CFB Zeitgeist Score
62
Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by rush yards at the 73rd percentile.
Fluff Bothwell
Filling the Shoesas of 2026-06-22
Fluff Bothwell arrives at Mississippi State with a new fit to prove and an old chapter behind him.
677RUSH YDS6RUSH TD142CARRIES
PERCEPTION ABOVE TAPE · PCTL GAP
-20
perception vs production percentile · 2025
Read the story so far
AI narrative · updated 2026-06-22 · compiled from CFB Zeitgeist data
2026 Outlook
Returning to Mississippi State for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Running back · Mississippi State
Returning around him
- 42% of 2024 offensive production back (Moderate turnover)
- 2 Mississippi State players drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -13 net (27 in / 40 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Mississippi State · Last season: 5-8 · Talent rank #24 · 2026 recruiting class #28
RB · MISSISSIPPI STATE · SEC
Fluff Bothwell
- 2
- #24
- 5-10 | 230 lb
- Oneonta, AL
Heisman Heat
#3805
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
Mississippi State
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 3-star | 0.8256 | No. 2165 recruit | HighSchool | South Alabama |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | South Alabama -> Mississippi State | 4-star | 0.9100 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in rushing yards (677).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to South Alabama
Composite
0.8256
#2165 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Fluff Bothwell
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
75
Grounded Optimism
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=2
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Fluff Bothwell
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Rushing WEPA per carry
+0.110
EPA
P4 + Notre Dame RBs, min 80 carries
National rank #43 of 66
Percentile vs P4 + Notre Dame RBs, min 80 carries 35th
Why it matters
#43 of 66 P4 + Notre Dame RBs by rushing weighted- EPA per carry — +0.110 EPA/carry on 133 carries.
Vs cohort
This player +0.110 (35th)
HIGH · n=133 cohort 66
- Also strong
- Yards per carry#42 / 69
- Rushing yards (total)#32 / 69
Signature Moment
Week 5 vs Tennessee — 134 ypc
Result L 34-41
The week the volume broke through — put up 134 yds vs Tennessee.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the rushing totals stand
Through 11g
677Rush yards
142Carries
6Rush TDs
Per game
61.5Rush yards
13Carries
1Rush TDs
Projected (13g)
800.1Rush yards
168Carries
7Rush TDs
To hit 750-yard season (currently 677): needs 36.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 1,000-yard season (currently 677): needs 161.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 677): needs 411.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 10 rushing TDs (currently 6): needs 2/game over remaining 2.
To hit 15 rushing TDs (currently 6): needs 4.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 6): needs 7/game over remaining 2.
Why the honors trail matters
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
The useful clue on this card is not just the Heisman rank, but the broader honors spine. Fluff Bothwell already has 1 loaded recognition item, which helps distinguish a player who is merely productive from one who is already earning selector-level validation.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Workhorse | Passing-game back against FBS RB peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
142 90th
YDS
677 87th
YPC
4.8 56th
TD
6 89th
Receiving
REC
14 72nd
YDS
105 70th
YPR
7.5 58th
TD
0 70th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 11 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 34-17@ Southern Miss | 10 | 43 | 4.3 | 2 | 11 | |
| Wk 2 | W 24-20vs Arizona State | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 0 | 9 | |
| Wk 3 | W 63-0vs Alcorn State | 12 | 93 | 7.8 | 2 | 25 | |
| Wk 4 | W 38-10vs Northern Illinois | 17 | 101 | 5.9 | 0 | 22 | |
| Wk 5 | L 34-41vs Tennessee | 23 | 134 | 5.8 | 2 | 20 | Season-high 134 yds |
| Wk 6 | L 9-31@ Texas A&M | 14 | 60 | 4.3 | 0 | 13 | |
| Wk 10 | W 38-35@ Arkansas | 12 | 25 | 2.1 | 0 | 10 | |
| Wk 11 | L 21-41vs Georgia | 9 | 44 | 4.9 | 0 | 15 | |
| Wk 12 | L 27-49@ Missouri | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 | 10 | |
| Wk 14 | L 19-38vs Ole Miss | 17 | 80 | 4.7 | 0 | 43 | |
| Bowl | L 29-43vs Wake Forest | 14 | 38 | 2.7 | 0 | 15 | |
| Total | 142 | 677 | 4.6 | 6 | 43 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2025Mississippi State5-8HC: Jeff Lebby · Run-leaning
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Mississippi State | 142 | 677 | 4.8 | 6 | -- |
