Sacramento State

2-7

Next game: vs Toledo

Toledo’s best edge on Sacramento State is big plays

Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.

Sacramento State offense against Toledo defense

weakelite
PassingSacramento State 11th · Toledo 61st
RunningSacramento State 2nd · Toledo 90th
Staying on scheduleSacramento State 11th · Toledo 95th
Big playsSacramento State 3rd · Toledo 7th
Red zoneSacramento State 3rd · Toledo 47th

Toledo offense against Sacramento State defense

weakelite
PassingToledo 87th · Sacramento State 20th
RunningToledo 54th · Sacramento State 65th
Staying on scheduleToledo 61st · Sacramento State 70th
Big playsToledo 97th · Sacramento State 11th
Red zoneToledo 94th · Sacramento State 50th

Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.

Key stats

Key stats · 2026 · FBS rank

Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.

EPA / play135th of 138
-0.07
EPA allowed / play82nd of 138
+0.10
4th-down conv allowedTied 1st of 138
2
Forced three-and-out rateTied 3rd of 137
16.7%
1st-half EPA/play136th of 137
-0.1
Stuff rate136th of 137
26.3%
Points / game133rd of 138
17.0
All 98 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
2660295.6/gm4.57/play121st of 13866th of 7010th of 13
Opp
3274363.8/gm5.95/play108th of 13861st of 707th of 13
Rush yards
Team
968107.6/gm1.66/play117th of 13859th of 7011th of 13
Opp
1509167.7/gm2.74/playTied 117th of 13866th of 7011th of 13
Rush carries
Team
28231.3/gmTied 83rd of 138Tied 44th of 7010th of 13
Opp
31835.3/gmTied 114th of 13866th of 70Tied 8th of 13
Rush TDs
Team
60.7/gmTied 130th of 13869th of 70Tied 11th of 13
Opp
222.4/gmTied 133rd of 138Tied 68th of 7013th of 13
Net pass yards
Team
1692188.0/gm2.91/playTied 90th of 13857th of 70Tied 5th of 13
Opp
1765196.1/gm3.21/play76th of 13836th of 705th of 13
Pass attempts
Team
30033.3/gmTied 13th of 138Tied 7th of 702nd of 13
Opp
23225.8/gmTied 46th of 13819th of 703rd of 13
Completions
Team
16918.8/gmTied 41st of 138Tied 23rd of 704th of 13
Opp
14616.2/gmTied 59th of 138Tied 26th of 705th of 13
Pass TDs
Team
91.0/gmTied 108th of 138Tied 62nd of 70Tied 10th of 13
Opp
111.2/gmTied 58th of 138Tied 31st of 70Tied 3rd of 13
Passer rating
Team
110.3110.3133rd of 13870th of 7011th of 13
Opp
136.4136.488th of 13748th of 707th of 13
Interceptions thrown
Team
70.8/gmTied 89th of 138Tied 46th of 7010th of 13
Opp
50.6/gmTied 79th of 138Tied 40th of 70Tied 5th of 13
Sacks (def)
Team
111.2/gmTied 111th of 138Tied 61st of 7012th of 13
Opp
182.0/gmTied 95th of 138Tied 49th of 709th of 13
Tackles for loss
Team
343.8/gmTied 116th of 138Tied 61st of 7010th of 13
Opp
485.3/gmTied 105th of 138Tied 54th of 70Tied 7th of 13
First downs
Team
15817.6/gmTied 94th of 13858th of 708th of 13
Opp
17919.9/gmTied 120th of 13864th of 709th of 13
3rd-down conv
Team
424.7/gmTied 75th of 138Tied 40th of 709th of 13
Opp
424.7/gmTied 61st of 138Tied 36th of 70Tied 4th of 13
3rd-down att
Team
12714.1/gm9th of 1383rd of 704th of 13
Opp
10511.7/gmTied 43rd of 138Tied 20th of 705th of 13
4th-down conv
Team
80.9/gmTied 59th of 138Tied 29th of 70Tied 5th of 13
Opp
20.2/gmTied 1st of 138Tied 1st of 701st of 13
4th-down att
Team
182.0/gmTied 33rd of 138Tied 15th of 704th of 13
Opp
80.9/gmTied 5th of 138Tied 3rd of 701st of 13
Time of possession
Team
267:2029:42/gmTied 21st of 138Tied 7th of 709th of 13
Opp
272:4030:18/gm128th of 13868th of 7012th of 13

