Next game: at Indiana
Indiana’s best edge on USC is passing
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
USC offense against Indiana defense
Indiana offense against USC defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Surgeon · +0.41 EPA/play | 14 | 9 | 198 / 296 | 66.9 | 2525 #6 FBS | 8.5 | 20 #8 FBS | 5 | 157.5 | 87 | 78.2 | 8.5 | 3.3 | |
Yards by week → Pocket surgeonHigh-percentage passer who protects the ball. Loses the matchup on improvisation. In the Heisman race — our Heisman model ranks this player #21 right now. This week's matchup — QB Maiava picks you apart underneath and protects the ball. Hoover is the one who pushes it downfield on every look. Season receipt Completion %68.1% 79th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush yards / carry-2.7 bottom 1th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jayden Maiava's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| +0.60 EPA/play | 15 | 3 | 12 / 14 | 85.7 | 126 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 147.0 | — | 67.2 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Workhorse · +0.21 EPA/play | 8 | 9 | 138 | 681 #32 FBS | 4.9 | 5 | 35 | 15.4 | 15.4 | |
Yards by week → WorkhorseBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. Starter — 138 carries and 9 catches in 9 games, more touches a game than most FBS running backs who play every week. This week's matchup — RB Miller just keeps getting the ball, series after series. Richard is the one who hits the crease and outruns the angle. Season receipt Weight225 lb 92th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share6.1% bottom 21th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like the ball security is the one real worry — 2.04 fumbles per 100 touches (top-decile concern) | ||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.04 EPA/play | 2 | 8 | 75 | 335 | 4.5 | 3 | 20 | 21.1 | 15.8 | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. 75 carries and 7 catches in 8 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 134 of 278 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2025 class View Waymond Jordan's full player page | ||||||||||
| +0.13 EPA/play | 22 | 5 | 24 | 120 | 5 | 1 | 15 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Threat · +0.69 EPA/play | 4 | 6 | 32 | 512 #67 FBS | 16 | 6 #23 FBS | 69 | |
Yards by week → Deep threatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. 32 catches and 2 carries in 6 games. More catches a game than most FBS receivers who play every week. This week's matchup — WR Mosley beats you over the top. Becker is the one who beats you over the top. Season receipt Yards / reception16.6 81th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate18.8% 93th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Trent Mosley's full player page | ||||||||
| Slot Technician · +0.56 EPA/play | 17 | 8 | 32 | 443 | 13.8 | 4 #70 FBS | 32 | |
Yards by week → Slot technicianRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. 32 catches and 1 carry in 8 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Dixon-Wyatt wins underneath on volume and route precision. Becker is the one who beats you over the top. Season receipt Reception volume32 71th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate12.5% 70th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kayden Dixon-Wyatt's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +1.03 EPA/play | — | 9 | 21 | 344 | 16.4 | 1 | 44 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Money-downReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. lives on the sticks and moves the chains This week's matchup — WR Williams moves the chains on third down. Becker is the one who beats you over the top. Season receipt Yards / reception15.2 69th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)1.0 96th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Zacharyus Williams's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.64 EPA/play | 19 | 6 | 24 | 283 | 11.8 | 2 | 70 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 24 catches in 6 games. More catches a game than most FBS tight ends who play every week. 126 of 166 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception12.3 64th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume24 80th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Mark Bowman's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.77 EPA/play | 16 | 7 | 19 | 239 | 12.6 | 4 #70 FBS | 40 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Hines moves the chains on third down. Becker is the one who beats you over the top. Season receipt Yards / reception13.9 54th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate21.1% 97th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Tanook Hines's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.51 EPA/play | 10 | 4 | 12 | 178 | 14.8 | 1 | 52 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 4 of 10 games this season · freshman · 4-star, 2025 class View Corey Simms's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.83 EPA/play | 85 | 5 | 9 | 124 | 13.8 | 0 | 27 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +0.50 EPA/play | 1 | 8 | 10 | 96 | 9.6 | 0 | 27 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.18 EPA/play | 24 | 7 | 9 | 73 | 8.1 | 0 | 29 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 126 of 166 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception8.1 bottom 22th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 13th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Carson Tabaracci's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.71 EPA/play | 88 | 3 | 8 | 71 | 8.9 | 1 | 25 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. The most common profile in its group this season — 126 of 166 classified this way. Played in 3 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2025 class View Taniela Tupou's full player page | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Versatile End | 94 | 9 | 36 | 26 | 8.5 #40 FBS | 3 | 1 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. Impact starter — 36 tackles in 9 games, more tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. 