Lance Leipold

Head coach · Kansas
6th season · since 2021 · Buffalo before

At Kansas30-40since 2021 · 3-5 this seasonHot seatWarm14% · 28th of 132 jobsLast gameL 16-22at TCU · Oct 31Nextvs UCFSat Nov 7 · 3:45 pm ET · ESPN2
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

3-5, on track for 5-7 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianBuffaloKansasAkronAkronKansas StateKansas StatePower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelBuffalo when he took over: 13.1 (Regional Program IV), its final 2014 readingtook overBuffalo, 2015: 5-7, Regional Program IVBuffalo, 2015: 5-7, Regional Program IV20155-7Buffalo, 2016: 2-10, Regional Program V20162-10Buffalo, 2017: 6-6, Regional Program V20176-6Buffalo, 2018: 10-4, Regional Program IV201810-4Buffalo, 2019: 8-5, Regional Program IV20198-5Buffalo, 2020: 6-1, Regional Program IIIBuffalo, 2020: 6-1, Regional Program III20206-1+0.6Kansas when he took over: 9.0 (Regional Program V), its final 2020 readingtook overKansas, 2021: 2-10, Regional Program VKansas, 2021: 2-10, Regional Program V20212-10Kansas, 2022: 6-7, Regional Program IV20226-7Kansas, 2023: 9-4, Regional Program III20239-4Kansas, 2024: 5-7, Regional Program I20245-7Kansas, 2025: 5-7, Regional Program I20255-7Kansas, 2026: 3-5, Regional Program IKansas, 2026: 3-5, Regional Program I20263-5+16.3best: 2025gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 3-2

Buffalo2018Dollar General BowlL 32-422019Bahamas BowlW 31-92020Camellia BowlW 17-10Kansas2022Liberty BowlL 53-552023Guaranteed Rate BowlW 49-36

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 16-22 at TCU Sat Oct 31
  • This season3-5
  • Hot seat14% 28th of 132
  • On track for5-7 regular season
  • Nextvs. UCF Sat Nov 7
  • Stature68th of 138 FBS programs

Win and he’s at 11%. Lose and he’s at 17%.

vs. UCF, Sat Nov 7, 3:45 pm ET ESPN2 · UCF is 4-4 · Leipold vs. Scott Frost: 1-0 · Kansas’s chance to win: 64% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Kansas wins: 11%, 34th of 132Now: 14%If Kansas loses: 17%, 24th of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Kansas wins: 11%, 34th of 132
  • Now: 14%
  • If Kansas loses: 17%, 24th of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

14% chance he’s out after the season · 28th of 132 FBS head coaches · Warm

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow10% had they won10% had they wonLoss 17%Win 11%13%11%16%24%14%14%19%14%14%Pre1W vs. Long Island UniversityW2L vs. MissouriL3L vs. Arizona StateL4W vs. Middle TennesseeW5L at UtahL6L at Kansas StateL7W vs. BaylorW8L at TCUL9Chance to win vs. UCF64%10Chance to win at West Virginia67%11Chance to win vs. BYU29%12Chance to win at Oklahoma State47%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow10% had they wonLoss 17%Win 11%13%14%Pre368912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 3-928%
  2. 4-817%
  3. 5-711%
  4. 6-67%
  5. 7-54%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

All five of his finished seasons here ended Cool. Now hotter than at this point in any of them.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool2021202220232024202520262021, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 104th-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2021, week 4 (4 games in): 1%, 108th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 5 (5 games in): 2%, 102nd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 6 (5 games in): 2%, 99th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 7 (6 games in): 2%, 97th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 8 (7 games in): 2%, 91st-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 9 (8 games in): 2%, 89th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 10 (9 games in): 2%, 89th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 11 (10 games in): 1%, 96th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 12 (11 games in): 1%, 92nd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 13 (12 games in): 1%, 80th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 80th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 80th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2022, week 3 (3 games in): 4%, 73rd-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2022, week 4 (4 games in): 3%, 83rd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 5 (5 games in): 2%, 94th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 6 (6 games in): 2%, 84th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 7 (7 games in): 3%, 82nd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 8 (8 games in): 2%, 83rd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 9 (8 games in): 2%, 82nd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 10 (9 games in): 2%, 89th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 11 (10 games in): 2%, 81st-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 12 (11 games in): 2%, 80th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 13 (12 games in): 2%, 72nd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 14 (12 games in): 2%, 72nd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 15 (12 games in): 2%, 72nd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2023, week 3 (3 games in): 2%, 86th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2023, week 4 (4 games in): 2%, 93rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 5 (5 games in): 2%, 92nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 6 (6 games in): 1%, 96th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 7 (7 games in): 1%, 91st-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 94th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 9 (8 games in): 1%, 98th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 10 (9 games in): 1%, 103rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 11 (10 games in): 1%, 100th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 12 (11 games in): 1%, 96th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 13 (12 games in): 1%, 98th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 98th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 98th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2024, week 3 (3 games in): 5%, 58th-hottest of 111 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (4 games in): 7%, 57th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (5 games in): 9%, 53rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (6 games in): 9.7%, 45th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (6 games in): 9.7%, 44th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): 8%, 47th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (8 games in): 8%, 44th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (8 games in): 8%, 46th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (9 games in): 7%, 52nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): 5%, 60th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): 4%, 61st-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): 4%, 53rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): 4%, 53rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): 4%, 53rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 3 (3 games in): 2%, 72nd-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 2%, 91st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (5 games in): 2%, 83rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (6 games in): 2%, 86th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (7 games in): 2%, 78th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 2%, 79th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 3%, 67th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (9 games in): 3%, 73rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (10 games in): 4%, 62nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 4%, 63rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 4%, 61st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 4%, 57th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 4%, 57th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 4%, 57th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 24%, 18th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (3 games in): 23%, 22nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (4 games in): 14%, 34th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (5 games in): 14%, 31st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): 19%, 25th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 14%, 31st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 14%, 31st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 14%, 28th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnowHottest: 2026, week 3▲ Year 6 · tenure, which this model overratesEvery season ended Cool, 2021–2025