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats · 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
Pocket Passer · -0.05 EPA/play88137 / 24456.113745.686109.41824.44.64.3
-0.19 EPA/play17125 / 4654.32224.80190.52927.7——
-0.88 EPA/play647 / 1070999.910186.2—16.1——
Running backs
Player#GCarYdsAvgTDLongStuff%10+%
Balanced Back · +0.01 EPA/play229774105.333713.010.4
Workhorse · +0.05 EPA/play—8512655.2122——
Balanced Back · -0.04 EPA/play38421944.6040——
-0.23 EPA/play17351032.9118——
Receivers
Player#GRecYdsAvgTDLong
Slot Technician · +0.20 EPA/play2941492125
#39 FBS		63
Slot Technician · +0.06 EPA/play1293539011.1136
Slot Technician · +0.13 EPA/play9—383769.9248
Possession Receiver · +0.14 EPA/play59242189.1020
+1.25 EPA/play104916318.1265
Complete TE · +0.04 EPA/play165151228.1022
-0.12 EPA/play4357915.8138
+0.07 EPA/play8256406.7011

Biggest plays from Sacramento State’s games

Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Sacramento State’s games this season, whoever made them.

  1. Q1, 7:25 · Kent State tiedDru Deshields finds Wayne Harris for a 92-yard touchdownKent State at Sacramento State, week 9Q1, 7:25 · Kent State 7, Sacramento State 09292-yard touchdown pass9292-yard touchdown pass92-yard touchdown passD.DeShields pass complete deep right to W.Harris caught at Kent50, for 92 yards to the SAC00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick goodWatch from this playESPN College Football
  2. Q4, 9:04 · Sacramento State up 7Donovan Turner takes an interception 38 yards for a pick-sixKent State at Sacramento State, week 9Q4, 9:04 · Sacramento State 24, Kent State 1038Pick-six38Pick-sixPick-sixD.DeShields pass intercepted by D.Turner at Kent38 D.Turner return 38 yards to the Kent00 touchdown, kick goodWatch from this playESPN College Football
  3. Q2, 3:25 · Kent State up 1B. White fumbles and Sacramento State recoversKent State at Sacramento State, week 9Q2, 3:25 · Kent State 7, Sacramento State 6▼8%Kent State’s chance to win, 68% to 60%▼8%Kent State’s chance to win, 68% to 60%D.DeShields pass complete short left to B.White caught at Kent49, for 0 yards to the SAC48 fumbled by B.White at SAC48 forced by F.Puloka recovered by SAC B.Silvera at SAC48 B.Silvera return 6 yards to the Kent46 (M.Daoud)Watch from this playESPN College Football
  4. Q4, 1:55 · Kent State down 21Malikai Nichols intercepts Nolan GoodKent State at Sacramento State, week 9Q4, 1:55 · Kent State 10, Sacramento State 31Kent State turned it over in the red zoneKent State turned it over in the red zoneN.Good pass intercepted by M.Nichols at SAC00, Touchback. The previous play is under automatic review - "Interception". CALL UPHELDWatch from this playESPN College Football
  5. Q3, 3:38 · Kent State up 1Miles Bailey sacks Dru Deshields for a 4-yard lossKent State at Sacramento State, week 9Q3, 3:38 · Kent State 10, Sacramento State 9▼2%Kent State’s chance to win, 64% to 62%▼2%Kent State’s chance to win, 64% to 62%D.DeShields sacked for loss of 4 yards to the Kent16 (M.Bailey)Watch from this playESPN College Football
  6. Q4, 2:55 · Sacramento State up 14Isaiah Ene runs 5 yards for a touchdownKent State at Sacramento State, week 9Q4, 2:55 · Sacramento State 31, Kent State 10Sacramento State made it a three-score game with 2:55 leftSacramento State made it a three-score game with 2:55 leftI.Ene rush right for 5 yards gain to the Kent00 touchdown, kick goodWatch from this playESPN College Football

