cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Matthew Durrance /Washington State

Matthew Durrance

S · Washington State · Sr · #23

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

58 TACKLES · 0 SACKS

2026 RETURNINGReturning to Washington State for 2026

2026 Outlook

Returning to Washington State for 2026

2026 Depth chart

Projected starter

Safety · Washington State

Returning around him

  • 25% of 2024 offensive production back (Heavy turnover)
  • Transfer portal: -13 net (28 in / 41 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

Washington State · Last season: 7-6 · Talent rank #95 · 2026 recruiting class #71

S · WASHINGTON STATE · PAC-12

Matthew Durrance

  • 4
  • #23
  • 6-2 | 213 lb
  • Lutz, FL

CFB Zeitgeist Score

48

Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by passes defended at the 67th percentile.

Heisman Heat

Awaiting

Not on the live Heisman board this week.

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

TOP DB AWARD

Jim Thorpe

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R06 · Starter

Starter. A locked-in starting role.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
No recruit profile
CFB
College
Washington State
2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionS
Class4
Jersey23
Measurements6-2 | 213 lb
HometownLutz, FL
Primary teamWashington State

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree Not on file No matched recruiting profile in the loaded archive
Composite rating -- Composite rating unavailable for this player
Signed with -- Commitment history unavailable
Origin -- Hometown and high school unavailable
Class Profile Context
No recruiting profile is on file for this player.

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 0 No portal entry on file
Latest destination -- --
Transfer stars -- CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility -- Transfer date TBD
Season Move Context
No transfer portal moves on file for this player.

Heisman Lens

Where the model places this player relative to the rest of the Heisman field.

Current nowcast--Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast--Where the full season sim points
Win probability--Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability--Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability--Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Matthew Durrance

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Matthew Durrance

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the defensive totals stand

final
Through 13g
58Tackles
2Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Per game
4Tackles
0.2Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Final
58Tackles
2Tackles for loss
0Sacks

Why this is a rare defensive case

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Matthew Durrance is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Washington State's defense, with 0.0 sacks, 2.0 tackles for loss, and 1 interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.

Current place -- -- win | -- finalist
Role load -- Role share still loading
Profile quirk Defensive rarity 0.0 sacks | 2.0 TFL

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

DEF season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Total tackles 58 35 solo | #433/4942 (91st pct)
TFL 2.0 Backfield disruption | #1443/4972 (71st pct)
Sacks 0.0 Pass-rush finish | #1762/4972 (65th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

High-volume tackler against FBS defenders.

High-volume tackler

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Tackling & Disruption

TOT
58 91st
SOLO
35 92nd
TFL
2.0 71st
SACK
0.0 65th

Coverage & Takeaways

PD
2 64th
INT
1 65th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 13 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppTKLSOLOTFLSACKINTPDNote
Wk 1W 13-10vs Idaho971.00.00Season-high 9 tackles
Wk 2W 36-13vs San Diego State530.00.00
Wk 3L 10-59@ North Texas430.00.00
Wk 4L 24-59vs Washington540.00.00
Wk 5W 20-3@ Colorado State310.00.00
Wk 7L 21-24@ Ole Miss430.00.00
Wk 8L 20-22@ Virginia610.00.00
Wk 9W 28-7vs Toledo110.00.00
Wk 10L 7-10@ Oregon State110.00.00
Wk 12W 28-3vs Louisiana Tech510.00.00
Wk 13L 20-24@ James Madison851.00.01
Wk 14W 32-8vs Oregon State420.00.01
BowlW 34-21@ Utah State330.00.010
Total58352.00.012
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2025Washington State7-6HC: Jimmy Rogers · Balanced
SeasonTeam
2025Washington State58352.00.021--
Career1 loaded season58352.00.021--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Disruption stats

TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.

