Next game
at Truman State
Sat Oct 24 · 2:30 pm ET
Stokes Stadium · series 2-3, lost the last 2
Southwest Baptist University 13% to win · our ratings after 8 games
Southwest Baptist University
3-4-1Great Lakes · Plaster Sports Complex · 17,337 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
L 23-42 vs Upper Iowa
Our model gave Southwest Baptist University 58% before kickoff
The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Indianapolis 10%, Truman State 13%
Win out 1% · expect 1.0 of 3 more wins
Southwest Baptist University's chance to win each game left, from our model: Truman State 13%, Indianapolis 10%, Quincy 73%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line at Truman State · our model 13% Southwest Baptist University
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
Southwest Baptist University · 2026 schedule and results3-4-1Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 43%.Our rank entering each game: #385 to #361
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 27 | #385 | — | — | William Woods | W 63-6 | 1-0 | 0-0 | |
| 1 | Sep 5 | #385 | #370 | — | @South Dakota Mines | L 17-38 | 1-1 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #396 | #332 | — | Roosevelt | L 56-59 | 1-2 | 0-0 | |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #398 | #391 | — | William Jewell | L 17-27 | 1-3 | 0-1 | |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #398 | #328 | — | @Missouri S&T | T 28-28 | 1-3-1 | 0-1 | |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #395 | #414 | — | Lincoln (MO) | W 52-17 | 2-3-1 | 1-1 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #378 | #400 | — | @McKendree | W 55-45 | 3-3-1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #361 | #325 | — | Upper Iowa | L 23-42 | 3-4-1 | 2-2 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #382 | #288 | @Truman State | 2:30 pm ET13% to win | ||||
| 9 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Indianapolis | 2 pm ET10% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Quincy | 2 pm ET73% to win | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Southwest Baptist University, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Southwest Baptist University: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Southwest Baptist University has won two of its last five.
3-6 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Streak L1Last 5 · 2-2Last 10 · 3-6
Range of outcomes · Southwest Baptist University · 2026
Range of outcomes · Southwest Baptist University · 2026Southwest Baptist University’s most likely regular season is 4-6. 99% of outcomes land from 3-7 to 5-5.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
3 wins 21%; 4 wins 62%; 5 wins 16%; 6 wins 1%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor3-9Rebuild year. Below .500.
Base5-7Mid-table finish.
Ceiling8-4Conference title race. Bracket qualifier in range.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 7 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 3-4
Game feel72shootoutscombined pts / game2nd highest-scoring of 9 in the Great Lakes
Heart rate0-1rarely closein one-score games (1 of 8)9th most one-score games of 9 in the Great Lakes
Margin+6.1comfortableavg scoring margin2nd best margin of 9 in the Great Lakes
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Great Lakes teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
Southwest Baptist is the Missouri program that plays for faith, community, and pride — a small university with a fresh head coach and a chance to build something real.
Title DroughtSince 1986 · 40 yrs
Fans here believe no chip. Southwest Baptist plays for itself and for the community it serves. The program is built on faith, academics, and the belief that small schools can compete.
Game day
The experience
Southwest Baptist is the Missouri program that plays for faith, community, and pride — a small university with a fresh head coach and a chance to build something real.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site