cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Jonah Coleman /Washington

Jonah Coleman

RB · Washington · Sr · #1

On Trialas of 2026-06-22

Jonah Coleman is on trial in Washington's fan jury — the eye test against the résumé.

758RUSH YDS15RUSH TD156CARRIES

RUSHING VALUE · WEPA

+0.20

via your WEPA model · 2025 · 148 plays

Washington fans keep putting his case on trial, week to week.

high confidence6 sources

Minority viewA vocal minority sees it the other way.

Read the story so far

Jonah Coleman arrived as a 3-star prospect, the No.494 recruit nationally. He lines up at RB for Washington.

On the field, the headline is 758 rush yds, with 15 rush td.

Washington fans keep putting his case on trial, week to week.

The number to watch: +0.20 — rushing value · wepa.

Why nowHis 2026 case is being argued before a snap is played.
  • season totals
  • via your WEPA model · 2025 · 148 plays
  • throne-line + Filling-the-Shoes
  • compiled from tagged fan discourse

AI narrative · updated 2026-06-22 · compiled from CFB Zeitgeist data

2026 NFL DRAFTDrafted by Denver — Rd 4, Pick 8, #108 overall

Where He Ended Up · NFL

Denver2026 NFL rookie season

#108Rd 4 · Pick 8
Denver2026 NFL rookie season

RB · WASHINGTON · BIG TEN

Jonah Coleman

  • 4
  • #1
  • 5-9 | 228 lb
  • Stockton, CA

CFB Zeitgeist Score

73

Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by rush tds at the 97th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#66

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP RB AWARD

Doak Walker

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R07 · Impact starter

Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Aura™ · Him Watch the full board →
Hype = tape +3aura tax
Fans rank this player in the 83rd percentile of RBs; the tape says 80th — the discourse is fair.
Aura — fan perception83rd pctl
Production — on-field80th pctl
n=14 mentions · cohort: RBs · 140 qualified · perception = conversation volume, production = wepa_rushing

Career arc · Season-by-season Standing

4 seasons on the ladder

Peak: R09 All-Conference HM / 2nd team · 2024

2022

Arizona · RB

2023

Arizona · RB

2024

Washington · RB

R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team

Recognized

2025

Washington · RB

NFL Draft 2026 · Rd 4, Pick 8 · #108 overall · Denver

Development Trajectory · rushing yards

2022–2025
3722022
8712023
1,0532024
7582025

+104%

Up 104% from first season to most-recent.

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★
#494 national
CFB
College
2 teams
2022–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
R4 &middot; #108
Denver &middot; 2026

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionRB
Class4
Jersey1
Measurements5-9 | 228 lb
HometownStockton, CA
Primary teamWashington

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 494 recruit
Composite rating 0.8848 HighSchool
Signed with Arizona 2022
Origin Lincoln Stockton, CA, USA
Class Profile Context
2022 3-star | 0.8848 No. 494 recruit | HighSchool | Arizona

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 0 No portal entry on file
Latest destination -- --
Transfer stars -- CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility -- Transfer date TBD
Season Move Context
No transfer portal moves on file for this player.

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#66Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#81Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

Achievements

  • Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in receiving yards (354).

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to Arizona

Composite

0.8848

#494 national

NFL Draft

2026 · Rd 4, Pick 8

#108 overall · Denver

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Jonah Coleman

Fan sentiment ·

Belief Meter

58

Mixed Sentiment

Sample 6 mentions
Confidence LOW

Top Take

Trajectory

Cohort divergence mapbearishbullishheatedcalmOwn fans: 7 mentions · belief +8 · "The Texas Longhorns overhaul edtheir roster with bold transfer portal upgrades—h"Own fansRivals: 1 mentions · belief -100 · "Well I am back, and after a dose of reality last Saturday. We were smacked in th"RivalsNational: 14 mentions · belief +57 · "Washington's dynamic offense, fueled by Jonah Coleman, Demond Williams Jr. and D"National
  • Own fans · n=7
  • Rivals · n=1
  • National · n=14

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Jonah Coleman

Only 1 rival mention(s) — below the 4-mention floor for a defensible read.

2025 Signature · 2025 season

Yards per reception

11.4

yds

All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions

National rank #322 of 531
Percentile vs All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions 39th

Why it matters

#322 of 531 All FBS WRs at 11.4 yards per reception (31 catches).

Vs cohort

This player 11.4 (39th)

HIGH · n=31 cohort 531

  • Also strong
  • Receiving TDs#302 / 531
  • Receiving yards (total)#348 / 531

Signature Moment

Week 4 at Washington State — 104 ypr

Result W 59-24

The week the volume broke through — put up 104 yds at Washington State.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the rushing totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 12g
758Rush yards
156Carries
15Rush TDs
Per game
63.2Rush yards
13Carries
1Rush TDs
Projected (13g)
821.2Rush yards
169Carries
16Rush TDs

✓ Hit 750-yard season · finished with 758.

