Next game: at Massachusetts
Massachusetts’s best edge on Ball State is passing
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Ball State offense against Massachusetts defense
Massachusetts offense against Ball State defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.29 EPA/play | 6 | 7 | 133 / 211 | 63.0 | 1300 | 6.2 | 9 | 6 | 123.2 | 48 | 45.8 | 5.2 | 4.5 | |
Yards by week → Pocket passerBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Starter — 211 pass attempts and 68 carries in 7 games, about as many passes and runs a game as a typical FBS quarterback who plays every week. This week's matchup — QB Luster operates within the system without forcing anything. Wright is the one who operates within the system without forcing anything. Season receipt Yards / attempt6.4 bottom 11th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush yards / carry3.8 76th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Keldric Luster's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| +0.15 EPA/play | 9 | 6 | 23 / 38 | 60.5 | 260 | 6.8 | 1 | 0 | 126.7 | — | 59.5 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Speed Merchant · +0.17 EPA/play | 4 | 8 | 68 | 426 | 6.3 | 9 #16 FBS | 66 | 17.9 | 13.4 | |
Yards by week → Speed merchantCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. Starter — 68 carries and 12 catches in 8 games, about as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Horton hits the crease and outruns the angle. Hill is the one who just keeps getting the ball, series after series. Season receipt Yards / carry6.4 83th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate13.2% 100th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View TJ Horton's full player page | ||||||||||
| Satellite Back · +0.35 EPA/play | 2 | 6 | 47 | 224 | 4.8 | 2 | 49 | — | — | |
Yards by week → Satellite backDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. 47 carries and 10 catches in 6 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Bonds wins in space out of the backfield. Hill is the one who just keeps getting the ball, series after series. Season receipt Receiving share17.5% 90th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception11.2 90th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jalen Bonds's full player page | ||||||||||
| -0.26 EPA/play | 3 | 8 | 35 | 86 | 2.5 | 0 | 20 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.81 EPA/play | 1 | 7 | 25 | 310 | 12.4 | 1 | 46 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 25 catches in 7 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Hamilton moves the chains on third down. Morrow is the one who wins the 50-50 ball at the goal line. Season receipt Yards / reception11.3 bottom 27th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.8 85th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Donovan Hamilton's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.27 EPA/play | 10 | 7 | 23 | 264 | 11.5 | 2 | 55 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine 23 catches and 2 carries in 7 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR McDougle moves the chains on third down. Morrow is the one who wins the 50-50 ball at the goal line. Season receipt Yards / reception10.1 bottom 17th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.3 bottom 24th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jamarion McDougle's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.45 EPA/play | 11 | 6 | 16 | 217 | 13.6 | 1 | 65 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine This week's matchup — WR Thacker moves the chains on third down. Morrow is the one who wins the 50-50 ball at the goal line. Season receipt Yards / reception8.2 bottom 7th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume16 bottom 21th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Isaiah Thacker's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.87 EPA/play | 5 | 4 | 21 | 212 | 10.1 | 2 | 33 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Smith moves the chains on third down. Morrow is the one who wins the 50-50 ball at the goal line. Season receipt Yards / reception10.6 bottom 21th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.9 89th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jabari Smith's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.35 EPA/play | 7 | 5 | 12 | 90 | 7.5 | 0 | 23 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Nelson moves the chains on third down. Morrow is the one who wins the 50-50 ball at the goal line. Season receipt Yards / reception8.0 bottom 6th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View CJ Nelson's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.92 EPA/play | 14 | 4 | 5 | 75 | 15 | 0 | 26 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Complete TE · -0.09 EPA/play | 24 | 6 | 10 | 71 | 7.1 | 1 | 20 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. This week's matchup — TE Hoover shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Walker is the one who shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Season receipt Yards / reception4.9 bottom 5th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)-0.1 bottom 5th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Tate Hoover's full player page | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 56 | 8 | 20 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 20 tackles in 8 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate20.0% 67th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Ameir Glenn's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 39 | 6 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 121 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate0.0% bottom 5th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Maverick Gracio's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 94 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate8.3% bottom 28th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Ka'Shawn Thomas's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 7 | 7 | 12 | 5 | 4.5 | 2 | 1 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 121 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate37.5% 95th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Ben Marsh's full player page | |||||||
| 54 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 99 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 58 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 10 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thumper | 16 | 8 | 37 | 17 | 20 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 37 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 62 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate9.5% 54th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate6.8% 80th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kaleb Stewart's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 6 | 8 | 36 | 13 | 23 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 36 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Cincear Lewis's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 27 | 8 | 36 | 16 | 20 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 36 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Gavin Forsha's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 25 | 5 | 26 | 16 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Sideline-to-sidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 83 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 89th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate0.0% bottom 23th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Mikeah Webster's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 26 | 6 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 2.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2025 class View Lucas Szymborski's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 11 | 6 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume19 bottom 14th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate15.8% 86th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Layton Starks's full player page | |||||||||
