Lucas Johnson

Senior quarterback for San Diego State. 2021: 1,424 passing yards, 12 TD, 4 INT.

QB · San Diego State · Sr. · #7

6′3″ · 215 lb · San Diego, CA

CFB Index 28 · #103 of 126 QBsHigh confidenceSan Diego State 2021 alumnus

The story

4 quarterback for San Diego State. 2021: 1,424 passing yards, 12 TD, 4 INT.

The record fills in as he plays.

His career, year by year

How it ended

Four seasons at San Diego State, 1,795 passing yards — his college career is complete.

His career

He barely played early on. Then he did not come off the field.

2022

Entered the portal

Career arc

Recruit

—

No recruit profile

CFB

College

2 teams

2017–2021

NFL

NFL Draft

—

Not drafted

Coaching lineage · 2017–2021

2 coaches

2017

Rocky Long

San Diego State

2019

Rocky Long

San Diego State

2020–2021

Brady Hoke

San Diego State

era →

Coaching transition mid-career: Rocky Long → Brady Hoke. Worth noting in scheme + development context.

2021 snapshot

Season context · Team result + system

2017Georgia Tech5-6HC: Paul Johnson · Run-heavy

2019Georgia Tech3-9HC: Geoff Collins · Run-heavy, slow tempo

2020San Diego State4-4HC: Brady Hoke · Run-heavy

2021San Diego State12-2HC: Brady Hoke · Run-heavy

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

28Below cohort / limited sample #103 of 126?

High confidence13 metrics · season cumulative

Concern: explosive rate (9th percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

Interception rate#56 / 167 · 66th pct

1.7%

Sack rate#63 / 167 · 62nd pct

5.6%

Success rate#96 / 167 · 43rd pct

45.3%

EPA / dropback#116 / 167 · 31st pct

0.18

Explosive rate#152 / 167 · 9th pct

6.4%

Box-score rates (8)

Interceptions#33 / 169 · 76th pct

Rush yards#58 / 169 · 66th pct

181

Completion %#79 / 169 · 53rd pct

61.9%

Pass TDs#84 / 169 · 49th pct

Fumbles lost#82 / 159 · 36th pct

Pass yards#110 / 169 · 35th pct

1424

Rush TDs#103 / 169 · 31st pct

Yards / att#131 / 169 · 22nd pct

6.4

Season trend

EPA / dropback— 2020 cohort too thin to compare (n=17)

Success rate— 2020 cohort too thin to compare (n=17)

Explosive rate— 2020 cohort too thin to compare (n=17)

Sack rate— 2020 cohort too thin to compare (n=17)

Interception rate— 2020 cohort too thin to compare (n=17)

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Passing profile

Pass Profile · Completions by yards gained (PBP)

Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from

133/216 (61.6%) · 12 TD · 4 INT

216 of 223 attempts matched to play-by-play

Adjusted ANY/A

6.09118 of 204 QBs

Sack rate

5.1%73 of 204 QBs

Rarely sacked (73 of 204), but Adjusted ANY/A hasn't followed (118 of 204).

Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.

Short

0–9 yds

59%of completions

78 comp5.1 yds avg3 TD

Middle

10–19 yds

30%of completions

40 comp13.3 yds avg2 TD

Deep

20+ yds

11%of completions

15 comp28.0 yds avg3 TD

Overall 61.6% completion on 216 attempts · 15 deep completions averaging 28.0 yds.

Splits & context

Splits · Per-game

2021 season · 11 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Home6g	115	0.7	4.8	0.5
Road5g	80.2	1.0	6.5	0.2

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Weeks 1-75g	46.8	0.8	4.8	0.2
Weeks 8+6g	143	0.8	6.1	0.5

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2026 season

Head Coach

Sean Lewis

Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.

Awards

Player standing · 2021

Impact starter

Producing measurably more than a replacement-level starter.

