Ken Niumatalolo

Head coach · San José State
3rd season · since 2024 · Navy before

At school14-20since 2024 · 4-5 this seasonHot seatWarm12% · 31st of 132 jobsLast gameL 16-21vs New Mexico · Oct 31Nextvs Northern IllinoisSat Nov 7 · 4 pm ET
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

4-5, lost 2 straight, on track for 5-7 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Bowls and playoffs: 6-6

Navy’07L’08L’09W’10L’12L’13W’14W’15W’16L’17W’19WSan José State’24L

Show all 12 games
Navy2007Poinsettia BowlL 32-352008EagleBank BowlL 19-292009Texas BowlW 35-132010Poinsettia BowlL 14-352012Kraft Fight Hunger BowlL 28-622013Armed Forces BowlW 24-62014Poinsettia BowlW 17-162015Military BowlW 44-282016Armed Forces BowlL 45-482017Military BowlW 49-72019Liberty BowlW 20-17San José State2024Hawaii BowlL 39-41

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 16-21 vs. New Mexico Sat Oct 31
  • This season4-5 lost 2 straight
  • Hot seat12% 31st of 132
  • On track for5-7 regular season
  • Nextvs. Northern Illinois Sat Nov 7
  • Stature114th of 138 FBS programs

Win and he’s at 11%. Lose and he’s at 17%.

vs. Northern Illinois, Sat Nov 7, 4 pm ET MW+ · Northern Illinois is 0-8 · First meeting between Niumatalolo and Rob Harley as head coaches · San José State’s chance to win: 78% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf San José State wins: 11%, 34th of 132Now: 12%If San José State loses: 17%, 25th of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If San José State wins: 11%, 34th of 132
  • Now: 12%
  • If San José State loses: 17%, 25th of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

12% chance he’s out after the season · 31st of 132 FBS head coaches · Warm

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow8% had they won8% had they wonLoss 17%Win 11%24%23%14%12%14%9%13%11%13%12%Pre1L at USCL2W at Eastern MichiganW3W vs. Cal PolyW4L vs. Fresno StateL5W at Hawai'iW6L vs. WyomingL7W at UTEPW8L at NevadaL9L vs. New MexicoL10Chance to win vs. Northern Illinois78%11Chance to win at Air Force25%12Chance to win vs. UNLV42%13Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow8% had they wonLoss 17%Win 11%24%12%Pre3691213Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 4-819%
  2. 5-713%
  3. 6-68%
  4. 7-55%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now hotter than at this point in any of his two finished seasons here.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool2024202520262024, week 3 (3 games in): <1%, 108th-hottest of 111 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (4 games in): <1%, 129th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (4 games in): <1%, 130th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (5 games in): <1%, 130th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (6 games in): <1%, 129th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): <1%, 128th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (8 games in): <1%, 127th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (8 games in): <1%, 126th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (9 games in): <1%, 127th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): <1%, 124th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): <1%, 118th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 119th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 119th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): <1%, 119th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (3 games in): 7%, 58th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (4 games in): 7%, 56th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 6%, 57th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 7%, 49th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 8%, 46th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (7 games in): 8%, 45th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (8 games in): 6%, 52nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): 9.8%, 40th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 12%, 34th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 13%, 30th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 14%, 29th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 14%, 29th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 14%, 29th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (4 games in): 14%, 37th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 15%, 33rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 9%, 45th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 13%, 39th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (7 games in): 11%, 44th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (8 games in): 13%, 35th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (9 games in): 12%, 36th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (9 games in): 12%, 31st-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnow

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    10-15 over his previous two seasons here
  • ▲ Hotter
    $4M buyout · 2.7× his pay, a multiple below average in FBS — cheap to move on
  • ▲ Hotter
    4-5, outscored by 22

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 4-5 after 9 games
10% pushed out over results · of 415 coaches
Were in years 3-4, after 9 games
12% pushed out over results · of 748 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$4,012,500 reported, USA Today, Oct. 2025 · 2.7× total pay · a small buyout, which raises his chance of being let go · without it: 9%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

Offense: 89th of 138 per play. Defense: 67th.

Offense, per play89thOffense, staying on schedule113thDefense, per play67thDefense, knocking offenses off schedule105thWorstBest
Offense, per play89th of 138Offense, staying on schedule113th of 138Defense, per play67th of 138Defense, knocking offenses off schedule105th of 138WorstBest
Through 9 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is San José State. The other two rows are where San José State stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7vs. Northern Illinois (0-8)MW+78%
  2. Sat Nov 14at Air Force (6-2)CBS Sports Network25%
  3. Sat Nov 21vs. UNLV (5-3)CBS Sports Network42%
  4. Fri Nov 27vs. North Dakota State (7-2)CBS Sports Network

Percent: San José State’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where San José State stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

108th114th120thPreseason112thUSC L 26-42USC L 26-42L 26-42USC112thEastern Michigan W 27-21Eastern Michigan W 27-21W 27-21Eastern Michi…112thCal Poly W 30-20Cal Poly W 30-20W 30-20Cal Poly113thFresno State L 10-26Fresno State L 10-26L 10-26Fresno State114thHawai'i W 20-16Hawai'i W 20-16W 20-16Hawai'i114thWyoming L 13-16Wyoming L 13-16L 13-16Wyoming114thUTEP W 24-11UTEP W 24-11W 24-11UTEP113thNevada L 13-28Nevada L 13-28L 13-28Nevada115thNew Mexico L 16-21New Mexico L 16-21L 16-21New Mexico113th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1L 16-21 vs. New Mexico0 headlines
  2. Oct 19–25L 13-28 at Nevada0 headlines
  3. Oct 12–18W 24-11 at UTEP0 headlines
  4. Oct 5–11L 13-16 vs. Wyoming0 headlines
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4W 20-16 at Hawai'i0 headlines
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltNo game0 headlines

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from San José State’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.