| 9 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 31 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 48 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid Nickel | 1 | 6 | 36 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 36 tackles in 6 games. More tackles a game than most FBS defensive backs who play every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman View Sterling Smith's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 14 | 8 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 4.5 | 1 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 32 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate9.4% 58th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Anthony Pinnace III's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 4 | 8 | 32 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 32 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate6.2% bottom 42th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Willizhuan Yates's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 2 | 8 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 32 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate3.1% bottom 27th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Quentavius Scandrett's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 5 | 6 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate5.6% bottom 38th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Chris Jackson's full player page | |||||||
| 12 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 13 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 2 #51 FBS | 0 | 0 | |
| 28 | 7 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 18 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| — | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 21 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 8 | 5/8 | 62.5 | 19/20 | 34 | 54 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 32 | 8 | 37 | 1634 | 44.2 | 70 | 15 | 2 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Speed Merchant · +0.17 EPA/play | 4 | 8 | 13 | 274 | 21.1 | 0 | 49 |
Biggest plays from Ball State’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Ball State’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q1, 3:07 · Northwestern up 7Aidan Chiles finds Griffin Wilde for a 19-yard touchdownBall State at Northwestern, week 6Q1, 3:07 · Northwestern 14, Ball State 092Capped a 92-yard drive92Capped a 92-yard driveCapped a 92-yard driveGriffin Wilde 19 yd pass from Aidan Chiles (Jackson Kleather Kick)▶Watch from this play
Q2, 8:20 · Ball State down 21TJ Horton runs 1 yard for a touchdownBall State at Northwestern, week 6Q2, 8:20 · Ball State 7, Northwestern 217-21score after the play7-21score after the playT.Horton rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play- Q3, 10:12 · Northwestern up 17Aidan Chiles finds Drew Wagner for a 12-yard touchdownBall State at Northwestern, week 6Q3, 10:12 · Northwestern 38, Ball State 1438-14score after the play38-14score after the playNo Huddle A.Chiles pass complete short left to D.Wagner caught at BSU05, for 12 yards to the BSU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q2, 14:49 · Ball State down 14Ball State is sackedBall State at Northwestern, week 6Q2, 14:49 · Ball State 0, Northwestern 140-14score after the play0-14score after the playK.Luster sacked for loss of 8 yards to the BSU31 (M.Kilbane, P.Roth)▶Watch from this play
- Q2, 10:52 · Northwestern up 14Caleb Komolafe runs 14 yards for a touchdownBall State at Northwestern, week 6Q2, 10:52 · Northwestern 21, Ball State 021-0score after the play21-0score after the playNo Huddle C.Komolafe rush middle for 14 yards gain to the BSU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q2, 3:04 · Northwestern up 17Robert Fitzgerald takes an interception 15 yards for a pick-sixBall State at Northwestern, week 6Q2, 3:04 · Northwestern 31, Ball State 7First pick-six for Northwestern since 2024First pick-six for Northwestern since 2024K.Luster pass intercepted by R.Fitzgerald at BSU15 R.Fitzgerald return 15 yards to the BSU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
Ball State lost to Toledo after being 85% to win; the closest win was at Bowling Green, down to 4%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Ball State during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Ball State
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · Ball StateKaleb Stewart leads Ball State with 37 tackles through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+21 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Ball State fields a limited explosive, big-play offense behind a porous defense, though it gives up the big play.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Ball State reads strongest in explosive plays (top 16%) and red-zone finish (top 40%); the crux lives in red-zone defense, where Ball State sits at the 0th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Ball State is worth +7.4 points more at home than on the road.
Top tenth of FBS, 96th percentile of 133 programs
49% at home, 25% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (19-20 home, 13-38 away). Interval ±3.6.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Ball State has beaten the number by +4.1 more at home than away over 97 games. That is inside the ±5.5 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Scheumann Stadium seats 22,500 and has averaged 46% full (10,445, 25 games reported). Visitors get here easily: a median 212 miles trip since 2018, the 8th-shortest of 135 FBS venues. Whatever the band above is picking up, it isn't the flight. For the home side it is genuinely home ground: 33% of the 2026 roster (35 of 106 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 46 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Deep threatDonovan Hamilton is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
- Deep threatQian Magwood is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
TJ Horton and Jalen Bonds split the carries (67/114 vs 47/114) -- but the job isn't split the same way. TJ Horton produces in bigger chunks.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Jamarion McDougle (WR) and Tate Hoover (TE) split the targets (40/45 vs 5/45) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Tate Hoover produces in bigger chunks.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Ball State actually scores
32nd percentile quality, 72nd percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Ball State’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 41st percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 30th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Ball State hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
31st percentile success on standard downs, 52nd on passing downs — a 21-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Ball State by half
1st-half offense ranks 54th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 30th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Ball State’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.10; 58th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.05. The widest gap came in week 2: -0.24 raw vs. -0.01 adjusted.
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Ball State’s passing game completes a completion rate below the FBS mean (66.2% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 216-play sample) — mid-pack, 51 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Ball State’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (68.0% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 166-play sample) — mid-pack, 106 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
Recovering 40% of the fumbles they've forced — running cold vs. the ~48% league rate.
2 of 5 forced fumbles recovered; 3 of 6 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Getting hands on the ball but not cashing in: 11% of disruptions converted, vs. the ~18% league rate.
2 interceptions of 19 disrupted passes (17 deflected, 2 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
Losing the penalty battle: 64 penalties committed vs. 56 drawn on opponents, a 68-yard deficit.
565 penalty yards committed vs. 497 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Ball State
Most similar programs · Ball StateReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Weather
Scheumann Stadium, Muncie, IN
Usual during the game around Nov 11: 47°, between 36° and 61° in about 7 in 10 games (31 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 54°, and 8 in 10 ran between 34° and 79° (57 of 59 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.