Next game: vs UCLA
UCLA’s best edge on Minnesota is running
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Minnesota offense against UCLA defense
UCLA offense against Minnesota defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.12 EPA/play | 5 | 8 | 161 / 259 | 62.2 | 1592 #68 FBS | 6.1 | 10 #72 FBS | 6 | 121.9 | 36 | 49.2 | 5.5 | 3.4 | |
Yards by week → Pocket passerBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Impact starter — 259 pass attempts and 24 carries in 8 games, about as many passes and runs a game as a typical FBS quarterback who plays every week. This week's matchup — QB Lindsey operates within the system without forcing anything. Becht is the one who operates within the system without forcing anything. Season receipt Yards / attempt6.6 bottom 15th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush yards / carry-1.6 bottom 4th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Drake Lindsey's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Satellite Back · -0.11 EPA/play | 23 | 8 | 64 | 381 | 6.0 | 1 | 71 | 20.6 | 14.3 | |
Yards by week → Satellite back· Boom-or-bustDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Starter — 64 carries and 20 catches in 8 games, about as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Jr. wins in space out of the backfield. Hansen is the one who just keeps getting the ball, series after series. Season receipt Receiving share23.8% 99th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / carry6.8 91th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View TJ Thomas Jr.'s full player page | ||||||||||
| Satellite Back · -0.07 EPA/play | 1 | 7 | 83 | 217 | 2.6 | 5 | 27 | 24.7 | 4.9 | |
Yards by week → Satellite backDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. Starter — 83 carries and 22 catches in 7 games, more touches a game than most FBS running backs who play every week. This week's matchup — RB Taylor wins in space out of the backfield. Hansen is the one who just keeps getting the ball, series after series. Season receipt Receiving share21.0% 97th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / carry3.1 bottom 3th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Darius Taylor's full player page | ||||||||||
| +0.12 EPA/play | 9 | 7 | 29 | 128 | 4.4 | 1 | 11 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.40 EPA/play | 11 | 8 | 46 | 460 | 10 | 1 | 55 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Return threatReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. a house-call threat every time he fields it Impact starter — 46 catches, 3 carries and 1 pass attempt in 8 games, more catches a game than nearly every FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Tracy moves the chains on third down. Howard is the one who beats you over the top. Season receipt Yards / reception10.5 bottom 20th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume46 96th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint View Javon Tracy's full player page | ||||||||
| Slot Technician · +0.28 EPA/play | 13 | 8 | 33 | 395 | 12.0 | 1 | 34 | |
Yards by week → Slot technicianRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. 33 catches and 2 carries in 8 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Jennings wins underneath on volume and route precision. Howard is the one who beats you over the top. Season receipt Reception volume33 74th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Plays like View Noah Jennings's full player page | ||||||||
| Jump-Ball Target · +0.43 EPA/play | 8 | 7 | 18 | 263 | 14.6 | 3 | 42 | |
Yards by week → Jump-ball targetWins contested catches at the goal line. Size and catch radius are the weapons. This week's matchup — WR Smith wins the 50-50 ball at the goal line. Howard is the one who beats you over the top. Season receipt TD rate16.7% 88th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume18 bottom 26th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jalen Smith's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.89 EPA/play | 4 | 4 | 7 | 117 | 16.7 | 2 | 39 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| -0.11 EPA/play | 19 | 3 | 6 | 47 | 7.8 | 1 | 27 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 3 | 8 | 30 | 15 | 7 | 5 #38 FBS | 3 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Impact starter — 30 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate23.3% 77th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View T.J. Bush's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | — | 8 | 17 | 4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 2 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate20.6% 69th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Anthony Smith's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 99 | 7 | 17 | 4 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2023 class View Theorin Randle's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 70 | 7 | 15 | 5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight330 lb 95th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Naquan Crowder's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 11 | 7 | 14 | 7 | 4.5 | 3 | 2 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate32.1% 94th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Karter Menz's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 93 | 5 | 11 | 8 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate50.0% 100th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Riley Sunram's full player page | |||||||
| 1 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| 90 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 6 | 8 | 62 | 33 | 29 | 3.5 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Starter — 62 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than most FBS linebackers who play every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume62 92th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 21th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Maverick Baranowski's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 19 | 8 | 41 | 25 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Sideline-to-sidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 41 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 83 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 88th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate4.9% 72th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Joey Gerlach's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 49 | 7 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 0.5 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate10.5% 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume19 bottom 14th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Matt Kingsbury's full player page | |||||||||
| 46 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 14 | 8 | 47 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Starter — 47 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than most FBS defensive backs who play every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume47 90th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Kerry Brown's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 4 | 8 | 45 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Starter — 45 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume45 87th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Zack Harden's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 17 | 8 | 35 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. 35 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume35 62th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View John Nestor's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 5 | 8 | 31 | 6 #43 FBS | 1 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 31 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate19.4% 94th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Aydan West's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 22 | 6 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 15th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Mekhai Smith's full player page | |||||||