All 7 plays from Sacramento State’s games

How scary each game got

Sacramento State lost to North Dakota State after being 87% to win; the closest win was against Kent State, down to 28%

50%L1W1L2L3L4L6L7L8W9

Tap a game for its score and win chances.

Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Sacramento State during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.

Stat leaders

2026 stat leaders · Sacramento State

through 9 games

Boogsie Silvera leads Sacramento State with 71 tackles through 9 games.

1. Boogsie Silvera S 71 tackles
2. Matthew Coleman WR 492 receiving yards
3. Amari Wallace S 41 tackles
4. Jackson Sharman QB 1,374 passing yards
5. Fata Puloka LB 33 tackles

Roster

Roster

2026
32 players carry a qualified CFB Zeitgeist Score this season so far.
Boogsie Silvera S #11 of 537
Matthew Coleman WR #80 of 465
Josh Cashiola EDGE #78 of 405
Malachi Kindle IDL #90 of 300
Damien McDaniel WR #156 of 465
Onterrio Smith Jr. WR #162 of 465

+26 more

Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back

How they play

How they play · 2026

Sacramento State fields a struggling pass-first offense behind a leaky defense, though it gives up the big play.

Offense
3rd pct EPA/play
Run/Pass
54% pass plays
Defense
41st pct EPA allowed
Defensive shape
11th pct at limiting explosive plays

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

Player percentiles

Player percentiles · Sacramento State · 2026

Sacramento State reads strongest in success rate allowed (top 31%) and rushing EPA allowed (top 36%); the crux lives in rushing EPA, where Sacramento State sits at the 1st percentile.

Offense · strengths lead

EPA / play -0.07
3rd
Success rate +0.37
11th
Explosive plays +1.10
3rd
Rushing EPA -0.15
2nd
Red-zone finish +2.35
3rd

Defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA allowed +0.10
41st
Success rate allowed +0.38
70th
Explosive plays allowed +1.37
11th
Passing EPA allowed +0.28
20th
Red-zone defense +3.44
50th

Hidden math · special situations

Field position (O) +28.97
40th
Passing EPA +0.02
11th
Rushing EPA allowed -0.01
65th
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 9 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 138 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents

Sacramento State is worth −2.9 points more at home than on the road.

Bottom tenth of FBS, 0th percentile of 133 programs

25% at home, 15% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (1-3 home, 2-11 away). Interval ±12.3.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest
95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest
The stadium and how the home edge is measured

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Sacramento State has beaten the number by −3.0 more at home than away over 61 games. That is inside the ±7.6 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.

Hornet Stadium seats 21,195 and has averaged 69% full (14,668, 16 games reported). Visitors face the 15th-longest trip of 135 FBS venues: a median 686 miles since 2018. The map isn't translating, though — the split above still reads bottom tenth of fbs. For the home side it is genuinely home ground: 34% of the 2026 roster (55 of 164 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across 43 of 45 home games since 2018.

Home1-3Away2-11Edge−2.9 ±12.3Visitor trip686 mi

More in this tab

How they play

Position battlesReps are split — here's who's actually winning them.

RB room

The carries are split. The job isn’t.

Isaiah Ene and Daniel Swinney split the carries (76/125 vs 49/125) -- but the job isn't split the same way.