121 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate23.6% 66th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Luke Wafle's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 1 | 9 | 30 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. Starter — 30 tackles in 9 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 121 of 180 classified this way. Played in 9 of 10 games this season · freshman · 4-star, 2024 class View Kameryn Fountain's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 97 | 8 | 24 | 15 | 3.5 | 1 | 2 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 24 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate14.6% bottom 48th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jide Abasiri's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 91 | 8 | 17 | 8 | 2 | 0.5 | 1 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Alex VanSumeren's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 10 | 7 | 14 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. The most common profile in its group this season — 121 of 180 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 4-star, 2023 class View Braylan Shelby's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 18 | 7 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. The most common profile in its group this season — 121 of 180 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Zuriah Fisher's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 88 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight315 lb 86th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Floyd Boucard's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 4 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate20.0% 67th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jahkeem Stewart's full player page | |||||||
| 95 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 17 | 9 | 55 | 32 | 23 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Sideline-to-sidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 55 tackles in 9 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 83 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 83th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate0.9% bottom 12th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Deven Bryant's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 8 | 8 | 45 | 27 | 18 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 2 | 0 |
Sideline-to-sidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 45 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 83 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 86th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate1.1% bottom 32th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Desman Stephens II's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 14 | 8 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Sideline-to-sidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 83 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.7 98th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume17 bottom 12th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Ta'Mere Robinson's full player page | |||||||||
| 15 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 22 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 6 | 9 | 49 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Starter — 49 tackles in 9 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume49 92th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Christian Pierce's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 9 | 9 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. 29 tackles in 9 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive backs who play every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume29 bottom 43th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Kennedy Urlacher's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 16 | 9 | 21 | 3 | 2 #51 FBS | 1 | 0 |
Cover corner· Takeaway threatSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way The most common profile in its group this season — 138 of 244 classified this way. Played in 9 of 10 games this season · freshman View Prophet Brown's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 7 | 7 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 138 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Alex Graham's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | — | 9 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 138 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate11.1% bottom 41th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jontez Williams's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 27 | 5 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 138 of 244 classified this way. Played in 5 of 10 games this season · freshman View Chasen Johnson's full player page | |||||||
| 21 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 25 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 45 | 9 | 9/12 | 75 | 34/34 | 61 | 39 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 9 | 17 | 827 | 48.6 | 56 | 6 | 3 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.44 EPA/play | 6 | 3 | 6 | 108 | 18 | 0 | 26 |
| +0.50 EPA/play | 1 | 8 | 6 | 99 | 16.5 | 0 | 25 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Threat · +0.69 EPA/play | 4 | 6 | 8 | 212 | 26.5 | 1 | 86 |
| +1.15 EPA/play | 9 | 3 | 6 | 42 | 7 | 0 | 18 |
Biggest plays from USC’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in USC’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q1, 14:21 · USC tiedJayden Maiava finds Trent Mosley for a 69-yard touchdownOhio State at USC, week 9Q1, 14:21 · USC 7, Ohio State 06969-yard touchdown pass6969-yard touchdown pass69-yard touchdown passJ.Maiava pass complete short right to T.Mosley caught at USC32, for 69 yards to the OSU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this playBig Ten Football
Q2, 1:51 · Wisconsin down 4, takes the leadBryan Jackson runs 5 yards for a touchdownUSC at Wisconsin, week 8Q2, 1:51 · Wisconsin 10, USC 7Bryan Jackson scores against former team USCBryan Jackson scores against former team USCB.Jackson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USC00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this playBig Ten Football- Q2, 13:36 · USC breaks the tieJayden Maiava finds Tanook Hines for an 11-yard touchdownUSC at Penn State, week 6Q2, 13:36 · USC 14, Penn State 7USC took the lead in the second quarterUSC took the lead in the second quarterJ. Maiava pass to T. Hines for 11 yds, for a TD (C. Chittenden kick)▶Watch from this playBig Ten Football
