This week · as of Wed Nov 4

3-5, on track for 4-7 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianUCLAUConnColorado StateUSCUSCDynastythe sport's summitBlue Bloodpermanent top tierPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelUCLA when he took over: 33.1 (National Program II), its final 2011 readingtook overUCLA, 2012: 9-5, National Program IIUCLA, 2012: 9-5, National Program II20129-5UCLA, 2013: 10-3, National Program I201310-3UCLA, 2014: 10-3, Power Program III201410-3UCLA, 2015: 8-5, Power Program III20158-5UCLA, 2016: 4-8, Power Program III20164-8UCLA, 2017: 5-6, Power Program IIIUCLA, 2017: 5-6, Power Program III20175-6+11.0UConn when he took over: 7.5 (Regional Program V), its final 2021 readingtook overUConn, 2022: 6-7, Regional Program VUConn, 2022: 6-7, Regional Program V20226-7UConn, 2023: 3-9, Regional Program V20233-9UConn, 2024: 9-4, Regional Program IV20249-4UConn, 2025: 9-3, Regional Program IVUConn, 2025: 9-3, Regional Program IV20259-3+5.2Colorado State when he took over: 10.5 (Regional Program IV), its final 2025 readingtook overColorado State, 2026: 3-5, Regional Program IVColorado State, 2026: 3-5, Regional Program IV20263-50.0best: 2015gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 3-3

UCLA2012Holiday BowlL 26-492013Sun BowlW 42-122014Alamo BowlW 40-352015Foster Farms BowlL 29-37UConn2022Myrtle Beach BowlL 14-282024Fenway BowlW 27-14

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 14-31 at Utah State Sat Oct 31
  • This season3-5
  • On track for4-7 regular season
  • Nextvs. Boise State Sat Nov 7
  • Stature117th of 138 FBS programs

Saturday: vs. Boise State

Sat Nov 7, 6 pm ET USA Network · No. 20 Boise State is 7-1 · First meeting between Mora and Spencer Danielson as head coaches · Colorado State’s chance to win: 8% (the site’s model)

His week

The hammer is coming down”

Jim Mora after Colorado State's loss at Utah State

FootballScoop headline · Sun Nov 1

Several stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from several outlets

Offense: 37th of 138 per play. Defense: 138th.

Offense, per play37thOffense, points per trip inside the 401stDefense, per play138thRun defense138thWorstBest
Offense, per play37th of 138Offense, points per trip inside the 401st of 138Defense, per play138th of 138Run defense138th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Colorado State. The other two rows are where Colorado State stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

3 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7vs. Boise State (7-1)USA Network8%
  2. Sat Nov 14at Washington State (1-8)CBS Sports Network45%
  3. Sat Nov 21at Fresno State (5-3)The CW16%

Percent: Colorado State’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Colorado State stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

112th118th124thPreseason120thWyoming W 35-13Wyoming W 35-13W 35-13Wyoming119thSouthern Utah W 58-24Southern Utah W 58-24W 58-24Southern Utah119thBYU L 23-41BYU L 23-41L 23-41BYU118thUTSA L 45-59UTSA L 45-59L 45-59UTSA117thOregon State L 26-56Oregon State L 26-56L 26-56Oregon State117thTexas State L 27-66Texas State L 27-66L 27-66Texas State117thSan Diego State W 56-49San Diego State W 56-49W 56-49San Diego Sta…117thUtah State L 14-31Utah State L 14-31L 14-31Utah State117thBye117th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1L 14-31 at Utah State2 headlines · 77th of 138Jim Mora press conference after CSU football loss to Utah State The Coloradoan
  2. Oct 19–25W 56-49 vs. San Diego State7 headlines · 53rd of 138What CSU coach Jim Mora said after win over San Diego State The Coloradoan
  3. Oct 12–18L 27-66 at Texas State5 headlines · 51st of 138What CSU football coach Jim Mora said after allowing 66 vs Texas State The Coloradoan
  4. Oct 5–11No game5 headlines · 56th of 138Jim Mora explains why dismissed coach Tyson Summers left field: 'He made the decision' USA Today“He made the decision”Jim Mora explains why dismissed coach Tyson Summers left field, Oct 4
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 26-56 vs. Oregon State6 headlines · 59th of 138Did Jim Mora fire Colorado State's defensive coordinator mid-game? USA Today
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 45-59 at UTSA3 headlines · 68th of 138What Jim Mora said after UTSA loss, including frustration with defense The Coloradoan

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Colorado State’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

This season

1%chance he’s out by the end of this seasonCool84th-hottest of 132 FBS jobs
0%50%+

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

His first rated season here.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool20262026, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 107th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 1%, 106th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 1%, 94th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (5 games in): 1%, 99th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): 1%, 92nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 97th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 1%, 90th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 1%, 84th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnow

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    3-5, outscored by 55
  • ▼ Cooler
    Year 1 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

  • ▼ Cooler
    Regional Program program · the bar going in

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 3-5 after 8 games
18% pushed out over results · of 379 coaches
Were in year 1, after 8 games
1% pushed out over results · of 521 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
No figure on file for this coach. The salary database predates the last coaching carousel; a name mismatch is suppressed rather than misattributed.

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.