | East Carolina | 116 | 204 | 1.8 | 6 | -- |
| Career | 2 loaded seasons | 188 | 386 | 2.1 | 12 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.
How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Passing yards | 3,708 | #6/382 | 99th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Pass TD | 28 | #12/407 | 97th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completions | 315 | #7/383 | 98th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completion % | 67.2% | #93/383 | 76th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Yards / attempt | 7.9 | #99/382 | 74th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 182 | #93/408 | 77th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Value | Passing WEPA | +0.48 | #6/200 | 98th pct | Opponent-adjusted passing value | 426 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Role share | 58.1% | #22/428 | 95th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Attempts | 469 | #9/407 | 98th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Interceptions | 5 | #276/407 | 32nd pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Carries | 72 | #88/408 | 79th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 37 | #80/391 | 80th pct | Metricvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 6 | #48/408 | 88th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 2.5 | #222/407 | 46th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Pass share | 97.3% | #7/428 | 99th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 79.3% | #5/428 | 99th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 77.4% | #12/428 | 97th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 55.6% | #43/428 | 90th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 48.8% | #43/428 | 90th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 48.0% | #48/428 | 89th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | Rush share | 18.8% | #72/428 | 83rd pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.40 | #8/140 | 95th pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 85 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 0 | #1/258 | 100th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits
Per-game splits
Splits fill in once box scores from at least three games land for this season.
Advanced Savant · QB · 2022
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Blake Harrell
Pass share
44.5%
440 pass / 548 run
Plays / game
76.0
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
4.7%
343 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning, fast tempo.
Coaching Lineage · 2021–2022
1 coach2021
Mike Houston
East Carolina
2022
Mike Houston
East Carolina
Played his entire career under Mike Houston.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownGreenville, NC
Height6'4"
Weight230 lb
Class4
PositionQB
Jersey12
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamEast Carolina
ConferenceAmerican Athletic
Joined2022
Career arc2 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | East Carolina | QB4 | #71 | #119 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | American Athletic |
| 2021 | East Carolina | QB4 | #129 | #202 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | American Athletic |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | East Carolina | American Athletic | QB | 4 | No. 12 | 6-4 | 230 lb | Greenville, NC |
| 2021 | East Carolina | American Athletic | QB | 4 | No. 12 | 6-4 | 230 lb | Greenville, NC |