cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Justin Smith-Brown /West Virginia

Justin Smith-Brown

WR · West Virginia · Sr · #11

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

117 REC YDS · 7 REC · 0 REC TD

IN PORTALIn transfer portal — destination TBD (from West Virginia)

In Portal · 2026

In transfer portal

2025West Virginia
DestinationTBD

WR · WEST VIRGINIA · BIG 12

Justin Smith-Brown

  • 4
  • #11
  • 5-11 | 185 lb
  • Port Saint John, FL

CFB Zeitgeist Score

31

Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by yards / catch at the 89th percentile.

Heisman Heat

Awaiting

Not on the live Heisman board this week.

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

TOP WR AWARD

Biletnikoff

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 1 · 2-deep

R04 · Rotational

Rotational. Earning real snaps in the rotation.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
No recruit profile
CFB
College
West Virginia
2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionWR
Class4
Jersey11
Measurements5-11 | 185 lb
HometownPort Saint John, FL
Primary teamWest Virginia

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree Not on file No matched recruiting profile in the loaded archive
Composite rating -- Composite rating unavailable for this player
Signed with -- Commitment history unavailable
Origin -- Hometown and high school unavailable
Class Profile Context
No recruiting profile is on file for this player.

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 2 Programs changed on file
Latest destination -- 2026
Transfer stars -- CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility Immediate Jan 17, 2026
Season Move Context
2026 West Virginia -> -- Immediate
2025 South Carolina State -> West Virginia 3-star | 0.8400 | Immediate

Heisman Lens

Where the model places this player relative to the rest of the Heisman field.

Current nowcast--Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast--Where the full season sim points
Win probability--Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability--Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability--Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Justin Smith-Brown

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Justin Smith-Brown

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the receiving totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 6g
117Rec yards
7Receptions
0Rec TDs
Per game
19.5Rec yards
1Receptions
0Rec TDs
Projected (13g)
253.5Rec yards
15Receptions
0Rec TDs

To hit 700-yard receiver (currently 117): needs 83.3/game over remaining 7.

To hit 1,000-yard receiver (currently 117): needs 126.1/game over remaining 7.

To hit 60-catch season (currently 7): needs 7.6/game over remaining 7.

To hit 80-catch season (currently 7): needs 10.4/game over remaining 7.

To hit 8 receiving TDs (currently 0): needs 1.1/game over remaining 7.

To hit 10 receiving TDs (currently 0): needs 1.4/game over remaining 7.

What made this player interesting

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Justin Smith-Brown's story is about how role and output meet each other. For West Virginia, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.

Current place -- -- win | -- finalist
Role load 2.7% Overall usage share
Profile quirk Development arc The card should explain why this profile stands out

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

WR season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Receptions 7 0 rec TD | #667/1110 (40th pct)
Receiving yards 117 16.7 per catch | #593/1107 (47th pct)
Scrimmage yards 107 Total offensive yardage | #593/1107 (47th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Big-play receiver against FBS receiving peers.

Big-play receiver

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Receiving

REC
7 40th
YDS
117 47th
YPR
16.7 85th
TD
0 45th

Rushing

CAR
1 35th
YDS
-10 3rd
YPC
-10.0 1st
TD
0 81st

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 6 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppRECYDSAVGTDLONGNote
Wk 1W 45-3vs Robert Morris
Wk 3W 31-24vs Pittsburgh15656.0056Season-high 56 yds
Wk 4L 10-41@ Kansas2199.5011
Wk 6L 24-38@ BYU144.004
Wk 8L 13-45@ UCF22713.5019
Wk 9L 17-23vs TCU11111.0011
Total711718.8056
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2025West Virginia4-8HC: Rich Rodriguez · Run-heavy
SeasonTeam
2025West Virginia711716.70--
Career1 loaded season711716.70--
SeasonTeam
2025West Virginia1-10------
Career1 loaded season1-10------
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Pass share

The player's share of a team's passing-game involvement. It is the fastest way to see whether the receiver is a true focal point or more of a complementary piece.