Isaiah EneDaniel Swinney
Carries
7649
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
Targets
14/184/18
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-carry share
38.0%34.0%
concentration alone -- EPA/carry doesn't corroborate, read with caution
Screened 2 claims, 0 survived, 2 falsified

WR/TE room

The targets are split. The job isn’t.

Onterrio Smith Jr. (WR) and Jordan Williams (TE) split the targets (69/92 vs 23/92) -- but the job isn't split the same way.

Onterrio Smith Jr.Jordan Williams
Targets
6923
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
3rd-down targets
14/195/19
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Garbage-time share
26/315/31
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-catch share
29.4%60.7%
concentration alone -- EPA/target doesn't corroborate, read with caution
Screened 3 claims, 0 survived, 3 falsified
Scheme claimsFive specific, testable claims about how this team plays.

Sacramento State’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time

Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 22nd percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 0th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.

league medianRaw 4th quarter · 22nd…Competitive snaps only · 0th pctileWorst in FBSBest in FBS
Source CFB Zeitgeist · CFBD play-by-play, garbage-time adjusted by pre-play margin

Standard downs vs. passing downs

Does Sacramento State hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?

13th percentile success on standard downs, 6th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.

Fragile off scheduleBalanced, both workStruggles even on scheduleStandard-downs reliantSacramento StateWeak on standard downsElite on standard downsFalls apart off scheduleHolds up off scheduleHawai'i48th standard · 29th passingUNLV41st standard · 19th passingStanford40th standard · 9th passingEastern Michigan16th standard · 30th passingSan José State17th standard · 2nd passingNew Mexico State14th standard · 36th passingSacramento State13th standard · 6th passingOklahoma State96th standard · 86th passingDuke21st standard · 67th passingFlorida State30th standard · 90th passingRutgers42nd standard · 81st passingKansas52nd standard · 18th passingBoston College63rd standard · 28th passingNorfolk State7th standard · 0th passingLouisville95th standard · 72nd passingMissouri34th standard · 41st passingMemphis92nd standard · 93rd passingGeorgia Southern60th standard · 71st passingOle Miss81st standard · 94th passingJacksonville State82nd standard · 80th passingNorth Dakota State30th standard · 45th passingArizona76th standard · 94th passingUSC79th standard · 97th passingWake Forest75th standard · 96th passingTCU70th standard · 10th passingDelaware59th standard · 64th passingUAB24th standard · 62nd passingMichigan State23rd standard · 55th passingSouth Florida84th standard · 57th passingFlorida International20th standard · 53rd passingNavy89th standard · 17th passingWisconsin25th standard · 22nd passingOregon State97th standard · 70th passingSyracuse57th standard · 39th passingOhio State84th standard · 80th passingBall State31st standard · 52nd passingPittsburgh65th standard · 50th passingColorado16th standard · 65th passingGeorgia Tech53rd standard · 40th passingAuburn14th standard · 69th passingBaylor15th standard · 46th passingNorth Texas95th standard · 84th passingApp State33rd standard · 49th passingIowa State18th standard · 31st passingUTSA91st standard · 33rd passingArkansas71st standard · 24th passingBoise State77th standard · 92nd passingOregon39th standard · 26th passingTulsa49th standard · 7th passingTulane12th standard · 8th passingPurdue57th standard · 82nd passingMiddle Tennessee27th standard · 64th passingVanderbilt41st standard · 32nd passingSan Diego State8th standard · 54th passingLSU86th standard · 98th passingClemson7th standard · 39th passingCentral