Major Applewhite

Head coach · South Alabama
3rd season · since 2024 · Houston before

At school15-18since 2024 · 4-4 this seasonHot seatWarm14% · 29th of 132 jobsLast gameL 20-35vs Louisiana Tech · Oct 31Nextat LouisianaSat Nov 7 · 5 pm ET
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

4-4, lost 2 straight, on track for 6-6 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianHoustonSouth AlabamaRiceRiceTroyTroyPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelHouston when he took over: 39.8 (National Program I), its final 2015 readingtook overHouston, 2016: 0-1, National Program IHouston, 2016: 0-1, National Program I20160-1Houston, 2017: 7-5, National Program I20177-5Houston, 2018: 8-5, National Program IHouston, 2018: 8-5, National Program I20188-5-2.3South Alabama when he took over: 17.3 (Regional Program III), its final 2023 readingtook overSouth Alabama, 2024: 7-6, Regional Program IIISouth Alabama, 2024: 7-6, Regional Program III20247-6South Alabama, 2025: 4-8, Regional Program III20254-8South Alabama, 2026: 4-4, Regional Program IIISouth Alabama, 2026: 4-4, Regional Program III20264-4+0.4best: 2016gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 1-3

Houston2016Las Vegas BowlL 10-342017Hawaii BowlL 27-332018Armed Forces BowlL 14-70South Alabama2024Salute to Veterans BowlW 30-23

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 20-35 vs. Louisiana Tech Sat Oct 31
  • This season4-4 lost 2 straight
  • Hot seat14% 29th of 132
  • On track for6-6 regular season
  • Nextat Louisiana Sat Nov 7
  • Stature97th of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • Playoff odds 0.1% → <0.1% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Win and he’s at 9%. Lose and he’s at 14%.

at Louisiana, Sat Nov 7, 5 pm ET ESPN+ · Louisiana is 5-3 · Applewhite vs. Michael Desormeaux: 1-1 · South Alabama’s chance to win: 19% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf South Alabama wins: 9%, 39th of 132Now: 14%If South Alabama loses: 14%, 27th of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If South Alabama wins: 9%, 39th of 132
  • Now: 14%
  • If South Alabama loses: 14%, 27th of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

14% chance he’s out after the season · 29th of 132 FBS head coaches · Warm

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow8% had they won8% had they wonLoss 14%Win 9%11%9%11%8%12%11%8%11%14%Pre1W vs. SE LouisianaW2L at TulaneL3W vs. OhioW4L at KentuckyL5W vs. UL MonroeW6W at Arkansas StateW7L at MarshallL8L vs. Louisiana TechL9Chance to win at Louisiana19%10Chance to win vs. Troy62%11Chance to win at Southern Miss57%12Chance to win vs. App State58%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow8% had they wonLoss 14%Win 9%11%14%Pre368912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 4-824%
  2. 5-717%
  3. 6-611%
  4. 7-57%
  5. 8-44%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now right where 2025 was at this point.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool2024202520262024, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 95th-hottest of 111 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (4 games in): <1%, 114th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (5 games in): 1%, 112th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (6 games in): 1%, 108th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (6 games in): 1%, 106th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 108th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (8 games in): <1%, 108th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (9 games in): 1%, 107th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (9 games in): 1%, 104th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): <1%, 107th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): <1%, 104th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 102nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 101st-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): <1%, 101st-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 3 (3 games in): 9%, 44th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 11%, 43rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (5 games in): 13%, 34th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (6 games in): 15%, 33rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 15%, 34th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 17%, 28th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 15%, 32nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (9 games in): 17%, 25th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): 17%, 25th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 15%, 30th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 13%, 32nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 12%, 32nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 12%, 32nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 12%, 33rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 8%, 49th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 12%, 41st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 11%, 40th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 8%, 48th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): 7%, 53rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 11%, 40th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 13%, 33rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 14%, 29th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnow

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    $1.8M buyout · 2.2× his pay, a multiple among the smallest in FBS — cheap to move on
  • ▲ Hotter
    11-14 over his previous two seasons here
  • ▲ Hotter
    4-4, outscoring opponents by 4

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 4-4 after 8 games
8% pushed out over results · of 504 coaches
Were in years 3-4, after 8 games
13% pushed out over results · of 754 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$1,844,267 reported, USA Today, Oct. 2025 · 2.2× total pay · a small buyout, which raises his chance of being let go · without it: 7%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

Offense: 47th of 138 per play. Defense: 127th.

Offense, per play47thRunning offense24thDefense, per play127thDefense, knocking offenses off schedule132ndWorstBest
Offense, per play47th of 138Running offense24th of 138Defense, per play127th of 138Defense, knocking offenses off schedule132nd of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is South Alabama. The other two rows are where South Alabama stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7at Louisiana (5-3)ESPN+19%
  2. Sat Nov 14vs. Troy (4-4)ESPN+62%
  3. Sat Nov 21at Southern Miss (3-5)57%
  4. Fri Nov 27vs. App State (5-3)ESPN+58%

Percent: South Alabama’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where South Alabama stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

90th96th102ndPreseason96thSE Louisiana W 39-14SE Louisiana W 39-14W 39-14SE Louisiana96thTulane L 24-28Tulane L 24-28L 24-28Tulane96thOhio W 41-36Ohio W 41-36W 41-36Ohio95thKentucky L 21-45Kentucky L 21-45L 21-45Kentucky96thUL Monroe W 52-35UL Monroe W 52-35W 52-35UL Monroe96thArkansas State W 56-49Arkansas State W 56-49W 56-49Arkansas State97thMarshall L 13-20Marshall L 13-20L 13-20Marshall97thLouisiana Tech L 20-35Louisiana Tech L 20-35L 20-35Louisiana Tech97th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1L 20-35 vs. Louisiana Tech0 headlines
  2. Oct 19–25L 13-20 at Marshall0 headlines
  3. Oct 12–18No game0 headlines
  4. Oct 5–11W 56-49 at Arkansas State0 headlines
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4W 52-35 vs. UL Monroe0 headlines
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 21-45 at Kentucky1 headline · 83rd of 138

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from South Alabama’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Poach watch

This winter

8%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled25th-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▲ Higher
    His 3rd season at South Alabama
  • ▲ Higher
    Age 48 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
  • ▼ Lower
    11-14 over his previous two seasons here
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.