The Zeitgeist List · Rivalries

Victory Bell

North Carolina64-38-4Duke
National Program II#54 of 138–National Program II#51 of 138▲
See both programs’ full 91-year Zeitgeist History, side by side →
This year’s game — the live preview →

North Carolina leads the all-time series 64-38-4. They've met 106 times since 1922. North Carolina once took 13 straight.

Current season

Vegas win totals and transfer-portal swing right now, plus what fans are actually saying — not history, this year.

North Carolina
Transfer portal
-3
portal net points (weighted) · raw ledger: -47
What fans are saying · program direction
fans think the team needs to out-recruit its rivals for success
Exactly, which is why although we're better this year I'm not overly optimistic for the future. Not until we actually get some really good recruiting classes.
Verified verbatim
Duke
Win total
7.5
Vegas over/under
Transfer portal
-2
portal net points (weighted) · raw ledger: +5
What fans are saying · player performance
One fan believes Nate Sheppard has the best stats on the team
10 touchdowns in 4.25 games, Nate Sheppard is my goat
Verified verbatim

Stature & the series, 1922–2026

Both programs’ standing over time, each line named at its end, with every meeting beneath — read down to see who was bigger and who won. (Stature is each program’s season-by-season standing on the Zeitgeist List, 1936–present — one score blending on-field performance, program achievement, and roster talent.)

program stature over timeNorth CarolinaDukeevery meeting (bar height = margin; dark: North Carolina won, gray: Duke won)19401960198020002020

The identity war

Duke has been the more pass-heavy program more often than not.

Across 23 seasons of real play-level data (2004–2026), North Carolina led 11 and Duke led 12.

more passmore runNorth CarolinaDuke2004200620082010201220142016201820202022202420262009Duke 16.1 ptsNorth Carolina won 19-62024Duke 11.0 ptsDuke won 21-202005North Carolina 7.4 ptsNorth Carolina won 24-21
Source team_season_stats (CFBD season totals) · pass rate = passAttempts ÷ (passAttempts + rushingAttempts)

The biggest win was North Carolina by 50 in 1959. The biggest crowd, 62,000, was in 2013.

The coaching duels

James Hickey vs Bill Murray4-3
Bill Dooley vs Mike McGee5-1-1
Larry Fedora vs David Cutcliffe2-5
Raymond Wolf vs Wallace Wade2-4
Carl Snavely vs Wallace Wade4-1
Bill Dooley vs Tom Harp3-1

The draft ledger

Every NFL Draft pick either program has produced since the modern era began, decade by decade.

Draft picks
149-40
North Carolina leads
1st-rounders
24-5
Since
1967
First CFBD-carried draft class
North CarolinaDuke
1960s2-4
1970s11-10
1980s21-7
1990s37-2
2000s26-2
2010s33-5
2020s19-10

Best picks, either side

2017Mitchell Trubisky Quarterback · Chicago BearsRd 1, pick 2#2 overall
1981Lawrence Taylor Linebacker · New York GiantsRd 1, pick 2#2 overall
2002Julius Peppers Defensive End · Carolina PanthersRd 1, pick 2#2 overall
2024Drake Maye Quarterback · New England PatriotsRd 1, pick 3#3 overall
1975Ken Huff Offensive Guard · Baltimore ColtsRd 1, pick 3#3 overall
1987Mike Junkin Linebacker · Cleveland BrownsRd 1, pick 5#5 overall
2002Ryan Sims Defensive Tackle · Kansas City ChiefsRd 1, pick 6#6 overall
2019Daniel Jones Quarterback · New York GiantsRd 1, pick 6#6 overall

Recent meetings

Gate premium

Duke1.51×its own average home crowd
North Carolina1.15×its own average home crowd
2026North Carolina24-20
2025Duke32-25
2024Duke21-20
2023North Carolina47-45
2022North Carolina38-35
2021North Carolina38-7
2020North Carolina56-24
2019North Carolina20-17
2018Duke42-35
2017Duke27-17North Carolina — North Carolina routed by 10
2016Duke28-27North Carolina — North Carolina favored by 10.5
2015North Carolina66-31
2014North Carolina45-20Duke — Duke routed by 25
2013Duke27-25

Every meeting since 2018, play by play

Each line is North Carolina’s chance to win through that meeting. North Carolina is 3-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. The loudest meeting for fans was 2023: roaring. Fans of both teams were loud at once in 2022 and 2023. The bracket marks where.