| Career | 1 loaded season | 142 | 677 | 4.8 | 6 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Mississippi State | 14 | 105 | 7.5 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 1 loaded season | 14 | 105 | 7.5 | 0 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 677 | #95/735 | 87th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 6 | #83/739 | 89th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 4.8 | #326/735 | 56th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receptions | 14 | #153/552 | 72nd pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 105 | #163/548 | 70th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.11 | #192/362 | 47th pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 133 weighted playsvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 20.9% | #79/738 | 89th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 142 | #78/739 | 90th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 43 | #211/733 | 71st pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 39 | #74/540 | 86th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 7.5 | #232/548 | 58th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 0 | #169/552 | 70th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 32.4% | #101/738 | 86th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 24.5% | #82/738 | 89th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 24.1% | #95/738 | 87th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 19.9% | #94/738 | 87th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 14.1% | #82/738 | 89th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 13.3% | #112/738 | 85th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 6.6% | #98/738 | 87th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 0 | #1/256 | 100th pct | Turnoversvs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 11 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 74.9 | 5.2 | 0.6 |
| Road4g | 38.2 | 3.7 | 0.5 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins5g | 59.2 | 4.9 | 0.8 |
| Losses6g | 63.5 | 4.4 | 0.3 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-77g | 71.9 | 5.0 | 0.9 |
| Weeks 8+4g | 43.5 | 4.0 | 0.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
62Solid starter
Elite: fumbles lost (86th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_rushing0.11Low (p25–p50) (n=178)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Fluff BothwellMississippi StateKamari MoultonIowa· 89% simTJ HardenSMU· 89% simJeremiah CobbAuburn· 86% sim
Fumbles lost
Carries
Rush yards
Rush TDs
Receptions
Rec yards
Long run
Yards / carry
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Workhorse
Built to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value.
RB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Bill Davis’s 2024 season.
Bill Davis
78%match
#2
Daniel Hishaw Jr.
66%
#3
Myles Bailey
66%
#4
Lee Beebe
64%
#5
Ikaika Ragsdale
63%
Matches Bill on
Total rush EPA (college ability)
Receiving share
Rush TD rate
Differs from Bill on
Class year (higher)
Height (higher)
Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to British Brooks’s path through North Carolina.
British Brooks
87%match
#2
Terion Stewart
All-MAC
84%
#3
Savion Red
84%
#4
Otis Anderson
80%
#5
Cameron Skattebo
79%
Matches British on
Yards per carry
Weight
Height
As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Bill Davis's sophomore season at Louisiana (2024).
Bill Davis
79%match
All-Sun Belt
#2
Kevin Harris
77%
#3
Lunch Winfield
64%
#4
CJ Wright
All-Sun Belt
67%
#5
Daelen Alexander
63%
Matches Bill on
Weight
Receiving share
Total rush EPA (college ability)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Jeff Lebby
Pass share
41.8%
390 pass / 543 run
Plays / game
71.8
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
12.7%
308 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2025
1 coach2025
Jeff Lebby
Mississippi State
Played his entire career under Jeff Lebby.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownOneonta, AL
Height5'10"
Weight230 lb
Class2
PositionRB
Jersey24
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamMississippi State
ConferenceSEC
Joined2025
Career arc2 season(s)
Trophy Case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
🎖
ALL-CONFERENCE
All-Conf mention (2024)
All-Sun Belt
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
1 all-conference honor
Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | All-Sun Belt | all_conference | South Alabama | Sun Belt | RB |
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | South Alabama | RB2 | #3805 | #3897 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Sun Belt |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Mississippi State | SEC | RB | 2 | No. 24 | 5-10 | 230 lb | Oneonta, AL |
| 2024 | South Alabama | Sun Belt | RB | 2 | No. 24 | 5-10 | 230 lb | Oneonta, AL |