Oklahoma

1-1AP #24

SEC · Brent Venables, year 5 (33-21) · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) · 86,112

The nationAP #24 · Coaches #21down 13 from last week
The model#16 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #10 (+21.7) · FPI #12
The marketOklahoma by 23.5vs New Mexico · our model 82% Oklahoma · a number, not a pick

LastL 10–17 at Michigan · Sat Sep 12 · Owen Heinecke 1 sacks, 1 TFL, 10 tackles

Nextvs New Mexico · Sat Sep 19 · 7:30 pm ET · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) · Oklahoma by 23.5 · series 2-0, won the last 2 · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2

Key stats — 2026 — FBS rank
Points/game
30.5
Pts allowed/game
8.5
Total yards/gmT-#106 / 138 · 23rd pct
345.0
Rush yards/gm#101 / 138 · 27th pct
135.0
Pass yards/gm#89 / 138 · 36th pct
210.0
Yards allowed/gm#20 / 138 · 86th pct
230.5
Rush yds allowed/gmT-#80 / 138 · 42nd pct
132.0
SacksT-#20 / 138 · 80th pct
6
3rd-down conv#89 / 138 · 36th pct
37.5%
All 82 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
690345.0/gm5.75/playT-#106 / 138 · 23rd pctT-#62 / 69 · 10th pct#16 / 16 · 3rd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
461230.5/gm4.04/play#20 / 138 · 86th pct#19 / 69 · 73rd pct#7 / 16 · 59th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush yards
Team
270135.0/gm2.25/play#101 / 138 · 27th pct#51 / 69 · 27th pct#14 / 16 · 16th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
264132.0/gm2.32/playT-#80 / 138 · 42nd pct#55 / 69 · 21st pct#14 / 16 · 16th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush carries
Team
6834.0/gmT-#88 / 138 · 35th pct#45 / 69 · 36th pct#13 / 16 · 22nd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
7939.5/gmT-#109 / 138 · 21st pctT-#63 / 69 · 9th pct#16 / 16 · 3rd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush TDs
Team
21.0/gmT-#106 / 138 · 18th pctT-#56 / 69 · 14th pctT-#14 / 16 · 12th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
21.0/gmT-#53 / 138 · 50th pctT-#34 / 69 · 36th pctT-#9 / 16 · 31st pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Net pass yards
Team
420210.0/gm3.50/play#89 / 138 · 36th pct#55 / 69 · 21st pct#16 / 16 · 3rd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
19798.5/gm1.73/play#3 / 138 · 98th pct#2 / 69 · 98th pct#1 / 16 · 97th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass attempts
Team
5226.0/gmT-#91 / 138 · 32nd pctT-#54 / 69 · 22nd pct#15 / 16 · 9th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
3517.5/gmT-#2 / 138 · 99th pct#2 / 69 · 98th pct#1 / 16 · 97th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Completions
Team
2914.5/gmT-#111 / 138 · 19th pctT-#60 / 69 · 13th pct#16 / 16 · 3rd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
199.5/gm#4 / 138 · 97th pct#4 / 69 · 95th pct#1 / 16 · 97th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass TDs
Team
42.0/gmT-#48 / 138 · 57th pctT-#33 / 69 · 46th pctT-#10 / 16 · 34th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
00.0/gmT-#1 / 138 · 96th pctT-#1 / 69 · 93rd pct#1 / 16 · 97th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Passer rating allowed#8 / 91 · 92nd pct#6 / 41 · 87th pct#1 / 11 · 95th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
95.995.9
Interceptions thrown
Team
10.5/gmT-#52 / 138 · 49th pctT-#25 / 69 · 53rd pctT-#8 / 16 · 44th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
00.0/gmT-#1 / 138 · 92nd pctT-#1 / 69 · 93rd pctT-#1 / 16 · 94th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Sacks (def)
Team
63.0/gmT-#20 / 138 · 80th pctT-#11 / 69 · 78th pctT-#5 / 16 · 69th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
42.0/gmT-#74 / 138 · 37th pctT-#42 / 69 · 30th pctT-#10 / 16 · 34th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
Tackles for loss
Team
168.0/gmT-#18 / 138 · 86th pctT-#10 / 69 · 84th pctT-#3 / 16 · 81st pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
136.5/gmT-#109 / 138 · 18th pctT-#63 / 69 · 8th pctT-#13 / 16 · 19th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
First downs
Team
3517.5/gmT-#109 / 138 · 20th pctT-#62 / 69 · 10th pct#16 / 16 · 3rd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
2412.0/gmT-#16 / 138 · 88th pctT-#15 / 69 · 78th pct#5 / 16 · 72nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down conv
Team
94.5/gmT-#85 / 138 · 32nd pctT-#50 / 69 · 24th pctT-#12 / 16 · 25th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
63.0/gmT-#12 / 138 · 86th pctT-#10 / 69 · 80th pctT-#5 / 16 · 66th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down att
Team
2412.0/gmT-#81 / 138 · 38th pctT-#39 / 69 · 42nd pct#10 / 16 · 41st pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
2613.0/gmT-#43 / 138 · 66th pctT-#21 / 69 · 66th pctT-#5 / 16 · 69th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down conv
Team
00.0/gmT-#114 / 138 · 9th pctT-#52 / 69 · 13th pctT-#15 / 16 · 6th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
21.0/gmT-#71 / 138 · 37th pctT-#40 / 69 · 32nd pctT-#9 / 16 · 41st pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down att
Team
10.5/gmT-#119 / 138 · 9th pctT-#55 / 69 · 14th pctT-#15 / 16 · 6th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
31.5/gmT-#54 / 138 · 52nd pctT-#30 / 69 · 49th pctT-#6 / 16 · 62nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Time of possession
Team
57:1528:38/gm#101 / 138 · 27th pct#52 / 69 · 25th pct#15 / 16 · 9th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
62:4531:22/gm#91 / 138 · 34th pct#52 / 69 · 25th pct#15 / 16 · 9th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats — 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
+0.21 EPA/play10228 / 5056.0414
#73 FBS
8.34
#36 FBS
1148.05276.38.05.7
Running Backs
Player#GCarYdsAvgTDLongStuff%10+%
+0.10 EPA/play92241144.8113
Receivers
Player#GRecYdsAvgTDLong
Move TE · +0.71 EPA/play812813717.1143
+0.44 EPA/play112610417.3148
+0.09 EPA/play1268514.2134

