Justin Worley

QB · Tennessee 2014 · #14

Last confirmed: Tennessee, 2014. No 2026 box-score games on record.

6′4″ · Rock Hill, SC

Justin Worley: QB · Tennessee · #14.

Players he’s like

Closest statistical matches, adjusted for opponent strength.

Clayton ThorsonNorthwestern · 2018 · 78% season match
Ken SealsVanderbilt · 2020 · 77% season match
Luke FalkWashington State · 2014 · 68% season match
Cole StoudtClemson · 2014 · 64% season match
Sefo LiufauColorado · 2014 · 63% season match

Justin Worley

QB · Tennessee · #14

Keeps the offense on schedule and doesn't lose the game. One game to point at: 273 passing yards and 14 rushing yards against Utah State — Week 1, 2014.

How he plays

Play style

Consistent underneath passer who protects the lead. Rarely loses games; rarely wins them alone.

Checkdown vs gunslinger · 3rd-and-long

Where the completions actually land

58.8%Completion %

32.6%Conversion/dropback

30.0%Land short of sticks

1INTs

58.8% completion on 3rd-and-8+, but only 32.6% conversion-per-dropback — 30.0% of completions land short of the sticks.

Where completions land is fact — whether incompletions were aimed deep is intent, not recorded here, so this card counts completions only. checkdown by design

Short-yardage / goal-line · enumeration

Who gets the tough yard

2/21Inside-5 share

2 of the team's 21 inside-the-5 carries (9.5%).

News and fans

No outlet on our list has written about him by name this season.

Tennessee in the news

Tennessee names starting QBSports Illustrated Oct 21
SEC fines Tennessee $500K for field stormingBleacher Report Oct 19
Alabama center Racin Delgatty ruled out for Tennessee gameOct 17
Smokey statue damaged at Neyland StadiumKnoxville News Sentinel Oct 14

Where to follow him

Career stats

Swipe the table sideways for more columns.

Season	Team
2014	Tennessee	157	252	62.3%	1,579	6.3	12	8	124.3	34
Career		157	252	62.3%	1,579	6.3	12	8	124.3	34

Season	Team
2014	Tennessee	45	−105	−2.3	3
Career		45	−105	−2.3	3

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2014 season · 7 games

Box score · CFBD

Swipe the table sideways for more columns.

Wk	Opp	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA	QBR	Note
Wk 1	W 38-7vs Utah State	27/38	273	3	0	7.2	62.8	Season-high 273 yds
Wk 2	W 34-19vs Arkansas State	22/38	247	2	1	6.5	68.8
Wk 3	L 10-34@ No. 4 Oklahoma	21/44	201	1	2	4.6	9.6
Wk 5	L 32-35@ No. 12 Georgia	23/35	264	3	0	7.5	73.0	3 TD passes
Wk 6	L 9-10vs Florida	26/39	205	0	2	5.3	15.3
Wk 7	W 45-10vs Chattanooga	19/24	198	3	0	8.3	90.8	3 TD passes
Wk 8	L 3-34@ No. 3 Ole Miss	19/34	191	0	3	5.6	13.2	3 INTs — rough day
Total		157/252	1579	12	8	6.3	—

Signature game

Week 5 · 2014

L 32-35

at Georgia

264 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT · QBR 73.0

With M. Darr — 44.6 yards per punt · 8 punts · 4 inside the 20 · J. Hurd — 119 rush yds (24 car) · 1 TD · 3 rec · 19 yds

Signature plays

The plays that mattered most

Week 3 · Oklahoma · 3rd and 2 · Q4 · EPA −11.44Justin Worley pass intercepted for a TD Julian Wilson return for 100 yds for a TD, (Michael Hunnicutt KICK)
Week 6 · Florida · 1st and 10 · Q3 · EPA −4.46Justin Worley pass intercepted, touchback. Vernon Hargreaves return for no gain
Week 3 · Oklahoma · 2nd and 12 · Q2 · EPA +4.28Justin Worley pass complete to Josh Smith for 40 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)
Week 8 · Ole Miss · 1st and 10 · Q1 · EPA −4.03Justin Worley pass intercepted Mike Hilton return for no gain to the Miss 18
Week 2 · Arkansas State · 2nd and 10 · Q1 · EPA +3.87Justin Worley pass complete to Von Pearson for 56 yds to the ArkSt 8 for a
Week 3 · Oklahoma · 2nd and 10 · Q3 · EPA −3.81Justin Worley pass intercepted, touchback. Zack Sanchez return for no gain

