CFB Zeitgeist Score
84
All-Conference in the position cohort. Carried by rec yards at the 84th percentile.
Matthew Hibner
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
436 REC YDS · 31 REC · 4 REC TD
Where He Ended Up · NFL
Baltimore2026 NFL rookie season
#133Rd 4 · Pick 33
Baltimore2026 NFL rookie season
TE · SMU · ACC
Matthew Hibner
- 4
- #88
- 6-5 | 252 lb
- Burke, VA
Heisman Heat
#280
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP TE AWARD
Mackey
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
In Their Words
59 windows · 2025 fan posts
max×243.8bredeson×330.1matthew×264.1schoonmaker×1056.4colston×226.4eric×198.1loveland×176.1klein×144.1
Development Trajectory · receiving yards
2022–2025+2807%
Up 2807% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
R4 · #133
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 4-star | 0.8918 | No. 397 recruit | HighSchool |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in receiving yards (436).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★★☆
to —
Composite
0.8918
#397 national
NFL Draft
2026 · Rd 4, Pick 33
#133 overall · Baltimore
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Matthew Hibner
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
50
Mixed Sentiment
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=1
- National · n=2
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Matthew Hibner
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Yards per reception
14.1
yds
All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions
National rank #153 of 531
Percentile vs All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions 71st
Why it matters
#153 of 531 All FBS WRs at 14.1 yards per reception (31 catches).
Vs cohort
This player 14.1 (71th)
HIGH · n=31 cohort 531
- Also strong
- Receiving TDs#161 / 531
- Receiving yards (total)#272 / 531
Signature Moment
Week 14 at California — 87 ypr
Result L 35-38
The week the volume broke through — put up 87 yds at California.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the receiving totals stand
Through 11g
436Rec yards
31Receptions
4Rec TDs
Per game
39.6Rec yards
3Receptions
0Rec TDs
Projected (13g)
515.3Rec yards
37Receptions
5Rec TDs
To hit 700-yard receiver (currently 436): needs 132/game over remaining 2.
To hit 1,000-yard receiver (currently 436): needs 282/game over remaining 2.
To hit 60-catch season (currently 31): needs 14.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 80-catch season (currently 31): needs 24.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 8 receiving TDs (currently 4): needs 2/game over remaining 2.
To hit 10 receiving TDs (currently 4): needs 3/game over remaining 2.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Matthew Hibner's story is about how role and output meet each other. For SMU, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
TE season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Target magnet | Big-play receiver against FBS receiving peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Receiving
REC
31 90th
YDS
436 94th
YPR
14.1 87th
TD
4 95th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 11 games
| Wk | Opp | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 42-13vs East Texas A&M | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wk 2 | L 45-48vs Baylor | 2 | 32 | 16.0 | 0 | 16 | |
| Wk 3 | W 28-10@ Missouri State | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | 5 | |
| Wk 4 | L 24-35@ TCU | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 1 | 9 | |
| Wk 6 | W 31-18vs Syracuse | 5 | 55 | 11.0 | 0 | 29 | |
| Wk 8 | W 35-24@ Clemson | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 1 | 22 | |
| Wk 10 | W 26-20vs Miami | 4 | 36 | 9.0 | 0 | 16 | |
| Wk 11 | W 45-13@ Boston College | 1 | 37 | 37.0 | 1 | 37 | |
| Wk 13 | W 38-6vs Louisville | 4 | 58 | 14.5 | 0 | 33 | |
| Wk 14 | L 35-38@ California | 5 | 87 | 17.4 | 1 | 32 | Season-high 87 yds |
| Bowl | W 24-19vs Arizona | 2 | 85 | 42.5 | 0 | 80 | |
| Total | 31 | 436 | 15.2 | 4 | 80 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2022Michigan13-1HC: Jim Harbaugh · Run-heavy
2023Michigan15-0HC: Jim Harbaugh · Run-heavy, slow tempo
2024SMU11-3HC: Rhett Lashlee · Run-leaning
2025SMU9-4HC: Rhett Lashlee · Balanced
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
The tight end's share of the passing offense, which helps distinguish a featured receiving tight end from a secondary option.
