cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Matt Jones /Baylor

Matt Jones

LB · Baylor · Sr · #2

Limited signal — not enough coverage for a story yet.

CAREER COMPLETEBaylor 2024 — college career complete

LB · BAYLOR · BIG 12

Matt Jones

  • 4
  • #2
  • 6-4 | 246 lb
  • Hubbard, OH

CFB Zeitgeist LB Score

Awaiting

Heisman Heat

#7530

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP LB AWARD

Butkus

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 1 · 2-deep

R02 · Deep reserve

Deep reserve. In the program, working up the two-deep.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★
#493 national
CFB
College
Baylor
2021–2024
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionLB
Class4
Jersey2
Measurements6-4 | 246 lb
HometownHubbard, OH
Primary teamBaylor

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 493 recruit
Composite rating 0.8736 HighSchool
Signed with West Virginia 2015
Origin Hubbard Hubbard, OH, USA
Class Profile Context
2015 3-star | 0.8736 No. 493 recruit | HighSchool | West Virginia

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 0 No portal entry on file
Latest destination -- --
Transfer stars -- CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility -- Transfer date TBD
Season Move Context
No transfer portal moves on file for this player.

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#7530Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#8288Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to West Virginia

Composite

0.8736

#493 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Matt Jones

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Matt Jones

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Scenario Explorer

Available for players with a qualifying signature metric (passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, sacks, etc.). The slider projects how a season finishes if the current pace holds.

Why this is a rare defensive case

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Matt Jones is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Baylor's defense, with 4.0 sacks, 9.0 tackles for loss, and -- interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.

Current place #7530 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load -- Role share still loading
Profile quirk Defensive rarity 4.0 sacks | 9.0 TFL

2024 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

DEF season snapshot

2024 season snapshot | final

2024 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Total tackles 101 67 solo | #48/4942 (99th pct)
TFL 9.0 Backfield disruption | #142/4972 (97th pct)
Sacks 4.0 Pass-rush finish | #169/4972 (97th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

High-disruption defender | Coverage splash | High-volume tackler against FBS defenders.

High-disruption defenderCoverage splashHigh-volume tackler

2024 Season · Final

2024 season snapshot | final

Tackling & Disruption

TOT
101 99th
SOLO
67 100th
TFL
9.0 97th
SACK
4.0 97th
QBH
5 90th

Coverage & Takeaways

PD
6 93rd

Game Log

Week-by-week box

No per-game rows for this season yet — the table fills in as box scores arrive.

Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2021Baylor11-2HC: Dave Aranda · Run-heavy
2022Baylor6-7HC: Dave Aranda · Run-leaning
2023Baylor3-9HC: Dave Aranda · Balanced
2024Baylor8-5HC: Dave Aranda · Run-leaning
SeasonTeam
2024Baylor101679.04.06----
2023Baylor845612.54.05----
2022Baylor54344.02.54----
2021Baylor52297.52.021--
Career4 loaded seasons29118633.012.5171--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Disruption stats

TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.

Coverage splash

Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

INT -- -- pick-six TD
Pass breakups 6 Coverage disruption | #144/2184 (93rd pct)
QB pressures 5 Quarterback hurries | #188/1878 (90th pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Defense Total tackles 101 #48/4942 99th pct Volumevs FBS DEF
Defense TFL 9.0 #142/4972 97th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Sacks 4.0 #169/4972 97th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Pass breakups 6 #144/2184 93rd pct Coveragevs FBS DEF
Defense QB hurries 5 #188/1878 90th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Solo tackles 67 #3/4584 100th pct Volumevs FBS DEF
Defense Fumbles recovered 2 #13/736 98th pct Takeawaysvs FBS DEF
Ball Security Fumbles lost 0 #1/773 100th pct Turnoversvs FBS DEF

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

The Butkus award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.

Splits

Per-game splits

Splits fill in once box scores from at least three games land for this season.

Box-score Savant card waits for a season-stat snapshot above the cohort floor. Returns once enough box-score volume lands.

Advanced Savant · LB · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator returns once this player clears the Savant metric floor (4+ scored bars).
DNA Match awaiting data — similarity scores compute once season stats clear the volume gate for this position cohort.

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Dave Aranda

Pass share

55.5%

510 pass / 409 run

Plays / game

76.6

12 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

5.0%

417 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Pass-leaning, fast tempo.

Coaching Lineage · 2021–2024

1 coach
2021
Dave Aranda
Baylor
2022
Dave Aranda
Baylor
2023
Dave Aranda
Baylor
2024
Dave Aranda
Baylor

Played his entire career under Dave Aranda.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownHubbard, OH
Height6'4"
Weight246 lb
Class4
PositionLB
Jersey2

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Baylor LB4 #7530 #8288 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | Big 12
2023 Baylor LB4 #10759 #11488 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | Big 12
2022 Baylor LB4 #8236 #8772 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | Big 12
2021 Baylor LB4 #3842 #4139 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | Big 12

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2024 Baylor Big 12 LB 4 No. 2 | 6-4 | 246 lb | Hubbard, OH
2023 Baylor Big 12 LB 4 No. 2 | 6-4 | 246 lb | Hubbard, OH
2022 Baylor Big 12 LB 4 No. 2 | 6-4 | 246 lb | Hubbard, OH
2021 Baylor Big 12 LB 4 No. 2 | 6-4 | 246 lb | Hubbard, OH