Recognition

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Production · CFB Index Score

28 · #103 of 126 QBs

Career stats

Season	Team
2021	San Diego State	138	223	61.9%	1,424	6.4	12	4	129.7	34	--	--
2020	San Diego State	14	24	58.3%	184	7.7	1	0	136.5	--	--	--
2019	Georgia Tech	21	37	56.8%	187	5.1	1	1	102.7	--	--	--
2017	Georgia Tech	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Career		173	284	60.9%	1,795	6.3	14	5	126.8	34	--	--

Season	Team
2021	San Diego State	52	181	3.5	1	--
2020	San Diego State	9	76	8.4	1	--
2019	Georgia Tech	22	43	2.0	0	--
2017	Georgia Tech	1	1	1.0	0	--
Career		84	301	3.6	2	--

Signature game

SIGNATURE GAME · Week 3 · 2021

W 33–31

vs Utah

44 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT · QBR 68.3 · 87 rush yds (8 car)

Edged out Utah at home in a shootout.

With M. Araiza — 1 SOLO · 2 TOT · 51 LONG · J. Byrd — 1 rec · 4 yds

Signature plays

Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|

The plays that mattered most

fact

Week 9 · Fresno State · 3&9 · Q1 · EPA +3.70Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 39 yds to the FrsSt 46 for a 1ST down
Week 3 · Utah · 3&1 · Q3 · EPA +3.54Lucas Johnson run for 54 yds to the Utah 7 for a 1ST down
Week 1 · UTSA · 2&20 · Q2 · EPA +3.52Lucas Johnson pass complete to BJ Busbee for 31 yds to the TexSA 1 for a 1ST down
Week 12 · UNLV · 2&10 · Q2 · EPA +3.12Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 24 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)
Week 1 · UTSA · 3&10 · Q2 · EPA +3.11Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 11 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)
Week 4 · Towson · 3&9 · Q3 · EPA +2.91Lucas Johnson pass complete to Brionne Penny for 13 yds to the Tows 49 for a 1ST down
Week 1 · UTSA · 2&8 · Q1 · EPA +2.87Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 20 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)
Week 12 · UNLV · 3&6 · Q4 · EPA +2.84Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 7 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)
Week 1 · UTSA · 2&6 · Q3 · EPA +2.81Lucas Johnson pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 24 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)
Week 10 · Hawai'i · 3&14 · Q2 · EPA +2.72Lucas Johnson run for 17 yds to the Hawa 21 for a 1ST down

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2021 season · 11 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA	QBR	Note
Wk 2	W 38-14@ Arizona	0/1	0	0	0	0.0	0.7
Wk 3	W 33-31vs Utah	10/19	44	1	0	2.3	68.3
Wk 4	W 48-21vs Towson	16/25	149	1	1	6.0	32.6
Wk 6	W 31-7vs New Mexico	1/1	3	0	0	3.0	7.6
Wk 7	W 19-13@ San José State	2/3	38	2	0	12.7	89.2
Wk 8	W 20-14@ Air Force	11/13	72	0	0	5.5	58.1
Wk 9	L 20-30vs Fresno State	14/31	220	1	2	7.1	34.6	Season-high 220 yds
Wk 10	W 17-10@ Hawai'i	12/16	99	0	0	6.2	64.1
Wk 11	W 23-21vs Nevada	21/34	176	1	0	5.2	54.1
Wk 12	W 28-20@ UNLV	18/24	192	3	1	8.0	39.2	3 TD passes
Wk 13	W 27-16vs Boise State	9/20	98	0	0	4.9	30.8
Total		114/187	1091	9	4	5.5	43.6

How he plays

Play style

Balanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile.

CFB Index positional classification

Checkdown vs gunslinger · 3rd-and-long

Where the completions actually land

fact

40.0%Completion %

18.5%Conversion/dropback

50.0%Land short of sticks

0INTs

40.0% completion on 3rd-and-8+, but only 18.5% conversion-per-dropback — 50.0% of completions land short of the sticks.

Where completions land is fact — whether incompletions were aimed deep is intent, not recorded here, so this card counts completions only. ~ our read: checkdown by design