A blended usage view that shows how often the offense flows through the tight end compared with other same-level peers.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | Receptions | 31 | #48/475 | 90th pct | Volumevs FBS TE |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 436 | #28/475 | 94th pct | Volumevs FBS TE |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 4 | #27/475 | 95th pct | Scoringvs FBS TE |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 14.1 | #64/475 | 87th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS TE |
| Usage | Pass share | 10.2% | #88/468 | 81st pct | Air-game usagevs FBS TE |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 80 | #2/475 | 100th pct | Metricvs FBS TE |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 9.4% | #31/468 | 94th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS TE |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 6.7% | #47/468 | 90th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS TE |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 6.6% | #94/468 | 80th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS TE |
| Usage | Role share | 5.5% | #66/468 | 86th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS TE |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 4.1% | #124/468 | 74th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS TE |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 3.8% | #139/468 | 71st pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS TE |
| Usage | Rush share | 0.0% | #58/468 | 88th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS TE |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
The Mackey award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 11 games
Home vs Road
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home6g | 3.0 | 44.0 | 15.2 | 0.0 |
| Road5g | 2.6 | 34.4 | 15.2 | 0.8 |
Win vs Loss
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins8g | 2.6 | 37.8 | 16.1 | 0.2 |
| Losses3g | 3.3 | 44.7 | 12.8 | 0.7 |
First half vs Second half
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 2.5 | 31.5 | 12.4 | 0.2 |
| Weeks 8+5g | 3.2 | 49.4 | 18.5 | 0.6 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the TE cohort
84All-Conference
Elite: long catch (99th). Strength: yards / catch (90th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · TE · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Matthew HibnerSMUJoe RoyerCincinnati· 97% simLake McReeUSC· 96% simJamari JohnsonOregon· 91% sim
Long catch
Yards / catch
Rec yards
Rec TDs
Receptions
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Complete TE
Dual-threat: blocks when needed, catches when needed. Coveted on both sides.
TE
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Terrance Ferguson’s 2022 season.
Terrance Ferguson
79%match
NFL Rd 2 · Pk 14
#2
Caden Prieskorn
79%
#3
Terrance Ferguson
All-Big TenNFL Rd 2 · Pk 14
75%
#4
Joe Royer
All-Big 12NFL Rd 5
75%
#5
Anthony Landphere
All-AAC
74%
Matches Terrance on
Height
Yards / reception
Class year
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Neal Johnson's senior season at Louisiana (2023).
Neal Johnson
82%match
#2
Jack Velling
All-Big Ten
81%
#3
Boden Groen
80%
#4
Erick All
NFL Rd 4
79%
#5
Dallas Payne
77%
Matches Neal on
Weight
Yards / reception
EPA / play (adj)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Rhett Lashlee
Pass share
53.7%
460 pass / 396 run
Plays / game
65.8
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
5.4%
333 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025
1 coach2022
Rhett Lashlee
SMU
2023
Rhett Lashlee
SMU
2024
Rhett Lashlee
SMU
2025
Rhett Lashlee
SMU
Played his entire career under Rhett Lashlee.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownBurke, VA
Height6'5"
Weight252 lb
Class4
PositionTE
Jersey88
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamSMU
ConferenceACC
Joined2025
Career arc5 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | SMU | TE4 | #280 | #292 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | ACC |
| 2023 | Michigan | TE4 | #1932 | #1322 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Big Ten |
| 2022 | Michigan | TE4 | #1616 | #1083 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Big Ten |
| 2021 | Michigan | TE4 | #2422 | #1956 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Big Ten |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | SMU | ACC | TE | 4 | No. 88 | 6-5 | 252 lb | Burke, VA |
| 2024 | SMU | ACC | TE | 4 | No. 88 | 6-5 | 252 lb | Burke, VA |
| 2023 | Michigan | Big Ten | TE | 4 | No. 88 | 6-5 | 252 lb | Burke, VA |
| 2022 | Michigan | Big Ten | TE | 4 | No. 88 | 6-5 | 252 lb | Burke, VA |
| 2021 | Michigan | Big Ten | TE | 4 | No. 88 | 6-5 | 252 lb | Burke, VA |