Bill O'Brien

Head coach · Boston College
3rd season · since 2024 · Penn State before

At school13-20since 2024 · 4-4 this seasonHot seatWarm12% · 34th of 132 jobsLast gameL 2-47at Duke · Oct 31Nextvs Florida StateSat Nov 7 · 12 pm ET · ACC Network
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

4-4, on track for 5-7 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianPenn StateBoston CollegeBlue Bloodpermanent top tierPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelPenn State when he took over: 57.4 (Power Program I), its final 2011 readingtook overPenn State, 2012: 8-4, Power Program IPenn State, 2012: 8-4, Power Program I20128-4Penn State, 2013: 7-5, Power Program IIPenn State, 2013: 7-5, Power Program II20137-5-1.0Boston College when he took over: 24.2 (Regional Program I), its final 2023 readingtook overBoston College, 2024: 7-6, Regional Program IBoston College, 2024: 7-6, Regional Program I20247-6Boston College, 2025: 2-10, National Program III20252-10Boston College, 2026: 4-4, Regional Program IBoston College, 2026: 4-4, Regional Program I20264-4+1.7best: 2012○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 0-1

Boston College2024Pinstripe BowlL 15-20

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 2-47 at Duke Sat Oct 31
  • This season4-4
  • Hot seat12% 34th of 132
  • On track for5-7 regular season
  • Nextvs. Florida State Sat Nov 7
  • Stature83rd of 138 FBS programs

Win and he’s at 8%. Lose and he’s at 13%.

vs. Florida State, Sat Nov 7, 12 pm ET ACC Network · Florida State is 3-5 · First meeting between O'Brien and Rick Stockstill as head coaches · Boston College’s chance to win: 35% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Boston College wins: 8%, 40th of 132Now: 12%If Boston College loses: 13%, 30th of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Boston College wins: 8%, 40th of 132
  • Now: 12%
  • If Boston College loses: 13%, 30th of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

12% chance he’s out after the season · 34th of 132 FBS head coaches · Warm

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow6% had they won6% had they wonLoss 13%Win 8%22%21%17%22%22%23%16%10%12%Pre1L at CincinnatiL2W vs. RutgersW3W vs. MaineW4L vs. Virginia TechL5L at SMUL6W vs. PittsburghW7W at Georgia TechW8L at DukeL9Chance to win vs. Florida State35%10Chance to win at Notre Dame1%11Chance to win vs. Syracuse45%12Chance to win at Miami3%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow6% had they wonLoss 13%Win 8%22%12%Pre368912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 4-814%
  2. 5-79%
  3. 6-65%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now right where 2025 was at this point.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool2024202520262024, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 92nd-hottest of 111 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (4 games in): 1%, 109th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (5 games in): 1%, 110th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (6 games in): 1%, 104th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (6 games in): 1%, 101st-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 99th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (8 games in): 1%, 95th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (8 games in): 1%, 98th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (9 games in): 1%, 100th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): 1%, 99th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): <1%, 102nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 103rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 102nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): <1%, 102nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 3 (3 games in): 7%, 48th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (3 games in): 7%, 57th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (4 games in): 10%, 41st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 14%, 35th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 17%, 31st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 19%, 27th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 18%, 26th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (9 games in): 20%, 23rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (10 games in): 21%, 22nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (11 games in): 21%, 22nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 21%, 22nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 15%, 28th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 15%, 28th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 15%, 28th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 22%, 24th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 22%, 25th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 23%, 22nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (5 games in): 23%, 18th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): 16%, 30th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 9.7%, 42nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 12%, 38th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 12%, 34th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnowHottest: 2026, week 6▲ 9-16 over his previous two seasons here

Hottest: 2026, week 6 (23%, 18th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs that week). Top factor: ▲ Hotter 9-16 over his previous two seasons here

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    9-16 over his previous two seasons here
  • ▲ Hotter
    4-4, outscored by 39

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 4-4 after 8 games
8% pushed out over results · of 504 coaches
Were in years 3-4, after 8 games
13% pushed out over results · of 754 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
No figure on file for this coach. The salary database predates the last coaching carousel; a name mismatch is suppressed rather than misattributed.

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

His week

Boston College Athletics · 624 views by Wednesday

Several stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4

Offense: 91st of 138 per play. Defense: 28th.

Offense, per play91stOffense, points per trip inside the 40110thDefense, per play28thDefense, big plays allowed19thWorstBest
Offense, per play91st of 138Offense, points per trip inside the 40110th of 138Defense, per play28th of 138Defense, big plays allowed19th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Boston College. The other two rows are where Boston College stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7vs. Florida State (3-5)ACC Network35%
  2. Sat Nov 14at Notre Dame (7-1)NBC1%
  3. Sat Nov 21vs. Syracuse (4-4)45%
  4. Sat Nov 28at Miami (8-0)3%

Percent: Boston College’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Boston College stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

71st78th85thPreseason74thCincinnati L 15-34Cincinnati L 15-34L 15-34Cincinnati75thRutgers W 28-21Rutgers W 28-21W 28-21Rutgers79thMaine W 22-16Maine W 22-16W 22-16Maine81stVirginia Tech L 14-21Virginia Tech L 14-21L 14-21Virginia Tech82ndSMU L 16-25SMU L 16-25L 16-25SMU82ndPittsburgh W 27-21Pittsburgh W 27-21W 27-21Pittsburgh82ndGeorgia Tech W 49-27Georgia Tech W 49-27W 49-27Georgia Tech82ndDuke L 2-47Duke L 2-47L 2-47Duke79th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1L 2-47 at Duke2 headlines · 77th of 138
  2. Oct 19–25W 49-27 at Georgia Tech0 headlines
  3. Oct 12–18W 27-21 vs. Pittsburgh4 headlines · 55th of 138
  4. Oct 5–11No game2 headlines · 70th of 138Matt Campbell's Penn State football start vs Joe Paterno, Bill O'Brien York Daily Record
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 16-25 at SMU7 headlines · 53rd of 138'We Pride Ourselves On That': Bill O'Brien Calls For Discipline After BC Falls at SMU Yahoo Sports“We Pride Ourselves On That”Bill O'Brien Calls For Discipline After BC Falls at SMU, Oct 3
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 14-21 vs. Virginia Tech8 headlines · 44th of 138Bill O'Brien on preparing for the Virginia Tech game Stream of NCAA Football CBS Sports

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Boston College’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.