Joe Moorhead

Head coach · Akron
5th season · since 2022 · Mississippi State before

At Akron14-43since 2022 · 1-8 this seasonHot seatBoiling52% · 2nd of 132 jobsLast gameL 20-28vs Ohio · Nov 4Nextvs Western MichiganTue Nov 10 · 7 pm ET · CBS Sports Network
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

Akron never had better than a 61% chance.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianMississippi StateAkronKent StateKent StatePower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelMississippi State when he took over: 42.0 (National Program I), its final 2017 readingtook overMississippi State, 2018: 8-5, Power Program IIIMississippi State, 2018: 8-5, Power Program III20188-5Mississippi State, 2019: 6-7, Power Program IIIMississippi State, 2019: 6-7, Power Program III20196-7+2.9Akron when he took over: 3.1 (Regional Program VI), its final 2021 readingtook overAkron, 2022: 2-10, Regional Program VIAkron, 2022: 2-10, Regional Program VI20222-10Akron, 2023: 2-10, Regional Program VI20232-10Akron, 2024: 4-8, Regional Program VI20244-8Akron, 2025: 5-7, Regional Program VI20255-7Akron, 2026: 1-8, Regional Program VAkron, 2026: 1-8, Regional Program V20261-8+1.8best: 2018gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 0-2

Mississippi State2018Outback BowlL 22-272019Music City BowlL 28-38

This week Wed Nov 4

  • This season1-8 lost 7 straight
  • Hot seat52% 2nd of 132
  • On track for2-10 regular season
  • Nextvs. Western Michigan Tue Nov 10
  • Stature133rd of 138 FBS programs

Akron never had better than a 61% chance.

Ohio7-228
Akron1-820Final
Tue, Nov 3 · InfoCision Stadium, Akron, Ohio · 66°, clearESPN2

Lost as a 12.5-point underdog.

Pick-sixOhio · Q1 0:0991-yard TD runOhio · Q4 3:57
FinalAkron 20-28 OhioAkron lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q423% at halfAkronOhioLost20-28123+30−37−27ScoresPick-six4th and 13 at the Ohio 22: Missed a field goal4th and 1 at the Ohio 24: Kicked a field goal4th and 2 at the Ohio 29: Kicked a field goal4th and 6 at the Ohio 6: Kicked a field goal4th and 6 at Akron own 43: Punted
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q423% at halfAkronOhioLost20-28ScoresPick-six4th and 13 at the Ohio 22: Missed a field goal4th and 1 at the Ohio 24: Kicked a field goal4th and 2 at the Ohio 29: Kicked a field goal4th and 6 at the Ohio 6: Kicked a field goal4th and 6 at Akron own 43: Punted

The three plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 9:35Gant 1-yd TD run, Akron goes ahead 17-14Akron 31% → 61% (+30)
  2. 2Q4 9:22Poulos 60-yd TD pass to Dorwart, Ohio goes ahead 21-17Akron 61% → 24% (−37)
  3. 3Q4 3:57Brune 91-yd TD run, Ohio leads 28-17Akron 30% → 3% (−27)
Akron’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Ohio -12.5), at 31% for Akron (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Best Akron lines

  • Cibastian Broughton22 of 34, 232 yards, 1 INT
  • Jordan Gant16 carries, 112 yards, 1 TD
  • Kyan Mason6 catches, 71 yards
  • Connor Cravaack5 catches, 43 yards
  • Donelius Johnson9 tackles
  • Cyrus Durham2 tackles, 1 sack

His fourth-down calls

4 of 8 matched what most FBS coaches do in that spot (FBS play-by-play, 2014–25: the same distance and quarter, within 5 yards; not the score or the clock).

  1. Q1 3:36 · tied

    4th & 1, opp 24

    Kicked a field goal

    88% of FBS coaches go for it there

  2. Q2 3:28 · down 4

    4th & 2, opp 29

    Kicked a field goal

    76% of FBS coaches go for it there

  3. Q4 4:11 · down 4

    4th & 6, opp 9

    Went for it · stopped

    32% of FBS coaches go for it there

  4. Q4 2:48 · down 11

    4th & 10, own 37

    Went for it · converted

    29% of FBS coaches go for it there

  5. Q4 1:58 · down 11

    4th & 10, opp 25

    Kicked a field goal

    45% of FBS coaches go for it there

Also 1 punt, 1 field goal and 1 missed field goal where nearly every FBS coach kicks.

Is he getting fired?

52% chance he’s out after the season · 2nd of 132 FBS head coaches · Boiling

Before Ohio: 54%. Had they won: 49%.

