Last confirmed: Mississippi State, 2015. No 2026 box-score games on record.
6′2″ · Haughton, LA
Dak Prescott: QB · Mississippi State · #15.
Closest statistical matches, adjusted for opponent strength.
Dak Prescott
Picks you apart underneath and protects the ball. Second year in the Mississippi State quarterback room. On tape: 508 passing yards and 46 rushing yards against Arkansas, Week 12, 2015.
Play style
High-percentage passer who protects the ball. Loses the matchup on improvisation.
Checkdown vs gunslinger · 3rd-and-long
Where the completions actually land
62.2% completion on 3rd-and-8+, but only 32.7% conversion-per-dropback — 39.3% of completions land short of the sticks.
Where completions land is fact — whether incompletions were aimed deep is intent, not recorded here, so this card counts completions only. checkdown by design
Short-yardage / goal-line · enumeration
Who gets the tough yard
19 of 21 on 3rd/4th-and-2-or-less (90.5%). 12 of the team's 21 inside-the-5 carries (57.1%).
No outlet on our list has written about him by name this season.
The Clarion-Ledger Oct 17Swipe the table sideways for more columns.
| Season | Team | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Mississippi State | 316 | 477 | 66.2% | 3,793 | 8.0 | 29 | 5 | 151.0 | 77 |
| 2014 | Mississippi State | 244 | 396 | 61.6% | 3,449 | 8.7 | 27 | 11 | 151.7 | 83 |
| Career | 560 | 873 | 64.1% | 7,242 | 8.3 | 56 | 16 | 151.3 | 79 |
| Season | Team | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Mississippi State | 160 | 588 | 3.7 | 10 |
| 2014 | Mississippi State | 210 | 986 | 4.7 | 14 |
| Career | 370 | 1,574 | 4.3 | 24 |
Game log · Week-by-week
2015 season · 13 games
Swipe the table sideways for more columns.
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 34-16@ Southern Miss | 22/38 | 237 | 2 | 0 | 6.2 | 80.8 | 4 TD passes |
| Wk 2 | L 19-21vs No. 14 LSU | 34/52 | 335 | 1 | 0 | 6.4 | 54.7 | |
| Wk 3 | W 62-13vs Northwestern State | 10/11 | 227 | 2 | 0 | 20.6 | 99.2 | |
| Wk 4 | W 17-9@ Auburn | 29/41 | 270 | 2 | 0 | 6.6 | 74.3 | Clean 2-TD game |
| Wk 5 | L 17-30@ No. 14 Texas A&M | 20/34 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 6.2 | 52.5 | |
| Wk 6 | W 45-17vs Troy | 3/6 | 74 | 1 | 0 | 12.3 | 37.9 | |
| Wk 7 | W 45-20vs Louisiana Tech | 30/43 | 347 | 3 | 0 | 8.1 | 84.0 | 3 TD passes |
| Wk 8 | W 42-16vs Kentucky | 25/35 | 348 | 3 | 1 | 9.9 | 95.4 | 3 TD passes |
| Wk 10 | W 31-13@ Missouri | 27/40 | 303 | 4 | 0 | 7.6 | 78.6 | 4 TD passes |
| Wk 11 | L 6-31vs No. 3 Alabama | 22/43 | 300 | 0 | 1 | 7.0 | 17.8 | |
| Wk 12 | W 51-50@ Arkansas | 38/50 | 508 | 5 | 1 | 10.2 | 86.0 | Season-high 508 yds |
| Wk 13 | L 27-38vs No. 19 Ole Miss | 31/42 | 254 | 2 | 1 | 6.0 | 29.3 | |
 Bowl | W 51-28vs NC State | 25/42 | 380 | 4 | 1 | 9.0 | 58.5 | |
| Total | 316/477 | 3793 | 29 | 5 | 8.0 | — |
Week 12 · 2015
W 51-50
at Arkansas
508 yds · 5 TD · 1 INT · QBR 86.0 · 46 rush yds (15 car) · 2 TD
Edged out Arkansas on the road in a shootout.
With B. Holloway — 4 rec · 101 yds · 1 TD · 63 rush yds (14 car) · F. Ross — 10 rec · 154 yds · 2 TD
The plays that mattered most
Pass Profile · Completions by yards gained (PBP)
Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from
Totals here are the box score's. Play-by-play lists 467 passing plays (307 completions) against the box score's 477 attempts (316 completions), and the depth buckets use play-by-play.
Adjusted ANY/A
7.7931 of 198 QBsSack rate
6.3%105 of 198 QBsSacked on 6.3% of dropbacks (105 of 198) — and still 31 of 198 in Adjusted ANY/A.
Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.
Short
0–9 ydsMiddle
10–19 ydsDeep
20+ ydsOverall 66.2% completion on 477 attempts · 41 deep completions averaging 34.6 yds.
Is he a different quarterback when it matters
Each situation vs his own 2015 baseline
No situation moves him more than 46 percentile points from his baseline.
Deltas are vs. this player’s own season baseline, never a league average. League sack rate by down is shown as context because sack attribution isn’t incompletion-denominated.
2 seasons under Dan Mullen — 19-7 over that span.
Splits · Per-game
2015 season · 13 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 269 | 1.7 | 10.0 | 0.4 |
| Road5g | 306 | 2.6 | 7.4 | 0.2 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-78g | 260 | 1.9 | 9.4 | 0.1 |
| Weeks 8+5g | 343 | 2.8 | 8.1 | 0.8 |
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Dan Mullen
Pass share
54.2%
498 pass / 420 run
Plays / game
70.6
13 games
Scheme: Balanced.
Player standing · 2015
Our Heisman model had this player inside its top 25 in 2015.
How it ended
Two seasons at Mississippi State, 7,242 passing yards — drafted at #135 overall by the Dallas Cowboys.
His career
Coaching lineage · 2011–2015
1 coachPlayed his entire career under Dan Mullen.
Where he ended up · NFL
Dallas CowboysEntering 11th NFL season
Dallas CowboysEntering 11th NFL season