To hit 1,000-yard season (currently 758): needs 242/game over remaining 1.

To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 758): needs 742/game over remaining 1.

✓ Hit 10 rushing TDs · finished with 15.

✓ Hit 15 rushing TDs · finished with 15.

To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 15): needs 5/game over remaining 1.

Why this is more than a rushing profile

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Jonah Coleman is not a one-lane back. The profile is interesting because the workload spills beyond pure rushing volume: 758 rushing yards, 31 catches, and 57 return yards for Washington. That kind of all-purpose footprint gives the card a much richer story than a basic carry total.

Current place #66 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load 24.3% Overall usage share
Profile quirk Transfer path 0 portal moves

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

RB season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Scrimmage yards 1,112 758 rush | 354 rec | #73/735 (90th pct)
Rush TD 15 156 carries | #8/739 (99th pct)
Yards/carry 4.9 Per-rush efficiency | #305/735 (59th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Workhorse | Passing-game back against FBS RB peers.

WorkhorsePassing-game back

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Rushing

CAR
156 92nd
YDS
758 90th
YPC
4.9 59th
TD
15 99th

Receiving

REC
31 95th
YDS
354 98th
YPR
11.4 86th
TD
2 97th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 12 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppCARYDSAVGTDLONGNote
Wk 1W 38-21vs Colorado State241777.4238Season-high 177 yds
Wk 2W 70-10vs UC Davis151117.45185 rushing TDs
Wk 4W 59-24@ Washington State12594.9213
Wk 5L 6-24vs Ohio State13705.4034
Wk 6W 24-20@ Maryland18573.216
Wk 7W 38-19vs Rutgers14443.1115
Wk 8L 7-24@ Michigan16503.118
Wk 9W 42-25vs Illinois14755.4129
Wk 11L 10-13@ Wisconsin520.403
Wk 13W 48-14@ UCLA461.512
Wk 14L 14-26vs Oregon9222.409
BowlW 38-10vs Boise State12857.1125
Total1567584.31538
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2022Arizona5-7HC: Jedd Fisch · Pass-leaning
2023Arizona10-3HC: Jedd Fisch · Balanced
2024Washington6-7HC: Jedd Fisch · Balanced
2025Washington9-4HC: Jedd Fisch · Run-leaning
SeasonTeam
2025Washington1567584.915--
2024Washington1931,0535.510--
2023Arizona1288716.85--
2022Arizona753725.04--
Career4 loaded seasons5523,0545.534--
SeasonTeam
2025Washington3135411.42--
2024Washington231777.70--
2023Arizona2528311.31--
2022Arizona8243.00--
Career4 loaded seasons878389.63--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Rushing WEPA

Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.

Role share

How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Receiving work 31 354 rec yds | #31/552 (95th pct)
Usage 24.3% 38.6% rush share | #53/738 (93rd pct)
Rushing WEPA +0.20 Opponent-adjusted rush value | #58/362 (84th pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Rushing Rushing yards 758 #73/735 90th pct Volumevs FBS RB
Rushing Rush TD 15 #8/739 99th pct Scoringvs FBS RB
Rushing Yards / carry 4.9 #305/735 59th pct Efficiencyvs FBS RB
Receiving Receptions 31 #31/552 95th pct Volumevs FBS RB
Receiving Receiving yards 354 #12/548 98th pct Volumevs FBS RB
Value Rushing WEPA +0.20 #58/362 84th pct Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 148 weighted playsvs FBS RB
Usage Role share 24.3% #53/738 93rd pct Share of team offensevs FBS RB
Rushing Carries 156 #62/739 92nd pct Volumevs FBS RB
Rushing Rushing LONG 38 #244/733 67th pct Metricvs FBS RB
Receiving Receiving LONG 45 #55/540 90th pct Metricvs FBS RB
Receiving Yards / catch 11.4 #80/548 86th pct Efficiencyvs FBS RB
Receiving Receiving TD 2 #20/552 97th pct Scoringvs FBS RB
Returns Kick return yards 57 #93/200 54th pct Volumevs FBS RB
Returns Kick return avg 19.0 #93/199 54th pct Efficiencyvs FBS RB
Returns Kick returns 3 #85/206 59th pct Volumevs FBS RB
Usage Rush share 38.6% #70/738 91st pct Ground-game usagevs FBS RB
Usage 1st-down usage 28.9% #45/738 94th pct Early-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage Standard-down usage 28.5% #47/738 94th pct Base-situation sharevs FBS RB
Usage 2nd-down usage 23.0% #64/738 91st pct Middle-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage 3rd-down usage 15.8% #62/738 92nd pct Money-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage Passing-down usage 13.9% #90/738 88th pct Known-passing sharevs FBS RB
Usage Pass share 9.3% #38/738 95th pct Air-game usagevs FBS RB
Ball Security Fumbles lost 1 #78/256 70th pct Turnoversvs FBS RB

