UTSA

2-0

American Athletic · Jeff Traylor, year 7 (55-26) · Alamodome · 36,582 · 33,403 avg in 2026

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#14 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #59 (+2.9) · FPI #80
The marketTexas by 30at Texas · our model 24% UTSA · a number, not a pick

LastW 31–26 at Texas State · Sat Sep 12 · Cam Upshaw Jr. 0.5 TFL, 1 INT, 5 tackles

Nextat Texas · Sat Sep 19 · 8 pm ET · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · Texas by 30 · series 0-2, lost the last 2 · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2

Key stats — 2026 — FBS rank
Points/game
38.0
Pts allowed/game
21.0
Total yards/gm#41 / 138 · 71st pct
461.5
Rush yards/gmT-#49 / 138 · 64th pct
195.0
Pass yards/gm#49 / 138 · 65th pct
266.5
Yards allowed/gm#120 / 138 · 13th pct
451.5
Rush yds allowed/gm#129 / 138 · 7th pct
233.0
SacksT-#128 / 138 · 5th pct
1
InterceptionsT-#5 / 115 · 91st pct
4
3rd-down convT-#129 / 138 · 6th pct
25.0%
All 88 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
923461.5/gm6.99/play#41 / 138 · 71st pct#29 / 70 · 59th pct#3 / 14 · 82nd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
903451.5/gm5.61/play#120 / 138 · 13th pct#68 / 70 · 4th pct#12 / 14 · 18th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush yards
Team
390195.0/gm2.95/playT-#49 / 138 · 64th pct#27 / 70 · 62nd pct#7 / 14 · 54th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
466233.0/gm2.89/play#129 / 138 · 7th pct#69 / 70 · 2nd pct#12 / 14 · 18th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush carries
Team
6030.0/gmT-#121 / 138 · 12th pctT-#62 / 70 · 11th pct#12 / 14 · 18th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
8442.0/gm#119 / 138 · 14th pct#68 / 70 · 4th pct#11 / 14 · 25th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush TDs
Team
42.0/gmT-#51 / 138 · 54th pctT-#34 / 70 · 44th pctT-#5 / 14 · 61st pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
31.5/gmT-#86 / 138 · 31st pctT-#57 / 70 · 16th pctT-#7 / 14 · 46th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Net pass yards
Team
533266.5/gm4.04/play#49 / 138 · 65th pct#31 / 70 · 56th pct#3 / 14 · 82nd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
437218.5/gm2.71/play#87 / 138 · 37th pct#50 / 70 · 29th pct#7 / 14 · 54th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass attempts
Team
7236.0/gmT-#32 / 138 · 77th pct#15 / 70 · 79th pct#2 / 14 · 89th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
7738.5/gmT-#120 / 138 · 13th pct#62 / 70 · 12th pct#12 / 14 · 18th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Completions
Team
5125.5/gmT-#24 / 138 · 83rd pct#11 / 70 · 85th pct#2 / 14 · 89th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
4321.5/gmT-#106 / 138 · 22nd pctT-#57 / 70 · 17th pct#12 / 14 · 18th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass TDs
Team
52.5/gmT-#33 / 138 · 71st pctT-#24 / 70 · 60th pctT-#2 / 14 · 86th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#13 / 138 · 80th pctT-#11 / 70 · 72nd pct#2 / 14 · 89th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Passer rating#58 / 115 · 50th pct#41 / 60 · 32nd pct#4 / 10 · 65th pct#4 / 13 · 77th pct
144.8144.8
Interceptions thrown
Team
00.0/gmT-#92 / 138 · 17th pctT-#42 / 70 · 21st pctT-#10 / 14 · 18th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
42.0/gmT-#123 / 138 · 7th pctT-#65 / 70 · 5th pctT-#13 / 14 · 7th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Sacks (def)
Team
10.5/gmT-#128 / 138 · 5th pctT-#68 / 70 · 2nd pctT-#13 / 14 · 7th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
00.0/gmT-#1 / 138 · 97th pctT-#1 / 70 · 96th pct#1 / 14 · 96th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
Tackles for loss
Team
42.0/gmT-#135 / 138 · 2nd pctT-#68 / 70 · 3rd pct#14 / 14 · 4th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
63.0/gmT-#20 / 138 · 83rd pctT-#15 / 70 · 77th pctT-#2 / 14 · 86th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
First downs
Team
4522.5/gmT-#59 / 138 · 56th pctT-#38 / 70 · 45th pct#6 / 14 · 61st pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
4924.5/gmT-#125 / 138 · 9th pctT-#68 / 70 · 3rd pctT-#12 / 14 · 14th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down conv
Team
63.0/gmT-#125 / 138 · 8th pct#67 / 70 · 5th pct#12 / 14 · 18th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
168.0/gmT-#126 / 138 · 8th pctT-#67 / 70 · 4th pct#13 / 14 · 11th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down att
Team
2412.0/gmT-#81 / 138 · 38th pctT-#39 / 70 · 42nd pctT-#9 / 14 · 32nd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
3517.5/gmT-#122 / 138 · 11th pctT-#67 / 70 · 4th pct#13 / 14 · 11th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down conv
Team
52.5/gmT-#4 / 138 · 95th pctT-#3 / 70 · 94th pctT-#1 / 14 · 86th pct#12 / 13 · 15th pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#26 / 138 · 66th pctT-#15 / 70 · 61st pctT-#1 / 14 · 75th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down att
Team
73.5/gmT-#10 / 138 · 91st pctT-#5 / 70 · 91st pctT-#2 / 14 · 86th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
42.0/gmT-#80 / 138 · 36th pctT-#42 / 70 · 32nd pct#6 / 14 · 61st pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Time of possession
Team
53:3126:46/gm#118 / 138 · 15th pct#61 / 70 · 14th pct#12 / 14 · 18th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
66:2933:14/gmT-#108 / 138 · 22nd pct#61 / 70 · 14th pct#11 / 14 · 25th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats — 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
+0.23 EPA/play2250 / 6972.5489
#48 FBS
7.14
#36 FBS
0151.14744.48.20
Running Backs
Player#GCarYdsAvgTDLongStuff%10+%
+0.25 EPA/play1223179
#33 FBS
7.8175
Receivers
Player#GRecYdsAvgTDLong
+0.24 EPA/play152814017.5162
Possession Receiver · +0.63 EPA/play1421212510.4144
+0.36 EPA/play8421112511.4136
+0.57 EPA/play25448.8013

