Next game
vs Southwest Minnesota State
Sat Oct 24 · 2 pm ET
Kirkeby-Over Stadium · series 4-0, won the last 4
Augustana (SD) 99% to win · our ratings after 7 games
Augustana (SD)
5-2Northern Sun · Kirkeby-Over Stadium · 6,500 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 10
W 55-0 at Concordia St. Paul
Our model gave Augustana (SD) 75% before kickoff
The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Minnesota State 26%, Wayne State (NE) 65%
Win out 12% · expect 2.6 of 4 more wins
Augustana (SD)'s chance to win each game left, from our model: Southwest Minnesota State 99%, Northern State 72%, Minnesota State 26%, Wayne State (NE) 65%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line vs Southwest Minnesota State · our model 99% Augustana (SD)
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 6
Schedule and results
Augustana (SD) · 2026 schedule and results5-2Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 48%.Our rank entering each game: #306 to #297
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 27 | #306 | #371 | — | @Missouri Western | W 63-58 | 1-0 | 0-0 | |
| 1 | Sep 3 | #306 | #289 | — | @Minnesota Duluth | L 23-30 | 1-1 | 0-1 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #309 | #337 | — | Minot State | W 38-33 | 2-1 | 1-1 | |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #312 | #327 | — | Minnesota St Moorhead | W 45-21 | 3-1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #309 | #301 | — | @Winona State | L 41-42 | 3-2 | 2-2 | |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #302 | #325 | — | Sioux Falls | W 37-20 | 4-2 | 3-2 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #297 | #379 | — | @Concordia St. Paul | W 55-0 | 5-2 | 4-2 | |
| 7 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | #295 | #425 | Southwest Minnesota State | 2 pm ET99% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #295 | #330 | @Northern State | 7 pm ET72% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Minnesota State | 1 pm ET26% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Wayne State (NE) | 2 pm ET | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Augustana (SD), through 7 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Augustana (SD): a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Augustana (SD) has won four of its last five.
6-4 over the last 10, and won the last two.
Streak W2Last 5 · 4-1Last 10 · 6-4
Range of outcomes · Augustana (SD) · 2026
Range of outcomes · Augustana (SD) · 2026Augustana (SD)’s most likely regular season is 8-3. 92% of outcomes land from 7-4 to 9-2.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
6 wins 8%; 7 wins 35%; 8 wins 45%; 9 wins 12%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor7-5Competitive but likely outside bracket contention.
Base9-3Conference title contender. Bracket bid realistic.
Ceiling10-2Deep playoff run. Program-defining year.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 7 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-2
Game feel72shootoutscombined pts / game1st highest-scoring of 14 in the Northern Sun
Heart rate2-2some dramain one-score games (4 of 7)5th most one-score games of 14 in the Northern Sun
Margin+14.0comfortableavg scoring margin2nd best margin of 14 in the Northern Sun
Measured from 7 games · ranks are among Northern Sun teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
Augustana (SD) enters the 2026 season at 5-2.
2026 Record5-2
Game day
The experience
Augustana (SD) is the Northern Sun program known for the vikings.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site