- Q1, 10:37 · USC tiedJayden Maiava finds Trent Mosley for a 19-yard touchdownUSC at Penn State, week 6Q1, 10:37 · USC 7, Penn State 0USC opened the scoringUSC opened the scoringJ. Maiava pass to T. Mosley for 19 yds, for a TD (C. Chittenden kick)▶Watch from this playBig Ten Football
- Q4, 11:11 · USC up 1Jayden Maiava finds Kayden Dixon-Wyatt for a 10-yard touchdownUSC at Penn State, week 6Q4, 11:11 · USC 31, Penn State 23Jayden Maiava's third touchdown pass of the gameJayden Maiava's third touchdown pass of the gameJ.Maiava pass complete short left to K.Dixon-Wyatt caught at PSU00, for 10 yards to the PSU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this playBig Ten Football
Q1, 7:26 · Penn State down 7, ties itRocco Becht finds Andrew Rappleyea for a 13-yard touchdownUSC at Penn State, week 6Q1, 7:26 · Penn State 7, USC 7Penn State tied the game in the first quarterPenn State tied the game in the first quarterR.Becht pass complete short left to A.Rappleyea caught at USC05, for 13 yards to the USC00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this playBig Ten Football
How scary each game got
USC lost to Oregon after being 75% to win; the closest win was against Washington, down to 17%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave USC during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · USC
through 9 games
2026 stat leaders · USCJayden Maiava leads USC with 2,525 passing yards through 9 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+18 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
USC fields an elite offense behind a leaky defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
USC reads strongest in red-zone finish (top 8%) and passing EPA (top 9%); the crux lives in passing EPA allowed, where USC sits at the 18th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
USC is worth +5.7 points more at home than on the road.
Top third of FBS, 79th percentile of 133 programs
71% at home, 51% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (39-16 home, 22-21 away). Interval ±3.3.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, USC has beaten the number by +2.7 more at home than away over 98 games. That is inside the ±4.8 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum seats 77,500 and has averaged 86% full (66,278, 32 games reported). Visitors face the 20th-longest trip of 135 FBS venues: a median 640 miles since 2018. Some of what the band above measures is the map, not the crowd. For the home side it is genuinely home ground: 43% of the 2026 roster (53 of 124 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 55 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Money downJa'Kobi Lane is a legitimate money-down target: his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
- Deep threatMakai Lemon is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks, and he catches those deep shots at a plus rate.
- UnderdogMakai Lemon produces at a notably lower rate when his team is an underdog than when favored: he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
- Deep threatTanook Hines is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks, and he catches those deep shots at a plus rate.
- Money downTanook Hines is a legitimate money-down target: his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
- Garbage timeKing Miller does not see a usage spike in garbage time: his workload holds steady regardless of score.
- Deep threatLake McRee is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
King Miller and Waymond Jordan split the carries (133/209 vs 76/209) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Kayden Dixon-Wyatt (WR) and Mark Bowman (TE) split the targets (47/76 vs 29/76) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How USC actually scores
80th percentile quality, 12th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
USC’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 62nd percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 43rd — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does USC hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
79th percentile success on standard downs, 97th on passing downs — a 18-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
USC by half
1st-half offense ranks 76th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 76th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of USC’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.26; 89th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.10. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.36 raw vs. 0.05 adjusted.
Tendency drift
How USC’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), USC’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (69.8% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 271-play sample) — mid-pack, 116 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), USC’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (66.6% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 218-play sample) — mid-pack, 78 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
Recovering 80% of the fumbles they've forced — running hot vs. the ~48% league rate.
4 of 5 forced fumbles recovered; 5 of 8 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Converting 15% of pass disruptions into takeaways — right in line with the ~18% league rate.
3 interceptions of 20 disrupted passes (17 deflected, 3 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
Losing the penalty battle: 56 penalties committed vs. 47 drawn on opponents, a 114-yard deficit.
483 penalty yards committed vs. 369 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · USC
Most similar programs · USCReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Weather
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA
Usual during the game around Nov 20: 62°, between 56° and 68° in about 7 in 10 games (27 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 64°, and 8 in 10 ran between 47° and 79° (49 of 50 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.