2026North Carolina 24-20North Carolina won 24-20 at Duke. Chance to win started at 38%, low 24%, high 93%.Steady
2025Duke 32-25North Carolina lost 25-32 vs Duke. Chance to win started at 43%, low 4%, high 66%.Loud
2024Duke 21-20North Carolina lost 20-21 at Duke. Chance to win started at 52%, low 24%, high 98%.
2022North Carolina 38-35North Carolina won 38-35 at Duke. Chance to win started at 75%, low 18%, high 94%.Busy
2021North Carolina 38-7North Carolina won 38-7 vs Duke. Chance to win started at 91%, low 76%, high better than 99%.
2020North Carolina 56-24North Carolina won 56-24 at Duke. Chance to win started at 81%, low 80%, high better than 99%.
2019North Carolina 20-17North Carolina won 20-17 vs Duke. Chance to win started at 58%, low 22%, high 83%.
2018Duke 42-35North Carolina lost 35-42 at Duke. Chance to win started at 36%, low under 1%, high 57%.
“Way too much time, this is going to OT”
A Duke fan
Read a quote from each meeting
  • 2026
    “We would be pretty good if we had a quarterback”
    A North Carolina fan
  • 2025
    “That was my fav fake play of all-time. Just loved it.”
    A Duke fan

This season’s plays, North Carolina and Duke

Official highlights with our numbers, from the 6 plays on film when they met.

  1. Q4, 1:53 · North Carolina down 3, takes the leadJaylen McGill runs 24 yards for a touchdownNorth Carolina at Duke, week 7Q4, 1:53 · North Carolina 24, Duke 201:53Go-ahead touchdown for North Carolina with 1:53 left1:53Go-ahead touchdown for North Carolina with 1:53 leftGo-ahead touchdown for North Carolina with 1:53 leftJ.McGill rush left for 24 yards gain to the DUKE00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick goodWatch from this playESPN College Football
  2. Q4, 0:14 · Duke down 4Kenton Dopson III intercepts Walker EgetNorth Carolina at Duke, week 7Q4, 0:14 · Duke 20, North Carolina 24Duke turned it over with 0:14 left, trailing by 4Duke turned it over with 0:14 left, trailing by 4W.Eget pass intercepted by K.Dopson III at UNC15 QB hurried by X.Lewis, End Of PlayWatch from this playESPN College Football
  3. Q3, 3:57 · North Carolina up 7J. McGill fumbles and Duke recoversNorth Carolina at Duke, week 7Q3, 3:57 · North Carolina 17, Duke 10North Carolina turned it over in the red zoneNorth Carolina turned it over in the red zoneJ.McGill rush middle for 2 yards gain to the DUKE09 fumbled by J.McGill at DUKE09 forced by P.Smith-Young recovered by DUKE P.Smith-Young at DUKE09, End Of PlayWatch from this playESPN College Football
  4. Q1, 7:21 · North Carolina up 3Billy Edwards finds Jordan Shipp for a 5-yard touchdownNorth Carolina at Duke, week 7Q1, 7:21 · North Carolina 10, Duke 0▲9%North Carolina’s chance to win, 59% to 68%▲9%North Carolina’s chance to win, 59% to 68%B.Edwards Jr. pass complete short middle to J.Shipp caught at DUKE00, for 5 yards to the DUKE00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick goodWatch from this playESPN College Football
  5. Q2, 8:37 · Duke down 17Duke scores a touchdownNorth Carolina at Duke, week 7Q2, 8:37 · Duke 7, North Carolina 179Fumble return touchdown9Fumble return touchdownFumble return touchdownB.Edwards Jr. pass complete short left to J.Shipp caught at UNC10, for 4 yards to the UNC09 fumbled by J.Shipp at UNC08 forced by K.Loud recovered by DUKE A.Pellicciotta at UNC09 A.Pellicciotta return 9 yards to the UNC00 touchdown. The previous play is under automatic review - "Loose ball recovery". CALL UPHELD, kick goodWatch from this playESPN College Football
  6. Q2, 6:55 · North Carolina up 10Kevin O'Connor sacks Billy Edwards for a 6-yard lossNorth Carolina at Duke, week 7Q2, 6:55 · North Carolina 17, Duke 7▼2%North Carolina’s chance to win, 74% to 72%▼2%North Carolina’s chance to win, 74% to 72%B.Edwards Jr. sacked for loss of 6 yards to the UNC35 (K.O'Connor)Watch from this playESPN College Football

Meetings with their own story page

2 meetings in our archive, 2016 to 2022.