4 more plays

Week 5 · Georgia · 3rd and 5 · Q4 · EPA +3.67Justin Worley pass complete to Pig Howard for 31 yds for a TD, (Two pt pass, Justin Worley pass to Daniel Helm GOOD)
Week 3 · Oklahoma · 3rd and 13 · Q1 · EPA +3.59Justin Worley pass complete to Pig Howard for 19 yds to the Okla 40 for a
Week 5 · Georgia · 2nd and 17 · Q4 · EPA +3.55Justin Worley pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 24 yds to the Geo 41 for a
Week 6 · Florida · 4th and 10 · Q4 · EPA +3.44Justin Worley pass complete to Pig Howard for 15 yds to the Fla 48 for a

Passing profile

Pass Profile · Completions by yards gained (PBP)

Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from

157/252 (62.3%) · 12 TD · 8 INT

245 of 252 attempts matched to play-by-play

Totals here are the box score's. Play-by-play lists 245 passing plays (151 completions) against the box score's 252 attempts (157 completions), and the depth buckets use play-by-play.

Adjusted ANY/A

4.52148 of 181 QBs

Sack rate

10.3%170 of 181 QBs

Sacked on 10.3% of dropbacks (170 of 181) and Adjusted ANY/A trails the field (148 of 181).

Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.

Short

0–9 yds

59%of completions

89 comp3.9 yds avg1 TD

Middle

10–19 yds

27%of completions

41 comp14.0 yds avg2 TD

Deep

20+ yds

14%of completions

21 comp27.3 yds avg3 TD

Overall 62.3% completion on 252 attempts · 21 deep completions averaging 27.3 yds.

Situational

Is he a different quarterback when it matters

Each situation vs his own 2014 baseline

+90

percentile points better on third down or later

BaselineThis situation

Down 1

-68 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 4/89 (4.5%) · league sack rate 4.8%

Down 2

-11 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 12/91 (13.2%) · league sack rate 5.3%

Down 3+

+90 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 13/78 (16.7%) · league sack rate 8.1%

Deltas are vs. this player’s own season baseline, never a league average. League sack rate by down is shown as context because sack attribution isn’t incompletion-denominated.

Teams and coaches

2014Tennessee7-6HC: Butch Jones · Run-leaning

Our ratings

Show the ratings

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

12 metrics · season cumulative

Concern: sack rate (5th percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

Explosive rate#109 / 163 · 33rd pct

8.6%

Interception rate#114 / 163 · 30th pct

3.3%

Success rate#140 / 163 · 14th pct

34.3%

EPA / dropback#147 / 163 · 10th pct

0.02

Sack rate#156 / 163 · 5th pct

10.6%

Box-score rates (7)

Completion %#43 / 157 · 72nd pct

62.3%

Rush TDs#62 / 157 · 54th pct

Interceptions#73 / 157 · 49th pct

Pass TDs#91 / 157 · 39th pct

Pass yards#109 / 157 · 31st pct

1579

Yards / att#123 / 157 · 20th pct

6.3

Rush yards#146 / 157 · 7th pct

-105

Season trend

EPA / dropback— first qualifying season

Success rate— first qualifying season

Explosive rate— first qualifying season

Sack rate— first qualifying season

Interception rate— first qualifying season

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Zeitgeist Passer Rating

2014 · our own passing-efficiency number, shown next to the 1979 formula it does not replace.

High confidence: 258 dropbacks

34Zeitgeist Passer Rating113th of 142 FBS QBs

NCAA passer rating 124.3 85th of 142 FBS QBs

ZPR ranks him 28 places lower than passer rating does: passer rating cannot see sacks, and he takes one on 11.2% of dropbacks.

Positive-play rate weight 24%

42.7%38th pct of FBS QBs

share of dropbacks that gained expected points · +3.2% schedule adj.

Yards per attempt weight 56%

6.7141th pct of FBS QBs

sacks excluded · +0.5 schedule adj.

Sack rate weight 21% (penalty)

10.5%2th pct of FBS QBs

the input passer rating cannot see · -0.7% schedule adj.

Opponent-adjusted; garbage time excluded (16 of 274 dropbacks dropped). 50 = FBS average; the number is pulled toward 50 when the sample is thin. How ZPR is built.

Splits

Home and road splits, scheme and staff

Splits · Per-game

2014 season · 7 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Home4g	231	2.0	6.8	0.8
Road3g	219	1.3	5.9	1.7

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Weeks 1-76g	231	2.0	6.6	0.8
Weeks 8+1g	191	0.0	5.6	3.0

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2014 season

Head Coach

Butch Jones

Pass share

46.5%

452 pass / 520 run

Plays / game

74.8

13 games

Scheme: Run-leaning.

Awards

Player standing · 2014

252 pass attempts and 45 carries in 7 games

More passes and runs a game than nearly every FBS quarterback who plays every week.

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