2026 stat leaders · UTSA

through 2 games

Brandon Tucker Jr. leads UTSA with 18 tackles through 2 games.

1. Brandon Tucker Jr. LB 18 tackles
2. Owen McCown QB 489 passing yards
3. Joel Rogers S 12 tackles
4. Darion White LB 12 tackles
5. Will Henderson III RB 179 rushing yards
How They Play · 2025

UTSA fields a strong explosive, big-play offense behind a solid, gives up the big play defense.

Offense
69th pct EPA/play
Tempo
79th pct explosiveness
Defense
57th pct EPA allowed
Defensive shape
7th pct at limiting explosive plays

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

The Savant Card · UTSA · 2025

UTSA reads strongest in explosive plays (top 21%) and success rate allowed (top 29%); the crux lives in explosive plays allowed, where UTSA sits at the 6th percentile.

offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.20
69th
Success Rate +0.44
64th
Explosive Plays +1.34
79th
Rushing EPA +0.15
69th

defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA Allowed +0.14
57th
Success Rate Allowed +0.38
72nd
Explosive Plays Allowed +1.39
7th
Passing EPA Allowed +0.28
36th

hidden math · special situations

Passing EPA +0.31
64th
Rushing EPA Allowed +0.07
56th
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 13 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 136 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · UTSA · 2018–present · FBS opponents

UTSA is worth +7.7 points more at home than on the road.

Top tenth of FBS, 96th percentile of 133 programs

71% at home, 44% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (32–13 home, 21–27 away). Interval ±4.1.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, UTSA has beaten the number by 8.2 points more at home than away over 76 games — outside the ±6.5 that many games can resolve. This is one of the few buildings where the results say something the flat number does not.