Hottest: 2026, week 3 (24%, 18th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs that week). Top factor: ▲ Hotter Year 6 · tenure, which this model overrates

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    Year 6 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

  • ▲ Hotter
    3-5, outscoring opponents by 43
  • ▲ Hotter
    10-14 over his previous two seasons here

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 3-5 after 8 games
18% pushed out over results · of 379 coaches
Were in years 5-9, after 8 games
14% pushed out over results · of 700 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$22,930,000 USA Today estimate (Oct. 2025) — not a disclosed figure · 3.4× total pay · a large buyout, which lowers his chance of being let go · without it: 16%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

His week

Kansas Jayhawks · 29 views by Wednesday

Several stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from several outlets

Offense: 59th of 138 per play. Defense: 34th.

Offense, per play59thOffense, big plays9thDefense, per play34thDefense, points allowed per trip inside the 409thWorstBest
Offense, per play59th of 138Offense, big plays9th of 138Defense, per play34th of 138Defense, points allowed per trip inside the 409th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Kansas. The other two rows are where Kansas stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7vs. UCF (4-4)ESPN264%
  2. Sat Nov 14at West Virginia (5-3)67%
  3. Sat Nov 21vs. BYU (7-1)29%
  4. Sat Nov 28at Oklahoma State (5-3)47%

Percent: Kansas’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Kansas stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

66th74th81stPreseason75thLong Island University W 51-6Long Island University W 51-6W 51-6Long Island U…76thMissouri L 21-38Missouri L 21-38L 21-38Missouri75thArizona State L 17-24Arizona State L 17-24L 17-24Arizona State78thMiddle Tennessee W 55-0Middle Tennessee W 55-0W 55-0Middle Tennes…77thUtah L 24-41Utah L 24-41L 24-41Utah75thKansas State L 24-35Kansas State L 24-35L 24-35Kansas State72ndBaylor W 25-24Baylor W 25-24W 25-24Baylor72ndTCU L 16-22TCU L 16-22L 16-22TCU69th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1L 16-22 at TCU10 headlines · 44th of 138‘It stings’: Lance Leipold says Jayhawks ‘extremely dejected’ after loss at TCU Yahoo Sports
  2. Oct 19–25W 25-24 vs. Baylor6 headlines · 57th of 138Kansas football coach Lance Leipold reflects on team's win vs Baylor The Topeka Capital-Journal
  3. Oct 12–18L 24-35 at Kansas State11 headlines · 32nd of 138Did Sixth Straight K-State Loss Finally Spell the End for Lance Leipold at Kansas? Sports Illustrated
  4. Oct 5–11L 24-41 at Utah11 headlines · 35th of 138Everything Lance Leipold said after KU's loss at Utah 247Sports
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4W 55-0 vs. Middle Tennessee10 headlines · 44th of 138Everything Lance Leipold said after KU's win over Middle Tennessee 247Sports
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltNo game3 headlines · 68th of 138What Lance Leipold Wants Kansas to Improve During the Bye Week Yahoo Sports

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Kansas’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Offense carries it: 79th percentile offense, below the median defense at 33rd.

Kansas, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

B+
of which —79th
efficiency — 79th percentile success rate, 2021–25
B+76th
Standard-downs success
B+75th
Passing-downs success
A83rd
Trench push (line yards)
C+46th
Red-zone scoring rate
B68th
Power-success (short yardage)
B-57th
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

C-
of which —33rd
33rd percentile SP+ defense, 2021–25
B60th
Front-7 havoc
B67th
Secondary havoc
D20th
Stuff rate (run defense)
C+46th
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.