2026 stat leaders · Oklahoma

through 2 games

Owen Heinecke leads Oklahoma with 17 tackles through 2 games.

1. Owen Heinecke LB 17 tackles
2. Rocky Beers TE 137 receiving yards
3. Taylor Wein DL 11 tackles
4. Reggie Powers III DB 11 tackles
5. John Mateer QB 414 passing yards
How They Play · 2025

Oklahoma fields a struggling offense behind an elite, gives up the big play defense.

Offense
25th pct EPA/play
Defense
98th pct EPA allowed
Defensive shape
24th pct at limiting explosive plays

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

The Savant Card · Oklahoma · 2025

Oklahoma reads strongest in success rate allowed (top 1%) and epa allowed (top 2%); the crux lives in rushing epa, where Oklahoma sits at the 16th percentile.

offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.10
25th
Success Rate +0.40
28th
Explosive Plays +1.28
58th
Rushing EPA +0.00
17th

defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA Allowed -0.04
98th
Success Rate Allowed +0.29
99th
Explosive Plays Allowed +1.32
24th
Passing EPA Allowed +0.04
94th

hidden math · special situations

Passing EPA +0.20
32nd
Rushing EPA Allowed -0.09
98th
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 13 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 136 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · Oklahoma · 2018–present · FBS opponents

Oklahoma is worth +5.5 points more at home than on the road.

Top third of FBS, 72nd percentile of 133 programs

86% at home, 63% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (42–7 home, 22–13 away). Interval ±4.0.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, Oklahoma has beaten the number by +1.6 more at home than away over 69 games — inside the ±7.1 that many games can resolve. Results here cannot tell the flat number apart from the building, and that is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.

Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) seats 86,112 and has averaged 97% full (83,665, 27 games reported). Visitors cover a median 513 miles to get here since 2018 — 47th-longest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 16% of the 2026 roster (17 of 107 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 53 home games since 2018.

Home42–7Away22–13Edge+5.5 ±4.0Visitor trip513 mi

More in this tab

Scheme claimsFive specific, testable claims about how this team plays.

Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected

Oklahoma's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time

Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 15th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 6th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.

league medianRaw 4th quarter…Competitive snaps only · 6th pctileWorst in FBSBest in FBS
Source CFB Zeitgeist · CFBD play-by-play, garbage-time adjusted by pre-play margin
Tendency driftHow this coordinator's calls have drifted since arriving.

Season by season

How Oklahoma’s current staff calls plays, year over year

Offense: Ben Arbuckle (2025–2026)
1st-down pass rate
2025: 40% → 2026: 30% · 10-pt range · #91 of 184 · a typical amount
Red-zone pass rate
2025: 30% → 2026: 30% · 0-pt range · #183 of 182 · less than most
RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank Oklahoma

CFB Zeitgeist

#16

+7.8

SP+

#10

+21.7

FPI

#12

+17.8

Elo

#17

1783

The national models put Oklahoma between 10th and 17th nationally — CFB Zeitgeist agrees, slotting them 16th.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · Oklahoma

Reads like

Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

Historical echoPrograms whose arc bent the same way -- then what happened.

Historical echo

Oklahoma’s slide has precedent — and 2 of the 4 closest kept falling.

Programs whose stature fell in the same shape. The grey line is their decline; the color is what came next for them.

Alabama 1981–1986
clawed back
Florida 2012–2017
kept sliding
Texas A&M 1957–1962
kept sliding
Syracuse 1971–1976
stayed down

An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration, medium confidence; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.

ConditionsThe weather and altitude visitors have to deal with.
Venue texture

70°F average kickoff temp; 6% of games had measurable precipitation; 10 mph average wind.

Based on 78 home games with weather data.

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