Alamodome seats 36,582 and has averaged 70% full (25,546, 27 games reported). Visitors cover a median 504 miles to get here since 2018 — 49th-longest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 22% of the 2026 roster (34 of 155 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 52 home games since 2018.

Home32–13Away21–27Edge+7.7 ±4.1Visitor trip504 mi

More in this tab

Scheme claimsFive specific, testable claims about how this team plays.

Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected

UTSA's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time

Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 96th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 96th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.

league medianRaw 4th quarter · 96th pctileCompetitive snaps only · 96th pctileWorst in FBSBest in FBS
Source CFB Zeitgeist · CFBD play-by-play, garbage-time adjusted by pre-play margin

Standard downs vs. passing downs

Does UTSA hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?

99th percentile success on standard downs, 29th on passing downs — a 70-point gap between the two.

Fragile off scheduleBalanced, both workStruggles even on scheduleStandard-downs reliantUTSAWeak on standard downsElite on standard downsFalls apart off scheduleHolds up off scheduleHawai'i18th standard · 41st passingUNLV51st standard · 7th passingStanford76th standard · 15th passingEastern Michigan52nd standard · 10th passingSan José State54th standard · 22nd passingNew Mexico State45th standard · 75th passingSacramento State23rd standard · 14th passingOklahoma State41st standard · 49th passingDuke20th standard · 29th passingFlorida State28th standard · 65th passingRutgers30th standard · 71st passingKansas70th standard · 35th passingBoston College27th standard · 56th passingNorfolk State16th standard · 9th passingLouisville96th standard · 70th passingMissouri36th standard · 85th passingMemphis69th standard · 65th passingGeorgia Southern24th standard · 45th passingOle Miss94th standard · 50th passingJacksonville State65th standard · 82nd passingNorth Dakota State86th standard · 27th passingArizona92nd standard · 86th passingUSC97th standard · 99th passingWake Forest56th standard · 97th passingTCU93rd standard · 8th passingDelaware70th standard · 31st passingUAB65th standard · 81st passingMichigan State62nd standard · 29th passingSouth Florida91st standard · 52nd passingFlorida International46th standard · 43rd passingNavy98th standard · 59th passingWisconsin13th standard · 18th passingOregon State10th standard · 38th passingSyracuse48th standard · 64th passingOhio State90th standard · 40th passingBall State12th standard · 24th passingPittsburgh30th standard · 76th passingColorado35th standard · 77th passingGeorgia Tech58th standard · 44th passingAuburn75th standard · 55th passingBaylor40th standard · 96th passingNorth Texas49th standard · 68th passingApp State44th standard · 90th passingIowa State4th standard · 23rd passingUTSA99th standard · 29th passingArkansas60th standard · 80th passingBoise State58th standard · 46th passingOregon35th standard · 33rd passingTulsa56th standard · 1st passingTulane31st standard · 2nd passingPurdue83rd standard · 88th passingMiddle Tennessee87th standard · 68th passingVanderbilt80th standard · 12th passingSan Diego State4th standard · 40th passingLSU33rd standard · 98th passingClemson1st standard · 19th passingCentral Michigan16th standard · 6th passingTexas Tech88th standard · 48th passingMichigan2nd standard · 62nd passingWestern Michigan39th standard · 20th passingOhio38th standard · 17th passingBuffalo7th standard · 14th passingTexas72nd standard · 94th passingCoastal Carolina61st standard · 52nd passingColorado State82nd standard · 91st passingWyoming65th standard · 36th passingTexas A&M85th standard · 72nd passingLiberty14th standard · 59th passingFlorida Atlantic43rd standard · 87th passingLouisiana19th standard · 92nd passingSouth Alabama50th standard · 73rd passingTroy22nd standard · 59th passingSam Houston78th standard · 61st passingNevada77th standard · 52nd passingWestern Kentucky25th standard · 34th passingWashington State8th standard · 3rd passingWashington81st standard · 4th passingCalifornia9th standard · 25th passingCharlotte73rd standard · 83rd passingTennessee65th standard · 78th passingUtah State4th standard · 93rd passing
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, Connelly success-rate definition
View all FBS teams as a table
TeamStandard-downs percentilePassing-downs percentile
App State44th90th
Arizona92nd86th
Arkansas60th80th
Auburn75th55th
Ball State12th24th
Baylor40th96th
Boise State58th46th
Boston College27th56th
Buffalo7th14th
California9th25th
Central Michigan16th6th
Charlotte73rd83rd
Clemson1st19th
Coastal Carolina61st52nd
Colorado35th77th
Colorado State82nd91st
Delaware70th31st
Duke20th29th
Eastern Michigan52nd10th
Florida Atlantic43rd87th
Florida International46th43rd
Florida State28th65th
Georgia Southern24th45th
Georgia Tech58th44th
Hawai'i18th41st
Iowa State4th23rd
Jacksonville State65th82nd
Kansas70th35th
LSU33rd98th
Liberty14th59th
Louisiana19th92nd
Louisville96th70th
Memphis69th65th
Michigan2nd62nd
Michigan State62nd29th
Middle Tennessee87th68th
Missouri36th85th
Navy98th59th
Nevada77th52nd
New Mexico State45th75th
Norfolk State16th9th
North Dakota State86th27th
North Texas49th68th
Ohio38th17th
Ohio State90th40th
Oklahoma State41st49th
Ole Miss94th50th
Oregon35th33rd
Oregon State10th38th
Pittsburgh30th76th
Purdue83rd88th
Rutgers30th71st
Sacramento State23rd14th
Sam Houston78th61st
San Diego State4th40th
San José State54th22nd
South Alabama50th73rd
South Florida91st52nd
Stanford76th15th
Syracuse48th64th
TCU93rd8th
Tennessee65th78th
Texas72nd94th
Texas A&M85th72nd
Texas Tech88th48th
Troy22nd59th
Tulane31st2nd
Tulsa56th1st
UAB65th81st
UNLV51st7th
USC97th99th
UTSA99th29th
Utah State4th93rd
Vanderbilt80th12th
Wake Forest56th97th
Washington81st4th
Washington State8th3rd
Western Kentucky25th34th
Western Michigan39th20th
Wisconsin13th18th
Wyoming65th36th