| 7 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 21 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 9 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weapon | — | 7 | 15/15 | 100 | 14/14 | 59 | 60 |
| 36 | 1 | 1/1 | 100 | 7/7 | 10 | 31 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinner | 42 | 8 | 41 | 1753 | 42.8 | 60 | 18 | 0 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +2.74 EPA/play | 89 | 7 | 11 | 256 | 23.3 | 0 | 42 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.40 EPA/play | 11 | 8 | 21 | 346 | 16.5 | 2 | 87 |
Biggest plays from Minnesota’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Minnesota’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q4, 3:46 · Iowa down 7, ties itIowa scores a touchdownIowa at Minnesota, week 8Q4, 3:46 · Iowa 10, Minnesota 103:46Game-tying touchdown for Iowa with 3:46 left3:46Game-tying touchdown for Iowa with 3:46 leftGame-tying touchdown for Iowa with 3:46 leftH.Brown pass complete deep middle to R.Vander Zee caught at MINN12, for 37 yards to the MINN00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN kick attempt good, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q2, 2:48 · Michigan breaks the tieNathaniel Staehling takes an interception 79 yards for a pick-sixMichigan at Minnesota, week 5Q2, 2:48 · Michigan 14, Minnesota 779Pick-six79Pick-sixPick-sixD.Lindsey pass intercepted by N.Staehling at MICH21 QB hurried by J.Hill N.Staehling return 79 yards to the MINN00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q1, 0:22 · Mississippi State up 4Fluff Bothwell runs 5 yards for a touchdownMississippi State at Minnesota, week 2Q1, 0:22 · Mississippi State 14, Minnesota 3▲23%Mississippi State’s chance to win, 62% to 85%▲23%Mississippi State’s chance to win, 62% to 85%F.Bothwell rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MINN00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
CBS Sports College Football
Q1, 1:57 · Minnesota up 7Drake Lindsey finds Jalen Smith for a 9-yard touchdownMinnesota at Washington, week 4Q1, 1:57 · Minnesota 14, Washington 0▲18%Minnesota’s chance to win, 43% to 61%▲18%Minnesota’s chance to win, 43% to 61%Jalen Smith 9 yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)▶Watch from this play- Q1, 6:36 · Minnesota tiedDrake Lindsey finds Quayd Hendryx for a 15-yard touchdownMinnesota at Washington, week 4Q1, 6:36 · Minnesota 7, Washington 0Minnesota opened the scoringMinnesota opened the scoringD.Lindsey pass complete short right to Q.Hendryx caught at WASH00, for 15 yards to the WASH00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q4, 1:53 · Washington down 10Demond Williams Jr. runs 13 yards for a touchdownMinnesota at Washington, week 4Q4, 1:53 · Washington 24, Minnesota 27Washington cut the deficit to 3 in the fourth quarterWashington cut the deficit to 3 in the fourth quarterD.Williams Jr. rush middle for 13 yards gain to the MINN00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
Minnesota lost at Indiana after being 93% to win; the closest win was against Michigan, down to 25%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Minnesota during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Minnesota
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · MinnesotaMaverick Baranowski leads Minnesota with 62 tackles through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+14 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Minnesota fields a struggling pass-first offense behind an elite defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Minnesota reads strongest in field position (O) (top 3%) and EPA allowed (top 19%); the crux lives in red-zone finish, where Minnesota sits at the 3rd percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Minnesota is worth +4.7 points more at home than on the road.
Middle of FBS, 60th percentile of 133 programs
67% at home, 46% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (35-17 home, 19-22 away). Interval ±4.0.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Minnesota has beaten the number by +3.4 more at home than away over 98 games. That is inside the ±6.6 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Huntington Bank Stadium seats 50,850 and has averaged 92% full (46,832, 33 games reported). Visitors cover a median 509 miles to get here since 2018 — 47th-longest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 16% of the 2026 roster (17 of 106 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 57 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- CloserDarius Taylor gets meaningfully more work in the fourth quarter with a lead than his overall workload would predict, mostly in real, competitive games: not just mop-up snaps.
- UnderdogJameson Geers produces at a notably lower rate when his team is an underdog than when favored: he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
- Garbage timeFame Ijeboi sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach.
- Deep threatJalen Smith is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
- Deep threatLemeke Brockington is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Darius Taylor and TJ Thomas Jr. split the carries (81/144 vs 63/144) -- but the job isn't split the same way. TJ Thomas Jr. produces in bigger chunks.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Javon Tracy (WR) and Roman Voss (TE) split the targets (61/70 vs 9/70) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Roman Voss produces in bigger chunks.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Minnesota actually scores
4th percentile quality, 95th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Minnesota’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 18th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 5th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Minnesota hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
32nd percentile success on standard downs, 4th on passing downs — a 28-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Minnesota by half
1st-half offense ranks 34th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 8th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Minnesota’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.02; 11th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's -0.01. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.34 raw vs. 0.02 adjusted.
Tendency drift
How Minnesota’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Minnesota’s passing game completes a completion rate below the FBS mean (65.1% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 245-play sample) — mid-pack, 38 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Minnesota’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (63.5% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 176-play sample) — mid-pack, 13 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
The bounces have gone their way on their own fumbles: 62% recovered, vs. ~52% expected.
5 of 8 own fumbles recovered themselves; 6 of 13 forced fumbles recovered, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Cashing in at a normal clip: 22% of disrupted passes intercepted, close to ~18% league-wide.
8 interceptions of 37 disrupted passes (29 deflected, 8 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
The flags haven't favored them: 48 penalties committed vs. 49 drawn on opponents, 69 yards behind.
432 penalty yards committed vs. 363 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Minnesota
Most similar programs · MinnesotaReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Weather
Huntington Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Usual during the game around Nov 7: 41°, between 23° and 53° in about 7 in 10 games (33 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 52°, and 8 in 10 ran between 37° and 76° (47 of 48 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.