The Zeitgeist List · Rivalries

War on I-4

UCF8-6South Florida
National Program II#56 of 138–National Program III#67 of 138–
See both programs’ full 91-year Zeitgeist History, side by side →
5 players crossed straight to the rival since 2021 — the turncoat ledger →

UCF leads the all-time series 8-6. They've met 14 times since 2005. UCF has won the last 6.

Current season

Vegas win totals and transfer-portal swing right now, plus what fans are actually saying — not history, this year.

UCF
Win total
6.5
Vegas over/under
Transfer portal
-4
portal net points (weighted) · raw ledger: -11
What fans are saying · schedule expectation
One fan believes UCF was not expected to win
My recap over UCF's amazing upset over BYU
Verified verbatim
South Florida
Transfer portal
-2
portal net points (weighted) · raw ledger: +19

Stature & the series, 2005–2022

Both programs’ standing over time, each line named at its end, with every meeting beneath — read down to see who was bigger and who won. (Stature is each program’s season-by-season standing on the Zeitgeist List, 1936–present — one score blending on-field performance, program achievement, and roster talent.)

program stature over timeUCFSouth Floridaevery meeting (bar height = margin; dark: UCF won, gray: South Florida won)20002020

The identity war

South Florida has been the more pass-heavy program more often than not.

Across 23 seasons of real play-level data (2004–2026), UCF led 11 and South Florida led 12.

more passmore runUCFSouth Florida2004200620082010201220142016201820202022202420262015UCF 20.7 ptsSouth Florida won 44-32024South Florida 9.8 pts2007South Florida 8.9 ptsSouth Florida won 64-12
Source team_season_stats (CFBD season totals) · pass rate = passAttempts ÷ (passAttempts + rushingAttempts)

UCF once won 6 in a row. The biggest win was South Florida by 52 in 2007. The biggest crowd, 65,948, was in 2007.

The coaching duels

George O'Leary vs Jim Leavitt0-4
George O'Leary vs Willie Taggart2-1
Josh Heupel vs Charlie Strong2-0
Gus Malzahn vs Jeff Scott2-0

The draft ledger

Every NFL Draft pick either program has produced since the modern era began, decade by decade.

Draft picks
46-30
UCF leads
1st-rounders
5-2
Since
1967
First CFBD-carried draft class
UCFSouth Florida
1990s5-0
2000s13-11
2010s16-19
2020s12-0

Best picks, either side

2014Blake Bortles Quarterback · Jacksonville JaguarsRd 1, pick 3#3 overall
1999Daunte Culpepper Quarterback · Minnesota VikingsRd 1, pick 11#11 overall
2010Jason Pierre-Paul Defensive End · New York GiantsRd 1, pick 15#15 overall
2026Malachi Lawrence Defensive Edge · Dallas CowboysRd 1, pick 23#23 overall
2008Mike Jenkins Cornerback · Dallas CowboysRd 1, pick 25#25 overall
2015Breshad Perriman Wide Receiver · Baltimore RavensRd 1, pick 26#26 overall
2018Mike Hughes Cornerback · Minnesota VikingsRd 1, pick 30#30 overall
2010Nate Allen Safety · Philadelphia EaglesRd 2, pick 5#37 overall

Recent meetings

Gate premium

South Florida1.10×its own average home crowd

A modest gap over a small sample of games — real, but not a dramatic swing.

2022UCF46-39
2021UCF17-13
2020UCF58-46
2019UCF34-7
2018UCF38-10
2017UCF49-42South Florida — both ranked
2016South Florida48-31
2015South Florida44-3
2014UCF16-0
2013UCF23-20South Florida — decided by 3
2008South Florida31-24
2007South Florida64-12
2006South Florida24-17
2005South Florida31-14

Every meeting since 2018, play by play

Each line is UCF’s chance to win through that meeting. UCF is 2-0 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

2022UCF 46-39UCF won 46-39 at South Florida. Chance to win started at 87%, low 35%, high better than 99%.Busy
2021UCF 17-13UCF won 17-13 vs South Florida. Chance to win started at 90%, low 58%, high better than 99%.
2020UCF 58-46UCF won 58-46 at South Florida. Chance to win started at 95%, low 79%, high better than 99%.
2019UCF 34-7UCF won 34-7 vs South Florida. Chance to win started at 94%, low 93%, high better than 99%.
2018UCF 38-10UCF won 38-10 at South Florida. Chance to win started at 45%, low 41%, high better than 99%.

Meetings with their own story page

8 meetings in our archive, 2015 to 2022.