Halftime identity

UTSA by half

1st-half offense ranks 50th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 87th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.

league median1st half · 50th pctile2nd half · 87th…Worst in FBSBest in FBS
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, garbage-time adjusted by pre-play margin
Tendency driftHow this coordinator's calls have drifted since arriving.

Season by season

How UTSA’s current staff calls plays, year over year

Defense: Jess Loepp (2022–2026)
1st-down pass rate
2022: 47% → 2026: 51% · 6-pt range · #162 of 203 · less than most
Red-zone pass rate
2022: 46% → 2026: 30% · 21-pt range · #37 of 200 · more than most
4th-down go rate
2022: 42% → 2025: 48% · 14-pt range · #109 of 189 · a typical amount
Pass defense by zoneThe part of the field opponents keep attacking.

Pass-depth identity

What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.

On short throws (≤19 air yards), UTSA’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (71.6% vs 68.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 62-play sample) — mid-pack, 35 of 41 qualifying offenses.

We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.

Screened 59 claims, 59 survived · 2025+ only, charted plays (parse_status='complete'); n=62 short-zone plays, raw rate 75.8%
RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank UTSA

CFB Zeitgeist

#14

+7.9

SP+

#59

+2.9

FPI

#80

-3.7

Elo

#58

1525

The national models put UTSA between 58th and 80th nationally — CFB Zeitgeist is higher on them than any of these models, at 14th.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · UTSA

Reads like

Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

Historical echoPrograms whose arc bent the same way -- then what happened.

Historical echo

UTSA’s breakout has happened before — and the 4 closest all held onto theirs.

Programs whose stature climbed in the same shape. The grey line is their run; the color is what came next for them.

Mississippi State 1974–1979
kept climbing
Arizona 1982–1987
kept climbing
Penn State 1958–1963
kept climbing
Western Michigan 1975–1980
held the gain

An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration, medium confidence; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.

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