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow49% had they won49% had they wonLoss 50%Win 48%21%27%21%26%41%50%53%54%54%52%Pre1L at Wake ForestL2W vs. Robert MorrisW3L at MinnesotaL4L vs. UNLVL5L at Central MichiganL6L vs. Eastern MichiganL7L at Miami (OH)L8L at Kent StateL9L vs. OhioL10Chance to win vs. Western Michigan14%11Chance to win at Massachusetts38%12Chance to win vs. Buffalo32%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow49% had they wonLoss 50%Win 48%21%52%Pre36912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 1-1150%
  2. 2-1050%
  3. 3-946%
  4. 4-839%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now hotter than at this point in 2025.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool202220232024202520262022, week 3 (3 games in): 2%, 89th-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2022, week 4 (4 games in): 2%, 89th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 5 (5 games in): 3%, 79th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 6 (6 games in): 4%, 75th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 7 (7 games in): 4%, 71st-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 8 (8 games in): 4%, 68th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 9 (9 games in): 5%, 64th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 10 (9 games in): 5%, 60th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 11 (10 games in): 5%, 61st-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 12 (10 games in): 5%, 61st-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 13 (11 games in): 3%, 65th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 14 (12 games in): 3%, 65th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 15 (12 games in): 3%, 65th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2023, week 3 (3 games in): 18%, 30th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2023, week 4 (4 games in): 21%, 25th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 5 (5 games in): 29%, 14th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 6 (6 games in): 33%, 11th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 7 (7 games in): 35%, 9th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 8 (8 games in): 36%, 11th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 9 (8 games in): 36%, 10th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 10 (9 games in): 32%, 9th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 11 (10 games in): 32%, 8th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 12 (11 games in): 34.5%, 8th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 13 (12 games in): 34.6%, 8th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 14 (12 games in): 34.6%, 8th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 15 (12 games in): 34.6%, 8th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2024, week 3 (3 games in): 37%, 7th-hottest of 111 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (4 games in): 39%, 7th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (5 games in): 42%, 6th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (6 games in): 43%, 6th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (7 games in): 42%, 6th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): 42%, 6th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (8 games in): 38%, 9th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (9 games in): 41%, 8th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (9 games in): 41%, 9th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): 40%, 8th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): 37%, 10th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): 34%, 9th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): 34%, 9th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): 34%, 9th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 3 (3 games in): 45%, 2nd-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 45%, 4th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (5 games in): 45%, 4th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (6 games in): 40%, 5th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (7 games in): 41%, 4th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (8 games in): 41%, 4th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (9 games in): 34%, 8th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (9 games in): 34%, 8th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (10 games in): 33%, 9th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (11 games in): 36%, 8th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (12 games in): 32%, 10th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 32%, 10th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 32%, 10th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 32%, 10th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 26%, 15th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 41%, 6th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 50%, 5th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 53%, 4th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (7 games in): 54%, 3rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (8 games in): 54%, 2nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 54%, 2nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (9 games in): 52%, 2nd-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnowHottest: 2026, week 8▲ 1-7, outscored by 110

Hottest: 2026, week 8 (54%, 2nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs that week). Top factor: ▲ Hotter 1-7, outscored by 110

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    1-8, outscored by 118
  • ▲ Hotter
    $664K buyout (USA Today estimate) · 1.1× his pay, a multiple among the smallest in FBS — cheap to move on
  • ▲ Hotter
    Year 5 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 1-8 after 9 games
21% pushed out over results · of 136 coaches
Were in years 5-9, after 9 games
13% pushed out over results · of 695 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$664,063 USA Today estimate (Oct. 2025) — not a disclosed figure · 1.1× total pay · a small buyout, which raises his chance of being let go · without it: 41%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

Offense: 92nd of 138 per play. Defense: 132nd.

Offense, per play92ndOffense, starting field position114thDefense, per play132ndDefense, big plays allowed138thWorstBest
Offense, per play92nd of 138Offense, starting field position114th of 138Defense, per play132nd of 138Defense, big plays allowed138th of 138WorstBest
Through 9 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Akron. The other two rows are where Akron stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

No headlines named him in the last 7 days

What they are talking about, week and season

3 games left

  1. Tue Nov 10vs. Western Michigan (6-3)CBS Sports Network14%
  2. Wed Nov 18at Massachusetts (4-4)38%
  3. Fri Nov 27vs. Buffalo (6-3)32%

Percent: Akron’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Akron has held at 133rd of 138 FBS programs by stature after every game this season.

  1. Oct 26–Nov 1No game0 headlines
  2. Oct 19–25L 20-35 at Kent State0 headlines
  3. Oct 12–18L 14-34 at Miami (OH)0 headlines
  4. Oct 5–11L 23-25 vs. Eastern Michigan0 headlines
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 17-41 at Central Michigan0 headlines
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 10-38 vs. UNLV2 headlines · 76th of 138Akron football coach Joe Moorhead on QB Brayden Roggow vs. UNLV. Video Yahoo Sports

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Akron’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Offense carries it: 35th percentile offense, bottom-quarter defense at 22nd.

Akron, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

C-
of which —35th
efficiency — 35th percentile success rate, 2022–25
C40th
Standard-downs success
D29th
Passing-downs success
C41st
Trench push (line yards)
D29th
Red-zone scoring rate
B+76th
Power-success (short yardage)
D20th
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

D
of which —22nd
22nd percentile SP+ defense, 2022–25
B+72nd
Front-7 havoc
B67th
Secondary havoc
B-51st
Stuff rate (run defense)
D23rd
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.