Michigan36th standard · 9th passingTexas Tech64th standard · 76th passingMichigan10th standard · 89th passingWestern Michigan32nd standard · 27th passingOhio82nd standard · 42nd passingBuffalo9th standard · 11th passingTexas27th standard · 61st passingCoastal Carolina23rd standard · 64th passingColorado State66th standard · 95th passingWyoming78th standard · 48th passingTexas A&M46th standard · 55th passingLiberty93rd standard · 78th passingFlorida Atlantic67th standard · 87th passingLouisiana36th standard · 66th passingSouth Alabama44th standard · 74th passingTroy39th standard · 15th passingSam Houston11th standard · 37th passingNevada28th standard · 27th passingWestern Kentucky22nd standard · 25th passingWashington State19th standard · 5th passingWashington56th standard · 16th passingCalifornia11th standard · 20th passingCharlotte18th standard · 41st passingTennessee75th standard · 12th passingUtah State3rd standard · 76th passingMiami99th standard · 95th passingHouston87th standard · 99th passingUCF29th standard · 45th passingUtah94th standard · 98th passingFresno State25th standard · 84th passingAkron58th standard · 34th passingNorth Carolina89th standard · 73rd passingIllinois73rd standard · 91st passingToledo73rd standard · 52nd passingMinnesota32nd standard · 4th passingRice59th standard · 14th passingTemple50th standard · 68th passingNC State62nd standard · 77th passingVirginia83rd standard · 2nd passingNotre Dame100th standard · 43rd passingMassachusetts35th standard · 38th passingKent State5th standard · 21st passingSouth Carolina70th standard · 56th passingMiami (OH)50th standard · 43rd passingKennesaw State61st standard · 16th passingCincinnati68th standard · 83rd passingIndiana55th standard · 44th passingMaine0th standard · 86th passingNorthern Illinois51st standard · 14th passingBowling Green43rd standard · 21st passingGeorgia State68th standard · 66th passingSouthern Miss48th standard · 7th passingKansas State64th standard · 68th passingUConn72nd standard · 73rd passingAlabama77th standard · 57th passingEast Carolina37th standard · 19th passingOld Dominion1st standard · 36th passingOklahoma4th standard · 50th passingUTEP9th standard · 1st passingNorthwestern88th standard · 88th passingVirginia Tech43rd standard · 91st passingMaryland34th standard · 26th passingArizona State38th standard · 61st passingNew Mexico55th standard · 48th passingNebraska46th standard · 85th passingMarshall69th standard · 32nd passingArkansas State85th standard · 59th passingSMU91st standard · 82nd passingJames Madison45th standard · 77th passingTexas State74th standard · 100th passingMississippi State66th standard · 59th passingUL Monroe47th standard · 11th passingMissouri State52nd standard · 30th passingWest Virginia54th standard · 75th passingLouisiana Tech26th standard · 79th passingUCLA80th standard · 60th passingKentucky90th standard · 51st passingFlorida61st standard · 70th passingUT Martin6th standard · 3rd passingArmy93rd standard · 58th passingMercyhurst2nd standard · 34th passingIowa79th standard · 13th passingPenn State20th standard · 47th passingAir Force98th standard · 23rd passingRobert Morris2nd standard · 5th passingGardner-Webb5th standard · 23rd passingGeorgia98th standard · 89th passingBYU86th standard · 35th passing
Fragile off scheduleBalancedWeak both waysStandard downs onlySacramento StateWeak on standard downsElite on standard downsFalls apart off scheduleHolds up off scheduleHawai'i48th standard · 29th passingUNLV41st standard · 19th passingStanford40th standard · 9th passingEastern Michigan16th standard · 30th passingSan José State17th standard · 2nd passingNew Mexico State14th standard · 36th passingSacramento State13th standard · 6th passingOklahoma State96th standard · 86th passingDuke21st standard · 67th passingFlorida State30th standard · 90th passingRutgers42nd standard · 81st passingKansas52nd