Coverage splash

Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

INT 1 0 pick-six TD | #308/869 (65th pct)
Pass breakups 2 Coverage disruption | #792/2184 (64th pct)
QB pressures 0 Quarterback hurries
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Defense Total tackles 58 #433/4942 91st pct Volumevs FBS DEF
Defense TFL 2.0 #1443/4972 71st pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Sacks 0.0 #1762/4972 65th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Interceptions 1 #308/869 65th pct Takeawaysvs FBS DEF
Defense Pass breakups 2 #792/2184 64th pct Coveragevs FBS DEF
Defense Solo tackles 35 #353/4584 92nd pct Volumevs FBS DEF

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

The Thorpe award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 13 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Home6g4.80.20.00.2
Road7g4.10.10.00.1

Win vs Loss

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Wins7g4.30.10.00.1
Losses6g4.70.20.00.2

First half vs Second half

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Weeks 1-77g4.70.10.00.0
Weeks 8+6g4.20.20.00.3

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the S cohort

48Mid-pack
7 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: solo tackles (87th). Strength: tackles (85th). Concern: qb hurries (22nd).

Solo tackles#353 / 2975 · 88th pct
35defe
Tackles#433 / 2975 · 85th pct
58defe
Passes defended#777 / 2975 · 67th pct
2defe
Tackles for loss#1424 / 2975 · 47th pct
2.0defe
Interceptions#304 / 817 · 31st pct
1inte
Sacks#1575 / 2975 · 24th pct
0.0defe
QB hurries#1662 / 2975 · 22nd pct
0defe

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · S · 2025

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 7 metrics
Matthew DurranceWashington StateTyler MartinMassachusetts· 92% simTahj Ra-ElPurdue· 87% simRobert FitzgeraldNorthwestern· 79% sim
Solo tackles
88
Durrance
87
Martin
100
Ra-El
100
Fitzgerald
Tackles
85
Durrance
98
Martin
99
Ra-El
99
Fitzgerald
Passes defended
67
Durrance
67
Martin
91
Ra-El
86
Fitzgerald
Tackles for loss
47
Durrance
63
Martin
56
Ra-El
85
Fitzgerald
Interceptions
31
Durrance
31
Martin
31
Fitzgerald
Sacks
24
Durrance
24
Martin
24
Ra-El
24
Fitzgerald
QB hurries
22
Durrance
22
Martin
22
Ra-El
55
Fitzgerald

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Hybrid Nickel

Moves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB.

S

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Desmond Igbinosun’s 2024 season.

Desmond Igbinosun

92%match

Rutgers · 2024

#2

Trey Jones III

Central Michigan · 2023

89%
#3

Tyree Skipper

Louisiana · 2025

All-Sun Belt
88%
#4

Latavious Brini

Arkansas · 2022

84%
#5

Tyrez Lindsey

Memphis · 2020

82%

Matches Desmond on

Height
PD rate
Weight

Not enough data yet for this comparison.

As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Ty'Ron Hopper's sophomore season at Florida (2021).

Ty'Ron Hopper

91%match

Florida · 2021

NFL Rd 3 · Pk 28
#2

Caliph Brice

Florida Atlantic · 2021

90%
#3

Clayton Powell-Lee

Georgia Tech · 2023

90%
#4

Michael Shawcroft

San Diego State · 2021

All-Mountain West
90%
#5

John Marshall

Navy · 2021

88%

Matches Ty'Ron on

Class year
Height
PD rate

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Jimmy Rogers

Pass share

48.7%

407 pass / 429 run

Plays / game

64.3

13 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

6.1%

327 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Balanced.

Coaching Lineage · 2025

1 coach
2025
Jimmy Rogers
Washington State

Played his entire career under Jimmy Rogers.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownLutz, FL
Height6'2"
Weight213 lb
Class4
PositionS
Jersey23

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
This player hasn’t appeared on a Heisman ballot tracked by the model.

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Washington State Pac-12 S 4 No. 23 | 6-2 | 213 lb | Lutz, FL