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 12 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

YDS/gYPCTD/g
Home7g83.45.51.4
Road5g34.82.61.0

Win vs Loss

YDS/gYPCTD/g
Wins8g76.85.01.8
Losses4g36.02.80.2

First half vs Second half

YDS/gYPCTD/g
Weeks 1-77g86.15.51.7
Weeks 8+5g31.02.60.6

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort

73Solid starter
8 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: rush tds (97th). Strength: rec yards (96th).

Rush TDs#8 / 349 · 97th pct
15rush
Rec yards#11 / 338 · 97th pct
354rece
Receptions#31 / 338 · 91st pct
31rece
Carries#62 / 349 · 82nd pct
156rush
Rush yards#73 / 349 · 79th pct
758rush
Yards / carry#171 / 349 · 49th pct
4.9rush
Fumbles lost#55 / 201 · 49th pct
1fumb
Long run#214 / 349 · 38th pct
38rush

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · RB · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

wepa_rushing0.2High (p75–p90) (n=178)

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 8 metrics
Jonah ColemanWashingtonLJ MartinBYU· 87% simJadan BaughFlorida· 87% simDean ConnorsHouston· 86% sim
Rush TDs
97
Coleman
94
Martin
84
Baugh
72
Connors
Rec yards
97
Coleman
93
Martin
86
Baugh
92
Connors
Receptions
91
Coleman
95
Martin
93
Baugh
94
Connors
Carries
82
Coleman
98
Martin
96
Baugh
93
Connors
Rush yards
79
Coleman
97
Martin
95
Baugh
88
Connors
Yards / carry
49
Coleman
71
Martin
65
Baugh
49
Connors
Fumbles lost
49
Coleman
49
Martin
49
Connors
Long run
38
Coleman
55
Martin
23
Baugh
64
Connors

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Power Back

Short-yardage and goal-line specialist. Carries the load, owns the red zone.

RB

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Cameron Skattebo’s 2023 season.

Cameron Skattebo

62%match

Arizona State · 2023

#2

Tyler Lavine

SMU · 2020

55%
#3

La'Damian Webb

South Alabama · 2022

All-Sun Belt
58%
#4

Nelson Smith

Navy · 2020

40%
#5

Tawee Walker

Oklahoma · 2023

53%

Matches Cameron on

Total rush EPA (college ability)
Weight
Receiving share

Differs from Cameron on

Rush TD rate (higher)
Height (lower)

Not enough data yet for this comparison.

As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Nicholas Singleton's senior season at Penn State (2025).

Nicholas Singleton

62%match

Penn State · 2025

All-Big TenNFL Rd 5
#2

Dylan McDuffie

Kansas · 2023

All-MAC
58%
#3

La'Vell Wright

Western Kentucky · 2025

61%
#4

Re'Mahn Davis

Kentucky · 2023

60%
#5

Isaac Guerendo

Louisville · 2023

NFL Rd 4
60%

Matches Nicholas on

Weight

Differs from Nicholas on

Recruiting rating (lower)
Height (lower)
Yards / reception (higher)

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Jedd Fisch

Pass share

44.9%

370 pass / 454 run

Plays / game

63.4

13 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

9.3%

268 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Run-leaning.

Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025

2 coaches
2022
Kalen DeBoer
Washington
2023
Kalen DeBoer
Washington
2024
Jedd Fisch
Washington
era →
2025
Jedd Fisch
Washington

Coaching transition mid-career: Kalen DeBoer → Jedd Fisch. Worth noting in scheme + development context.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownStockton, CA
Height5'9"
Weight228 lb
Class4
PositionRB
Jersey1

Trophy Case · Confirmed honors

What the selectors said

1 entries
🎖

ALL-CONFERENCE

All-Conf mention (2024)

All-Big Ten

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

All-Conference

1 all-conference honor

Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
2024 All-Big Ten all_conference Washington | Big Ten RB

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Washington RB4 #66 #81 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | Big Ten
2023 Arizona RB4 #89 #90 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | Pac-12
2022 Arizona RB4 #808 #1017 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | Pac-12

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Washington Big Ten RB 4 No. 1 | 5-9 | 228 lb | Stockton, CA
2024 Washington Big Ten RB 4 No. 1 | 5-9 | 228 lb | Stockton, CA
2023 Arizona Pac-12 RB 4 No. 1 | 5-9 | 228 lb | Stockton, CA
2022 Arizona Pac-12 RB 4 No. 1 | 5-9 | 228 lb | Stockton, CA