Next game
at Christopher Newport
Sat Oct 24 · 12 pm ET
TowneBank Stadium · series 0-1
Castleton 3% to win · our ratings after 6 games
Castleton
2-4New Jersey · Dave Wolk Stadium · 5,000 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
L 0-49 vs Salisbury
Our model gave Castleton 15% before kickoff
The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Christopher Newport 3%, Montclair State 8%, Kean 39%
Win out <1% · expect 1.3 of 4 more wins
Castleton's chance to win each game left, from our model: Christopher Newport 3%, Kean 39%, Montclair State 8%, William Paterson 81%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line at Christopher Newport · our model 3% Castleton
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
Castleton · 2026 schedule and results2-4Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 54%.Our rank entering each game: #652 to #624
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #652 | #612 | — | Westfield State | W 29-7 | 1-0 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #648 | #658 | — | @Norwich | L 10-17 | 1-1 | 0-0 | |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #650 | #665 | — | Maine Maritime | W 40-0 | 2-1 | 0-0 | |
| 4 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | #636 | #505 | — | @Rowan | L 0-79 | 2-2 | 0-1 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #633 | #554 | — | @The College of New Jersey | L 23-38 | 2-3 | 0-2 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #624 | #460 | — | Salisbury | L 0-49 | 2-4 | 0-3 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #624 | #499 | @Christopher Newport | 12 pm ET3% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #624 | #588 | Kean | 1 pm ET39% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Montclair State | 1 pm ET8% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | William Paterson | 12 pm ET | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Castleton, through 6 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Castleton: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Castleton has won one of its last five.
2-8 over the last 10, and lost the last three.
Streak L3Last 5 · 1-4Last 10 · 2-8
Range of outcomes · Castleton · 2026
Range of outcomes · Castleton · 2026Castleton’s most likely regular season is 3-7. 97% of outcomes land from 2-8 to 4-6.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
2 wins 10%; 3 wins 52%; 4 wins 34%; 5 wins 3%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor2-10Rebuild year. Below .500.
Base4-8Mid-table finish.
Ceiling7-5Conference title race. Bracket qualifier in range.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 6 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 2-4
Game feel49shootoutscombined pts / game1st highest-scoring of 8 in the New Jersey
Heart rate0-1some dramain one-score games (1 of 6)4th most one-score games of 8 in the New Jersey
Margin-14.7outgunnedavg scoring margin7th best margin of 8 in the New Jersey
Measured from 6 games · ranks are among New Jersey teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
The Spartans of Castleton in Vermont — the only public university in the state with varsity football, a young program born in 2009 that gave Vermont the college team it long lacked, playing at Dave Wolk Stadium.
Standard GapThe lone public-school football flag in Vermont, building a program…
Castleton is the only public university in all of Vermont with varsity football — and outsiders treat the Spartans like they don't belong on the field at all.
Game day
The experience
The Spartans of Castleton in Vermont — the only public university in the state with varsity football, a young program born in 2009 that gave Vermont the college team it long lacked, playing at Dave Wolk Stadium.
Playoff path
Castleton sits 6th in the New Jersey Conference and 178th of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — outside the at-large picture — the path runs through the conference title.
New Jersey · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christopher Newport | 3-0 | 6-0 | 72.6 |
| 2 | Rowan | 3-0 | 5-1 | 62.8 |
| 3 | Salisbury | 2-1 | 5-1 | 60.6 |
| 4 | Montclair State | 2-1 | 4-2 | 58.2 |
| 5 | The College of New Jersey | 2-1 | 3-3 | 48.2 |
| 6 | Vermont State Castleton | 0-3 | 2-4 | 42.4 |
| 7 | Kean | 0-3 | 1-4 | 40.4 |
| 8 | William Paterson | 0-3 | 0-6 | 31.3 |
42.4 CFB Zeitgeist#178 of 245 D350.0 strength of schedule
Win the New Jersey Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 2-4
Signature win 40-0 over Maine Maritime; toughest day 0-79 against Rowan.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site