Junior quarterback for Rice. 2023: 721 passing yards, 8 TD, 6 INT.
6′3″ · 241 lb · Frisco, TX
Recruiting
QB recruit
No. 1855 nationally · Signed with Rice
No college snaps yet.
His career numbers, season by seasonThe story
3 quarterback for Rice. 2023: 721 passing yards, 8 TD, 6 INT.
AJ Padgett
Operates within the system without forcing anything. This is his second year in the same quarterback room at Rice. The receipt on tape: 255 pass yds, 22 rush yds against Florida Atlantic, Week 13, 2023.
Low coverage — composed from the verified record.
His career
Career arc
Season context · Team result + system
2 seasons under Mike Bloomgren — 11-15 over that span.
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles
Concern: interception rate (2nd percentile).
Real play-by-play efficiency
Season trend
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).
Pass Profile · Completions by yards gained (PBP)
Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from
Adjusted ANY/A
4.19186 of 212 QBsSack rate
8.6%177 of 212 QBsSacked on 8.6% of dropbacks (177 of 212) and Adjusted ANY/A trails the field (186 of 212).
Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.
Short
0–9 ydsMiddle
10–19 ydsDeep
20+ ydsOverall 60.0% completion on 115 attempts · 10 deep completions averaging 22.9 yds.
Splits · Per-game
2023 season · 5 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home2g | 170 | 2.0 | 5.5 | 2.0 |
| Road3g | 127 | 1.3 | 6.4 | 0.7 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-72g | 72.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 1.5 |
| Weeks 8+3g | 192 | 2.0 | 6.7 | 1.0 |
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Scott Abell
Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.
Player standing · 2023
Earning real snaps in the rotation without a starting job.
Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|
The plays that mattered most
Game log · Week-by-week
2023 season · 5 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 4 | L 29-42@ South Florida | 7/10 | 59 | 1 | 0 | 5.9 | 49.6 | |
| Wk 11 | L 14-34@ UTSA | 17/28 | 182 | 2 | 0 | 6.5 | 20.2 | |
| Wk 12 | W 28-7@ Charlotte | 13/21 | 140 | 1 | 2 | 6.7 | 41.1 | |
| Wk 13 | W 24-21vs Florida Atlantic | 24/37 | 255 | 3 | 1 | 6.9 | 64.1 | Season-high 255 yds |
| Bowl | L 21-45vs Texas State | 10/21 | 85 | 1 | 3 | 4.0 | 4.8 | |
| Total | 71/117 | 721 | 8 | 6 | 6.0 | 36.0 |
Play style
Balanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile.
CFB Index positional classification
Short-yardage / goal-line · enumeration
Who gets the tough yard
3 of the team's 25 inside-the-5 carries (12.0%).
2026 Outlook
Rice
2026 Depth chart
Returning starter
Quarterback · Rice
Returning around him
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Rice · Last season: 5-8 · Talent rank #100 · 2026 recruiting class #104
Player DNA
Balanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile.
His 2023 production profile sits closest to Ethan Hampton’s 2022 season.
Matches Ethan on
Differs from Ethan on
Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Sam Noyer’s path through Oregon State.
Matches Sam on
As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Joe Pesansky's sophomore season at Florida International (2025).
Matches Joe on
Differs from Joe on