Role share

A blended workload view that accounts for catches, designed touches, and any return-game involvement that shapes the overall profile.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Usage 2.7% 6.5% pass-game share | #733/1137 (36th pct)
Return yards 0 0 return TD
Touchdowns 0 Across offense and returns | #615/1111 (45th pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Receiving Receptions 7 #667/1110 40th pct Volumevs FBS WR
Receiving Receiving yards 117 #593/1107 47th pct Volumevs FBS WR
Receiving Receiving TD 0 #615/1111 45th pct Scoringvs FBS WR
Receiving Yards / catch 16.7 #167/1106 85th pct Efficiencyvs FBS WR
Usage Pass share 6.5% #733/1137 36th pct Air-game usagevs FBS WR
Rushing Carries 1 #264/407 35th pct Volumevs FBS WR
Rushing Rush TD 0 #81/411 81st pct Scoringvs FBS WR
Rushing Rushing yards -10 #388/397 3rd pct Volumevs FBS WR
Rushing Yards / carry -10.0 #389/393 1st pct Efficiencyvs FBS WR
Receiving Receiving LONG 56 #205/1105 82nd pct Metricvs FBS WR
Usage 2nd-down usage 6.6% #338/1137 70th pct Middle-down loadvs FBS WR
Usage Passing-down usage 5.8% #617/1137 46th pct Known-passing sharevs FBS WR
Usage Role share 2.7% #834/1137 27th pct Share of team offensevs FBS WR
Usage Standard-down usage 1.5% #999/1137 12th pct Base-situation sharevs FBS WR
Usage 3rd-down usage 1.3% #922/1137 19th pct Money-down loadvs FBS WR
Usage 1st-down usage 0.6% #1013/1137 11th pct Early-down loadvs FBS WR
Usage Rush share 0.4% #312/1137 73rd pct Ground-game usagevs FBS WR
Ball Security Fumbles lost 0 #1/302 100th pct Turnoversvs FBS WR

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 6 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

REC/gYDS/gYPRTD/g
Home3g0.722.333.50.0
Road3g1.716.79.00.0

Win vs Loss

REC/gYDS/gYPRTD/g
Wins2g0.528.056.00.0
Losses4g1.515.29.50.0

First half vs Second half

REC/gYDS/gYPRTD/g
Weeks 1-74g1.019.823.20.0
Weeks 8+2g1.519.012.20.0

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the WR cohort

31Below cohort
8 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: yards / catch (88th). Strength: fumbles lost (80th). Concern: receptions (0th).

Yards / catch#62 / 558 · 89th pct
16.7rece
Fumbles lost#1 / 218 · 81st pct
0fumb
Long catch#183 / 558 · 67th pct
56rece
Rush TDs#67 / 287 · 39th pct
0rush
Rec TDs#482 / 558 · 7th pct
0rece
Rec yards#542 / 558 · 3rd pct
117rece
Rush yards#281 / 287 · 2nd pct
-10rush
Receptions#559 / 558 · 0th pct
7rece

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · WR · 2025

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 8 metrics
Justin Smith-BrownWest VirginiaHarrison Wallace IIIOle Miss· 47% simChris Dawn Jr.Texas State· 45% simQue'Sean BrownDuke· 45% sim
Yards / catch
89
Smith-Brown
78
III
80
Jr.
56
Brown
Fumbles lost
81
Smith-Brown
36
III
36
Jr.
36
Brown
Long catch
67
Smith-Brown
65
III
96
Jr.
83
Brown
Rush TDs
39
Smith-Brown
39
III
39
Jr.
39
Brown
Rec TDs
7
Smith-Brown
68
III
68
Jr.
78
Brown
Rec yards
3
Smith-Brown
94
III
96
Jr.
91
Brown
Rush yards
2
Smith-Brown
20
III
12
Jr.
1
Brown
Receptions
0
Smith-Brown
90
III
93
Jr.
92
Brown

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

DNA Match awaiting data — similarity scores compute once season stats clear the volume gate for this position cohort.

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Rich Rodriguez

Pass share

38.7%

327 pass / 517 run

Plays / game

70.3

12 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

10.7%

272 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Run-heavy.

Coaching Lineage · 2025

1 coach
2025
Rich Rodriguez
West Virginia

Played his entire career under Rich Rodriguez.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownPort Saint John, FL
Height5'11"
Weight185 lb
Class4
PositionWR
Jersey11

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
This player hasn’t appeared on a Heisman ballot tracked by the model.

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 West Virginia Big 12 WR 4 No. 11 | 5-11 | 185 lb | Port Saint John, FL