cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Mason Ellis /Kansas

Mason Ellis

S · Kansas · Jr · #23

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

18 TACKLES · 0 SACKS

2026 RETURNINGReturning to Kansas for 2026

2026 Outlook

Returning to Kansas for 2026

2026 Depth chart

Projected starter

Safety · Kansas

Returning around him

  • 41% of 2024 offensive production back (Moderate turnover)
  • 2 Kansas players drafted to NFL
  • Transfer portal: +5 net (31 in / 26 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

Kansas · Last season: 5-7 · Talent rank #48 · 2026 recruiting class #72

S · KANSAS · BIG 12

Mason Ellis

  • 3
  • #23
  • 6-2 | 200 lb
  • Mulvane, KS

CFB Zeitgeist Score

26

Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by tackles for loss at the 28th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#12835

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP DB AWARD

Jim Thorpe

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 1 · 2-deep

R04 · Rotational

Rotational. Earning real snaps in the rotation.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★
#2079 national
CFB
College
Kansas
2024–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionS
Class3
Jersey23
Measurements6-2 | 200 lb
HometownMulvane, KS
Primary teamKansas

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 2079 recruit
Composite rating 0.8044 HighSchool
Signed with Kansas 2022
Origin Mulvane Mulvane, KS, USA
Class Profile Context
2022 3-star | 0.8044 No. 2079 recruit | HighSchool | Kansas

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 0 No portal entry on file
Latest destination -- --
Transfer stars -- CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility -- Transfer date TBD
Season Move Context
No transfer portal moves on file for this player.

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#12835Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#13024Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to Kansas

Composite

0.8044

#2079 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Mason Ellis

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Mason Ellis

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the defensive totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 6g
18Tackles
1Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Per game
3Tackles
0.2Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Projected (13g)
39Tackles
2.2Tackles for loss
0Sacks

To hit 80-tackle season (currently 18): needs 8.9/game over remaining 7.

To hit 100-tackle season (currently 18): needs 11.7/game over remaining 7.

To hit 6-sack season (currently 0): needs 0.9/game over remaining 7.

To hit 10-sack season (currently 0): needs 1.4/game over remaining 7.

Why this is a rare defensive case

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Mason Ellis is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Kansas's defense, with 0.0 sacks, 1.0 tackles for loss, and -- interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.

Current place #12835 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load -- Role share still loading
Profile quirk Defensive rarity 0.0 sacks | 1.0 TFL

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

DEF season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Total tackles 18 12 solo | #2161/4942 (56th pct)
TFL 1.0 Backfield disruption | #2051/4972 (59th pct)
Sacks 0.0 Pass-rush finish | #1762/4972 (65th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Defensive contributor against FBS defenders.

Balanced profile

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Tackling & Disruption

TOT
18 56th
SOLO
12 62nd
TFL
1.0 59th
SACK
0.0 65th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 6 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppTKLSOLOTFLSACKINTPDNote
Wk 1W 31-7vs Fresno State221.00.00
Wk 1W 46-7vs Wagner320.00.00
Wk 2L 31-42@ Missouri830.00.00Season-high 8 tackles
Wk 9L 17-42vs Kansas State110.00.00
Wk 10W 38-21vs Oklahoma State110.00.00
Wk 14L 21-31vs Utah330.00.00
Total18121.00.00
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2024Kansas5-7HC: Lance Leipold · Run-leaning
2025Kansas5-7HC: Lance Leipold · Run-leaning
SeasonTeam
2025Kansas18121.00.0------
2024Kansas750.00.0------
Career2 loaded seasons25171.00.0------
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Disruption stats

TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.

Coverage splash

Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

INT -- -- pick-six TD
Pass breakups 0 Coverage disruption
QB pressures 0 Quarterback hurries
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Defense Total tackles 18 #2161/4942 56th pct Volumevs FBS DEF
Defense TFL 1.0 #2051/4972 59th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Sacks 0.0 #1762/4972 65th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Solo tackles 12 #1735/4584 62nd pct Volumevs FBS DEF

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

The Thorpe award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 6 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Home5g2.00.20.00.0
Road1g8.00.00.00.0

Win vs Loss

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Wins3g2.00.30.00.0
Losses3g4.00.00.00.0

First half vs Second half

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Weeks 1-73g4.30.30.00.0
Weeks 8+3g1.70.00.00.0

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the S cohort

26Below cohort
6 metrics · season cumulative

Concern: passes defended (17th).

Solo tackles#1735 / 2975 · 40th pct
12defe
Tackles for loss#1936 / 2975 · 28th pct
1.0defe
Tackles#2161 / 2975 · 26th pct
18defe
Sacks#1575 / 2975 · 24th pct
0.0defe
QB hurries#1662 / 2975 · 22nd pct
0defe
Passes defended#1916 / 2975 · 18th pct
0defe

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · S · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 6 metrics
Mason EllisKansasTyler MartinMassachusetts· 57% simJonJon VaughnsUCLA· 51% simTahj Ra-ElPurdue· 50% sim
Solo tackles
40
Ellis
87
Martin
96
Vaughns
100
Ra-El
Tackles for loss
28
Ellis
63
Martin
85
Vaughns
56
Ra-El
Tackles
26
Ellis
98
Martin
99
Vaughns
99
Ra-El
Sacks
24
Ellis
24
Martin
63
Vaughns
24
Ra-El
QB hurries
22
Ellis
22
Martin
22
Vaughns
22
Ra-El
Passes defended
18
Ellis
67
Martin
48
Vaughns
91
Ra-El

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Hybrid Nickel

Moves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB.

S

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Josh Minkins’s 2021 season.

Josh Minkins

94%match

Louisville · 2021

#2

Josh Minkins

Louisville · 2023

93%
#3

Donovan McMillon

Florida · 2022

93%
#4

Jalon Ferrell

Massachusetts · 2023

91%
#5

Talan Alfrey

BYU · 2023

91%

Matches Josh on

PD rate
Height
Weight

Not enough data yet for this comparison.

As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Jourdan Thomas's sophomore season at Tennessee (2023).

Jourdan Thomas

97%match

Tennessee · 2023

#2

Jacobe Johnson

Oklahoma · 2024

95%
#3

Ja'len Johnson

Louisiana · 2021

93%
#4

Nate Ritchie

Utah · 2023

92%
#5

Tristan Driggers

UL Monroe · 2023

88%

Matches Jourdan on

Class year
Height
PD rate

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Lance Leipold

Pass share

45.1%

344 pass / 419 run

Plays / game

63.6

12 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

6.1%

293 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Run-leaning.

Coaching Lineage · 2024–2025

1 coach
2024
Lance Leipold
Kansas
2025
Lance Leipold
Kansas

Played his entire career under Lance Leipold.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownMulvane, KS
Height6'2"
Weight200 lb
Class3
PositionS
Jersey23

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Kansas S3 #12835 #13024 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | Big 12
2023 Kansas S3 #11552 #11324 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | Big 12
2022 Kansas S3 #13330 #13256 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | Big 12

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Kansas Big 12 S 3 No. 23 | 6-2 | 200 lb | Mulvane, KS
2024 Kansas Big 12 S 3 No. 23 | 6-2 | 200 lb | Mulvane, KS
2023 Kansas Big 12 S 3 No. 23 | 6-2 | 200 lb | Mulvane, KS
2022 Kansas Big 12 S 3 No. 23 | 6-2 | 200 lb | Mulvane, KS