Next game
at Bridgewater State
Sat Oct 31 · 12 pm ET
Edward C. Swenson Athletic Complex · series 0-4, lost the last 4
Fitchburg State University 1% to win · our ratings after 6 games
Fitchburg State University
1-5MSCAC · Elliot Field Athletic Complex · 1,200 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
L 6-34 vs Mass Maritime
Our model gave Fitchburg State University 16% before kickoff
The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Bridgewater State 1%, Westfield State 11%, Plymouth State 28%
Win out <1% · expect 0.4 of 3 more wins
Fitchburg State University's chance to win each game left, from our model: Bridgewater State 1%, Plymouth State 28%, Westfield State 11%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line at Bridgewater State · our model 1% Fitchburg State University
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
Fitchburg State University · 2026 schedule and results1-5Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 46%.Our rank entering each game: #614 to #634
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #614 | #667 | — | @Dean | W 35-26 | 1-0 | 1-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #621 | #498 | — | UMass Dartmouth | L 22-56 | 1-1 | 1-1 | |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #624 | — | — | @New England College | L 22-23 | 1-2 | 1-1 | |
| 4 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | #624 | #542 | — | @Framingham State | L 12-24 | 1-3 | 1-2 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #620 | #574 | — | Worcester State | L 14-34 | 1-4 | 1-3 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #634 | #558 | — | Mass Maritime | L 6-34 | 1-5 | 1-4 | |
| 8 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #637 | #505 | @Bridgewater State | 12 pm ET1% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | Plymouth State | 12 pm ET28% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Westfield State | 12 pm ET11% to win | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Fitchburg State University, through 6 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Fitchburg State University: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
What’s ahead
Off this week
7 days
until kickoff · at Bridgewater State · Sat Oct 31 · 12 pm ET
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Fitchburg State University has lost five straight.
1-9 over the last 10, and lost the last five.
Streak L5Last 5 · 0-5Last 10 · 1-9
Range of outcomes · Fitchburg State University · 2026
Range of outcomes · Fitchburg State University · 2026Fitchburg State University’s most likely regular season is 1-8. 97% of outcomes land from 1-8 to 2-7.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
1 wins 64%; 2 wins 33%; 3 wins 3%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor1-11Rebuild year. Below .500.
Base2-10Mid-table finish.
Ceiling5-7Conference title race. Bracket qualifier in range.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 6 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 1-5
Game feel51even gamescombined pts / game5th highest-scoring of 9 in the MSCAC
Heart rate0-1some dramain one-score games (1 of 6)6th most one-score games of 9 in the MSCAC
Margin-14.3outgunnedavg scoring margin8th best margin of 9 in the MSCAC
Measured from 6 games · ranks are among MSCAC teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
Fitchburg State is the Falcon rebuilding from the longest losing streak in college football history (30+ games, ended 1989) — a young program (founded 1984) that survived despair and is now climbing toward regional competence under new leadership.
Title DroughtSince 2005 · 21 yrs
Fans here believe fitchburg State is known outside Massachusetts only for the losing streak — '30 games, wow.' The chip is that nobody sees the Falcons as anything more than a historical punchline…
Game day
The experience
Fitchburg State is the Falcon rebuilding from the longest losing streak in college football history (30+ games, ended 1989) — a young program (founded 1984) that survived despair and is now climbing toward regional competence under new leadership.
Playoff path
Fitchburg State University sits 8th in the MSCAC and 219th of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — outside the at-large picture — the path runs through the conference title.
MSCAC · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mass Maritime | 4-0 | 5-0 | 60.1 |
| 2 | Bridgewater State | 4-1 | 5-1 | 61.5 |
| 3 | Westfield State | 3-1 | 3-2 | 52.0 |
| 4 | Worcester State | 3-2 | 3-4 | 45.7 |
| 5 | Framingham State | 2-2 | 3-2 | 54.8 |
| 6 | UMass Dartmouth | 2-2 | 2-3 | 47.7 |
| 7 | Plymouth State | 1-3 | 2-3 | 42.8 |
| 8 | Fitchburg State | 1-4 | 1-5 | 34.9 |
34.9 CFB Zeitgeist#219 of 245 D345.9 strength of schedule
Win the MSCAC for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 1-5
Signature win 35-26 over Dean; toughest day 22-56 against UMass Dartmouth.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site