Next game
vs Winona State
Sat Oct 24 · 1 pm ET
Sea Foam Stadium · series 0-4, lost the last 4
Concordia St. Paul 24% to win · our ratings after 7 games
Concordia St. Paul
3-4Northern Sun · Sea Foam Stadium · 3,500 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 10
L 0-55 vs Augustana (SD)
Our model gave Concordia St. Paul 25% before kickoff
The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Wayne State (NE) 8%, Sioux Falls 21%, Winona State 24%
Win out <1% · expect 1.3 of 4 more wins
Concordia St. Paul's chance to win each game left, from our model: Winona State 24%, Wayne State (NE) 8%, Southwest Minnesota State 77%, Sioux Falls 21%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line vs Winona State · our model 24% Concordia St. Paul
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 6
Schedule and results
Concordia St. Paul · 2026 schedule and results3-4Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 46%.Our rank entering each game: #384 to #379
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 27 | #384 | #352 | — | Quincy | W 38-21 | 1-0 | 0-0 | |
| 1 | Sep 3 | #384 | #321 | — | @Minnesota St Moorhead | L 30-48 | 1-1 | 0-1 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #387 | #408 | — | University of Mary | L 10-13 | 1-2 | 0-2 | |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #387 | #341 | — | Bemidji State | W 34-31 | 2-2 | 1-2 | |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #388 | #327 | — | @Jamestown | W 31-23 | 3-2 | 2-2 | |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #375 | #276 | — | @Minnesota State | L 7-49 | 3-3 | 2-3 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #379 | #297 | — | Augustana (SD) | L 0-55 | 3-4 | 2-4 | |
| 7 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | #381 | #315 | Winona State | 1 pm ET24% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #380 | #305 | @Wayne State (NE) | 2 pm ET8% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | Southwest Minnesota State | 1 pm ET77% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Sioux Falls | 2 pm ET | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Concordia St. Paul, through 7 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Concordia St. Paul: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Concordia St. Paul has won two of its last five.
4-6 over the last 10, and lost the last two.
Streak L2Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 4-6
Range of outcomes · Concordia St. Paul · 2026
Range of outcomes · Concordia St. Paul · 2026Concordia St. Paul’s most likely regular season is 4-7. 94% of outcomes land from 3-8 to 5-6.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
3 wins 12%; 4 wins 51%; 5 wins 30%; 6 wins 6%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor3-9Rebuild year. Below .500.
Base5-7Mid-table finish.
Ceiling8-4Conference title race. Bracket qualifier in range.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 7 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 3-4
Game feel56shootoutscombined pts / game4th highest-scoring of 14 in the Northern Sun
Heart rate2-1some dramain one-score games (3 of 7)10th most one-score games of 14 in the Northern Sun
Margin-12.9outgunnedavg scoring margin12th best margin of 14 in the Northern Sun
Measured from 7 games · ranks are among Northern Sun teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
Concordia St. Paul enters the 2026 season at 3-4.
2026 Record3-4
Game day
The experience
Concordia St. Paul is the Northern Sun program known for the golden bears.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site