standard · 18th passingBoston College63rd standard · 28th passingNorfolk State7th standard · 0th passingLouisville95th standard · 72nd passingMissouri34th standard · 41st passingMemphis92nd standard · 93rd passingGeorgia Southern60th standard · 71st passingOle Miss81st standard · 94th passingJacksonville State82nd standard · 80th passingNorth Dakota State30th standard · 45th passingArizona76th standard · 94th passingUSC79th standard · 97th passingWake Forest75th standard · 96th passingTCU70th standard · 10th passingDelaware59th standard · 64th passingUAB24th standard · 62nd passingMichigan State23rd standard · 55th passingSouth Florida84th standard · 57th passingFlorida International20th standard · 53rd passingNavy89th standard · 17th passingWisconsin25th standard · 22nd passingOregon State97th standard · 70th passingSyracuse57th standard · 39th passingOhio State84th standard · 80th passingBall State31st standard · 52nd passingPittsburgh65th standard · 50th passingColorado16th standard · 65th passingGeorgia Tech53rd standard · 40th passingAuburn14th standard · 69th passingBaylor15th standard · 46th passingNorth Texas95th standard · 84th passingApp State33rd standard · 49th passingIowa State18th standard · 31st passingUTSA91st standard · 33rd passingArkansas71st standard · 24th passingBoise State77th standard · 92nd passingOregon39th standard · 26th passingTulsa49th standard · 7th passingTulane12th standard · 8th passingPurdue57th standard · 82nd passingMiddle Tennessee27th standard · 64th passingVanderbilt41st standard · 32nd passingSan Diego State8th standard · 54th passingLSU86th standard · 98th passingClemson7th standard · 39th passingCentral Michigan36th standard · 9th passingTexas Tech64th standard · 76th passingMichigan10th standard · 89th passingWestern Michigan32nd standard · 27th passingOhio82nd standard · 42nd passingBuffalo9th standard · 11th passingTexas27th standard · 61st passingCoastal Carolina23rd standard · 64th passingColorado State66th standard · 95th passingWyoming78th standard · 48th passingTexas A&M46th standard · 55th passingLiberty93rd standard · 78th passingFlorida Atlantic67th standard · 87th passingLouisiana36th standard · 66th passingSouth Alabama44th standard · 74th passingTroy39th standard · 15th passingSam Houston11th standard · 37th passingNevada28th standard · 27th passingWestern Kentucky22nd standard · 25th passingWashington State19th standard · 5th passingWashington56th standard · 16th passingCalifornia11th standard · 20th passingCharlotte18th standard · 41st passingTennessee75th standard · 12th passingUtah State3rd standard · 76th passingMiami99th standard · 95th passingHouston87th standard · 99th passingUCF29th standard · 45th passingUtah94th standard · 98th passingFresno State25th standard · 84th passingAkron58th standard · 34th passingNorth Carolina89th standard · 73rd passingIllinois73rd standard · 91st passingToledo73rd standard · 52nd passingMinnesota32nd standard · 4th passingRice59th standard · 14th passingTemple50th standard · 68th passingNC State62nd standard · 77th passingVirginia83rd standard · 2nd passingNotre Dame100th standard · 43rd passingMassachusetts35th standard · 38th passingKent State5th standard · 21st passingSouth Carolina70th standard · 56th passingMiami (OH)50th standard · 43rd passingKennesaw State61st standard · 16th passingCincinnati68th standard · 83rd passingIndiana55th standard · 44th passingMaine0th standard · 86th passingNorthern Illinois51st standard · 14th passingBowling Green43rd standard · 21st passingGeorgia State68th standard · 66th passingSouthern Miss48th standard · 7th passingKansas State64th standard · 68th passingUConn72nd standard · 73rd passingAlabama77th standard · 57th passingEast Carolina37th standard · 19th passingOld Dominion1st standard · 36th passingOklahoma4th standard · 50th passingUTEP9th standard · 1st passingNorthwestern88th standard · 88th passingVirginia Tech43rd standard · 91st passingMaryland34th standard · 26th passingArizona State38th standard · 61st passingNew Mexico55th standard · 48th passingNebraska46th standard · 85th passingMarshall69th standard · 32nd passingArkansas State85th standard · 59th passingSMU91st standard · 82nd passingJames Madison45th standard · 77th passingTexas State74th standard · 100th passingMississippi State66th standard · 59th passingUL Monroe47th standard · 11th passingMissouri State52nd standard · 30th passingWest Virginia54th standard · 75th passingLouisiana Tech26th standard · 79th passingUCLA80th standard · 60th passingKentucky90th standard · 51st passingFlorida61st standard · 70th passingUT Martin6th standard · 3rd passingArmy93rd standard · 58th passingMercyhurst2nd standard · 34th passingIowa79th standard · 13th passingPenn State20th standard · 47th passingAir Force98th standard · 23rd passingRobert Morris2nd standard · 5th passingGardner-Webb5th standard · 23rd passingGeorgia98th standard · 89th passingBYU86th standard · 35th passing
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, Connelly success-rate definition
View all FBS teams as a table
TeamStandard-downs percentilePassing-downs percentile
Air Force98th23rd
Akron58th34th
Alabama77th57th
App State33rd49th
Arizona76th94th
Arizona State38th61st
Arkansas71st24th
Arkansas State85th59th
Army93rd58th
Auburn14th69th
BYU86th35th
Ball State31st52nd
Baylor15th46th
Boise State77th92nd
Boston College63rd28th
Bowling Green43rd21st
Buffalo9th11th
California11th20th
Central Michigan36th9th
Charlotte18th41st
Cincinnati68th83rd
Clemson7th39th
Coastal Carolina23rd64th
Colorado16th65th
Colorado State66th95th
Delaware59th64th
Duke21st67th
East Carolina37th19th
Eastern Michigan16th30th
Florida61st70th
Florida Atlantic67th87th
Florida International20th53rd
Florida State30th90th
Fresno State25th84th
Gardner-Webb5th23rd
Georgia98th89th
Georgia Southern60th71st
Georgia State68th66th
Georgia Tech53rd40th
Hawai'i48th29th
Houston87th99th
Illinois73rd91st
Indiana55th44th
Iowa79th13th
Iowa State18th31st
Jacksonville State82nd80th
James Madison45th77th
Kansas52nd18th
Kansas State64th68th
Kennesaw State61st16th
Kent State5th21st
Kentucky90th51st
LSU86th98th
Liberty93rd78th
Louisiana36th66th
Louisiana Tech26th79th
Louisville95th72nd
Maine0th86th
Marshall69th32nd
Maryland34th26th
Massachusetts35th38th
Memphis92nd93rd
Mercyhurst2nd34th
Miami99th95th
Miami (OH)50th43rd
Michigan10th89th
Michigan State23rd55th
Middle Tennessee27th64th
Minnesota32nd4th
Mississippi State66th59th
Missouri34th41st
Missouri State52nd30th
NC State62nd77th
Navy89th17th
Nebraska46th85th
Nevada28th27th
New Mexico55th48th
New Mexico State14th36th
Norfolk State7th0th
North Carolina89th73rd
North Dakota State30th45th
North Texas95th84th
Northern Illinois51st14th
Northwestern88th88th
Notre Dame100th43rd
Ohio82nd42nd
Ohio State84th80th
Oklahoma4th50th
Oklahoma State96th86th
Old Dominion1st36th
Ole Miss81st94th
Oregon39th26th
Oregon State97th70th
Penn State20th47th
Pittsburgh65th50th
Purdue57th82nd
Rice59th14th
Robert Morris2nd5th
Rutgers42nd81st
SMU91st82nd
Sacramento State13th6th
Sam Houston11th37th
San Diego State8th54th
San José State17th2nd
South Alabama44th74th
South Carolina70th56th
South Florida84th57th
Southern Miss48th7th
Stanford40th9th
Syracuse57th39th
TCU70th10th
Temple50th68th
Tennessee75th12th
Texas27th61st
Texas A&M46th55th
Texas State74th100th
Texas Tech64th76th
Toledo73rd52nd
Troy39th15th
Tulane12th8th
Tulsa49th7th
UAB24th62nd
UCF29th45th
UCLA80th60th
UConn72nd73rd
UL Monroe47th11th
UNLV41st19th
USC79th97th
UT Martin6th3rd
UTEP9th1st
UTSA91st33rd
Utah94th98th
Utah State3rd76th
Vanderbilt41st32nd
Virginia83rd2nd
Virginia Tech43rd91st
Wake Forest75th96th
Washington56th16th
Washington State19th5th
West Virginia54th75th
Western Kentucky22nd25th
Western Michigan32nd27th
Wisconsin25th22nd
Wyoming78th48th

