Q4 transformation · one-season descriptive
Fourth-quarter fade
2 times this season the team led entering the fourth quarter and lost — and it shows in the tape: 0.510 → 0.139 EPA/dropback into the fourth.
t=-2.09 (n=403/68), one season of descriptive data — never a predictive trait. Across ~200 QB-seasons screened at this threshold, expected false positives run near 5%.












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