Next game
at Salisbury
Sat Oct 24 · 1 pm ET
Sea Gull Stadium · series 0-4, lost the last 4
Montclair State 27% to win · our ratings after 6 games
Montclair State
4-2New Jersey · Sprague Field · 6,000 seats · averaging 5,133 in 2026
Last game · Sat Oct 17
L 14-21 vs Christopher Newport
Our model gave Montclair State 41% before kickoff
The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Salisbury 27%, Rowan 44%, The College of New Jersey 60%
Win out 7% · expect 2.2 of 4 more wins
Montclair State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Salisbury 27%, The College of New Jersey 60%, Vermont State Castleton 92%, Rowan 44%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line at Salisbury · our model 27% Montclair State
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
Montclair State · 2026 schedule and results4-2Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 54%.Our rank entering each game: #574 to #528
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 3 | #574 | #524 | — | Merchant Marine | L 24-41 | 0-1 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #577 | #540 | — | @Lycoming | W 30-28 | 1-1 | 0-0 | |
| 3 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 4 | Sep 26 | #572 | #513 | — | @Wilkes | W 26-9 | 2-1 | 0-0 | |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #551 | #601 | — | Kean | W 42-14 | 3-1 | 1-0 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #539 | #636 | — | William Paterson | W 42-0 | 4-1 | 2-0 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #528 | #506 | — | Christopher Newport | L 14-21 | 4-2 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #530 | #453 | @Salisbury | 1 pm ET27% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #530 | #541 | @The College of New Jersey | 12 pm ET60% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | Vermont State Castleton | 1 pm ET92% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 13 | @Rowan | 6 pm ET | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Montclair State, through 6 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Montclair State: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Montclair State has won four of its last five.
7-3 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Streak L1Last 5 · 4-1Last 10 · 7-3
Range of outcomes · Montclair State · 2026
Range of outcomes · Montclair State · 2026Montclair State’s most likely regular season is 6-4. 92% of outcomes land from 5-5 to 7-3.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 1%; 5 wins 18%; 6 wins 42%; 7 wins 31%; 8 wins 7%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor6-6Competitive but likely outside bracket contention.
Base8-4Conference title contender. Bracket bid realistic.
Ceiling10-2Deep playoff run. Program-defining year.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 6 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-2
Game feel48shootoutscombined pts / game2nd highest-scoring of 8 in the New Jersey
Heart rate1-1white-knucklein one-score games (2 of 6)2nd most one-score games of 8 in the New Jersey
Margin+10.8competitiveavg scoring margin4th best margin of 8 in the New Jersey
Home crowd5,133avg attendance1st biggest crowds of 1 in the New Jersey
Measured from 6 games · ranks are among New Jersey teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
The Red Hawks of Montclair, New Jersey, who won eleven New Jersey Athletic Conference titles and 260 games over the long Rick Giancola era at Sprague Field — a perennial power in one of Division III's toughest conferences.
Standard GapA program with a championship dynasty in its past, measured against…
Montclair State stacked eleven NJAC titles, but in a brutal conference with Rowan and others, the Red Hawks have to defend that legacy every year.
Game day
The experience
The Red Hawks of Montclair, New Jersey, who won eleven New Jersey Athletic Conference titles and 260 games over the long Rick Giancola era at Sprague Field — a perennial power in one of Division III's toughest conferences.
Playoff path
Montclair State sits 4th in the New Jersey Conference and 69th of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — outside the at-large picture — the path runs through the conference title.
New Jersey · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christopher Newport | 3-0 | 6-0 | 72.6 |
| 2 | Rowan | 3-0 | 5-1 | 62.8 |
| 3 | Salisbury | 2-1 | 5-1 | 60.6 |
| 4 | Montclair State | 2-1 | 4-2 | 58.2 |
| 5 | The College of New Jersey | 2-1 | 3-3 | 48.2 |
| 6 | Vermont State Castleton | 0-3 | 2-4 | 42.4 |
| 7 | Kean | 0-3 | 1-4 | 40.4 |
| 8 | William Paterson | 0-3 | 0-6 | 31.3 |
58.2 CFB Zeitgeist#69 of 245 D353.5 strength of schedule
Win the New Jersey Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 4-2
Signature win 42-0 over William Paterson; toughest day 24-41 against Merchant Marine.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site