Sacramento State by half

1st-half offense ranks 1st percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 7th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.

league median1st half · 1st pctile2nd half · 7th pctileWorst in FBSBest in FBS
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, garbage-time adjusted by pre-play margin

How much of Sacramento State’s number is the schedule?

Raw EPA/play through week 10 is -0.07; 2nd percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's -0.05. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.13 raw vs. 0.02 adjusted.

0.160.03-0.11Wk 2Wk 6Wk 10Raw EPA/playOpponent-adjusted
0.160.03-0.11Wk 2Wk 6Wk 10RawAdjusted
Source CFB Zeitgeist · season-to-date, opponent-adjusted model
Pass defense by zoneThe part of the field opponents keep attacking.

What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.

On short throws (≤19 air yards), Sacramento State’s passing game completes a completion rate below the FBS mean (63.2% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 261-play sample) — mid-pack, 16 of 136 qualifying offenses.

On short throws (≤19 air yards), Sacramento State’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (67.8% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 173-play sample) — mid-pack, 101 of 137 qualifying defenses.

We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.

Screened 273 claims, 273 survived · 2025+ only, charted plays (parse_status='complete'); n=261 short-zone plays, raw rate 61.3%; 2025+ only, charted plays (parse_status='complete'); n=173 short-zone plays, raw rate 69.9%
Havoc & trenchesDefense havoc rate 0.118, 7th percentile

Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.

Havoc rate (D) 0.118
7th
Havoc allowed (O) 0.180
15th
Front-seven havoc (D) 0.074
10th
Secondary havoc (D) 0.044
11th
Stuff rate (D) 0.152
11th
Stuff rate allowed (O) 0.262
2nd
Line yards (O) 2.450
4th
Line yards allowed (D) 3.108
18th
Standard-downs success (O) 0.446
26th
Standard-downs success allowed (D) 0.437
64th
Passing-downs success (O) 0.214
1st
Passing-downs success allowed (D) 0.234
90th
Screened 12 claims, 12 survived · 2026 season, FBS only, min. 3 games with data this season
Turnover luckHow much of the margin was skill vs. the bounce.
Fumble luck

20% recovery rate on their own fumbles — below the ~52% league baseline.

2 of 10 own fumbles recovered themselves; 5 of 7 forced fumbles recovered, 2026 only.

TakeawaysWhat this defense does once it gets the ball.
Takeaway conversion

20% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — about the ~18% league average.

5 interceptions of 25 disrupted passes (20 deflected, 5 intercepted), 2026 only.

PenaltiesWhether flags are costing this team games.
Penalty battle

71 penalties committed, 52 drawn on opponents — ceding 214 yards of field position.

697 penalty yards committed vs. 483 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.

Ratings and comparisons

RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Where the models rank Sacramento State

CFB Zeitgeist Score

#137

-9.5

SP+

#138

-29.1

FPI

#138

-30.1

Elo

#134

1040

SRS

#138

-25.3

The national models put Sacramento State between 134th and 138th nationally — CFB Zeitgeist agrees, slotting them 137th.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist Score ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · Sacramento State

Reads like

DelawareConference USASame tier of program · Same prestige bandGramblingSWACSame tier of program · Same prestige bandMontanaBig SkySame tier of program · Same prestige band

Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site